20191112 10xのための逆説 #pmconfjp 2019

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݁࿦ ࣄલืूͨ͠2" ձ৔2"

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$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ఆઆ ʮૉૣ͍վળʯ͕Ͱ͖ΔϦʔϯɾΞδϟΠϧͳ ૊৫͕ྑ͍

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ͲɺॳظʹϦʔϯվળ͕ਖ਼ղͱ͸ͳΓ͑ͳ͍ݱ৔͸ແ਺ʹ͋Δɻ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ఆઆ UP$ٸ଎ͳ੒௕ UP#ੵΈ্͛ࣜͰͷ੒௕

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$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ఆઆ ਓ͕ཉ͕͠Δ΋ͷΛͭ͘Ε

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ٯઆ γʔϯͰඞͣ࢖ΘΕΔϞϊΛ࡞Ε ࣮ࡏ͢ΔਓͷͨΊʹɺͱ͍͏ͷ͸େલఏɻۃΊͯ۩ମతͳγʔϯͱίϯςΩετʹରͯ͠ͲΕ ͚ͩద੾ͳϓϩμΫτͰ͋Δ͔ͷ΄͏͕ͣͬͱॏཁɻ ϖϧιφͱ͍͏֓೦͸޿ࠂ$%͕ੜΈग़ͨ֓͠೦ɻ୭͕͍ͭͲ͜Ͱɺͱ͍͏৘ใ͕ᐆດɻ ʮ౎৺ʷڞಇ͖ʷࢠҭͯੈଳϫʔϚϚʯͱ͍͏ϖϧιφΛ͓͍ͯͭͬͨ͘λϕϦʔ͸ࣅͨΑ͏ ͳਓͰ΋ࢗ͞Δਓͱࢗ͞Βͳ͍ਓׂ͕Εͨɻಉ͡ʮྉཧʯͰ΋ɺγʔϯʹΑͬͯҙࢥܾఆ΍Ϗ
ϔΠϏΞ͸มԽ͢ΔɻγʔϯͷྠֲΛଊ͑Δ΂͖ɻ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ఆઆ PdM͸XXX͸Ͱ͖ͨ΄͏͕͍͍ FYΤϯδχΞϦϯάɺσβΠϯɺσʔλ෼ੳʜFUD

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ٯઆ Ͱ͖ͨ΄͏͏͕͍͍ͷ͸౰ͨΓલ͕ͩɺඞਢͰ ͸ͳ͍ɻʮߴ͍εΩϧʯ΍ʮεΩϧΛ൑ఆͰ͖ ΔεΩϧʯΛ"/%Ͱෳ਺࣋ͭɻ 1E.ͷ੹຿͕ϓϩμΫτͷ੒ޭͰ͋Δͱ͢Δͱɺ999Ͱఆٛ͞ΕΔΑ͏ͳ࣮૷εΩϧͱ͸શ͘ ҧ͏࣍ݩͰ੒൱͕෼͔ΕΔ͔ͱࢥ͏ɻ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ఆઆ άϩʔεϋοΫ͸ख਺͕ॏཁ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ٯઆ ख਺ΑΓҐஔ͕ॏཁ ͳʹΑΓάϩʔεϋοΫ͕ඞཁͳϓϩμΫτ͸ ۃΊͯগͳ͍ ʮ୭΋͕௨ա͢Δ৔ॴʯ͔ʮ࠷΋ॏཁͳίϯόʔδϣϯͷ௚લʯҎ֎ͷࢼߦࡨޡ͸ຆͲ͕ె࿑ɻ ͦͯ͠ԿΑΓɺάϩʔεϋοΫ͢ΔΑΓ΋τϥΫγϣϯ͕ੜ·ΕΔͨΊͷάϥϯυσβΠϯͷ ΄͏͕ͣͬͱ਺஋ʹγϏΞʹޮ͍ͯ͘ΔɻτϥΫγϣϯ͕ͳ͍΋ͷΛάοϩʔεϋοΫͰڊେ
αʔϏεʹ੒௕ͤͨ͞ࣄྫ͸ͳ͍ɻ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE Կ͕ݴ͍͍͔ͨ ݖҖతͳࣄྫ͔Βಋ͔Εͨఆઆ͸ࣗ਎ͷϓϩμ Ϋτͷ੒ޭͱ΄΅ແؔ܎  ʮ/FUqJYͷ"#5FTU݁Ռʯʮ"JSCOCͷػցֶशద༻ࣄྫʯͳͲɺҰݟࢀߟʹͰ͖ͦ͏ͳʮݖҖత ͳࣄྫʯ͸ແ਺ʹଘࡏ͠ɺ͔ͦ͜Βଟ͘ͷఆઆ͕ಋ͔Ε͍ͯΔɻ͜͏͍ͬͨࣄྫΛҰ௨ΓΛࢼ ͠΋΄ͱΜͲࣄۀΛલʹ͢͢ΊΔ݁Ռ͸ಋ͚ͳ͔ͬͨɻ6ODPODFOTVTSJHIUΛࣗΒ୳͔͢͠ͳ ͍ɻ

ࣄલืूͨ͠2"

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE 2ఆٛ ϓϩμΫτͱ͸ʁ1.'ͱ͸ʁϕϯνϚʔΫͱ ͸ʁͲ͏ఆٛ͞Ε͍ͯ·͔͢ʁ w 1.'͸Ͳ͏ఆٛ͞Ε͍ͯ·͔͢ʁ w ϕϯνϚʔΫΛબͿج४
w ϓϩμΫτͷఆٛͱ͸ʁϓϩμΫτͷ෼ྨํ๏ɺ؅ཧํ๏

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ϓϩμΫτ ސ٬͕৮ΕΔ΋ͷ 1E. ઓུͱ࣮૷ΛҰகͤ͞ΔܦӦऀ 1.' σϑΥϧτͰੜ͖͍ͯΔঢ়ଶ ϕϯνϚʔΫ
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$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE 1E.ʹඞཁͳࢿ࣭ͱ͸ͳΜͰ͔͢ʁ w ͜Ε͸࣋ͬͯͯ΄͍͍ͬͯ͠͏εΩϧΛͭॱʹ͍͋͛ͯͩ͘͞ w ϓϩμΫτͱͯ͠࠷ॳ͔Β׬੒ਤ͕͋Δͱ͖ʹɺϦʔϯɾ.71ͱݴΘΕΔλΠϛϯάͰϢʔβʔͷϖΠϯɾχʔζΛਂງ Γͯ͠ίΞϢʔβʔΛ͖ͬͪΓ௫Έ੾ΔɾϢʔβʔڭҭΛ͢Δͱ͍͏෦෼ͱɺ ਺ࣈΛݟͳ͕Β͸લఏͰ
ΑΓଟ͘ͷ఺Λղ ܾͯ͠ઢʹͳΔͱ͍ͬͨΑ͏ͳଟػೳԽ͍ͯ͘͠෦෼͸Ͳ͏΍ͬͯόϥϯεײΛͱ͍ͬͯ·͔͢ɻ΋͘͠͸ఆྔ஋ͩͬͨΒ ԿΛࢀߟʹ൑அ͠·͔͢ɻλϕϦʔͩͱݙཱ࡞੒ˠ࣮ࡍʹ·ͱΊͯωοτεʔύʔͰߪೖͰ͖Δͱ͍ͬͨΑ͏ʹͳΓ·͠ ͕ͨɺͦͷؒͷҙࢥܾఆͷͱ͖ʹԿΛߟ͍͑ͯͨͷ͔஌Γ͍ͨͰ͢ɻ w ͿͬͪΌ͚ΤϯδχΞܦݧͷͳ͍1E.ͬͯͲ͏Ͱ͔͢ʁ w ϓϩμΫτͮ͘Γʹ͸ɺzؾ͖ͮz͕ॏཁͱ͓ͬ͠Ό͍ͬͯ·͕ͨ͠ɺzؾ͖ͮྗzΛ৳͹͢ʹ͸Ͳ͏͍͏͜ͱΛ΍Ε͹͍͍͔ ͱ͍͏͜ͱΛڭ͍͑ͯͩ͘͞ w ૑ۀ࣌ʹੴ઒͞ΜͱͳΒճʹճ͸ϗʔϜϥϯΛૂ͑Δɺͱ͍͏࿩ΛΩϟϦΞϋοΫͷهࣄͰ͞Ε͍ͯͨͱࢥ͍·͕͢ɺݱ ঢ়ֶशͰ͖ͨԾઆͷதͰɺϗʔϜϥϯΛଧͭͨΊʹඞཁͩͱײ͍ͯ͡Δ͜ͱΛڭ͍͑ͯͩ͘͞ w δϡχΞͷ1E.Λ࠾༻͢Δͱ͖ʹɺॏࢹ͢ΔϙΠϯτΛڭ͍͖͍͑ͯͨͩͨͰ͢ɻ 2ࢿ࣭

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$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ݸਓతʹࠩ͸ͳ͍ɺλΠτϧ͘Β͍Ͱ͸ ҙࢤͷ௿͍ਓ͸ىۀՈʹͳΕͳ͍Α͏ʹɺ1E.ͱ͍͏৬ۀ͸ͦ΋ͦ΋Ͱ͖ͳ͍ͷͰ͸ɻ "ىۀՈͱͷҧ͍

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ૊৫ɾνʔϜΛ࡞Δ্Ͱେ੾ʹ͍ͯ͠Δߟ͑ํ ͸ԿͰ͔͢ʁ 2νʔϜϏϧσΟϯά

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ετϨʔτͰ͋Δ͜ͱ ૑ۀऀͱܦӦऀͱגओͱैۀһʹͱͬͯ w Ϣʔβʔͷ੒ޭɺͱ͍͏ΰʔϧ͕ετϨʔτͰ͋Δ͜ͱ w ΰʔϧୡ੒ʹ൐͏ΠϯηϯςΟϒ͕ετϨʔτͰ͋Δ͜ͱ w
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$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ίΞϢʔβʔͷମݧΛߏங͢Δ෦෼ͱଟػೳԽ ΍ച্ͷόϥϯεΛͲ͏ͱΔ͔ʁ w ϓϩμΫτͱͯ͠࠷ॳ͔Β׬੒ਤ͕͋Δͱ͖ʹɺϦʔϯɾ.71ͱݴΘΕΔλΠϛϯάͰϢʔβʔͷϖΠϯɾχʔζΛਂງ Γͯ͠ίΞϢʔβʔΛ͖ͬͪΓ௫Έ੾ΔɾϢʔβʔڭҭΛ͢Δͱ͍͏෦෼ͱɺ ਺ࣈΛݟͳ͕Β͸લఏͰ ΑΓଟ͘ͷ఺Λղ
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$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ઓུʹґଘ͢Δ ػೳͷαΠζɺ਺ɺϚωλΠζϙΠϯτ͸͢΂ͯઓུʹґଘ͢ΔͨΊҰ֓తͳ౴͑͸ͳ͍ɻઓ ུͱ࣮૷ΛҰகͤ͞Δ͜ͱ͕ελʔτΞοϓʹ͸ٻΊΒΕΔɻ "όϥϯε

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE -57͕௿͍ΞϓϦͩͱάϩʔεͤͣ͞Β͍ͳͱ ײͯ͡·͕͢ɺ௿$"$ͷάϩʔεઓུ͸Ͳ͏͍ ͏ύλʔϯ͕͋Δͱࢥ͍·͔͢ʁ 2ΞϓϦΤίϊϛΫε

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ͳ͍ɻ-57͕௿͍ސ٬΁ͷఏڙՁ஋͕௿͍ɻ $"$͕௿͍͚ͩͰ͸௿͍౸ୡ఺͔͠ݟ͑ͳ͍ɻ ૈར͸αʔϏεͷ෇ՃՁ஋ͱݴΘΕΔɻ-57͸ސ٬͔ΒಘΒΕΔૈརͷੵ࿨ɻ෇ՃՁ஋͕௿͘ ͱ΋Ϛεʹಧ͍ͯߴ͍ස౓Ͱ࢖ΘΕΔ͜ͱͰ੒ཱ͢Δࣄۀ΋͋Δ͕ɺʮᅂ޷ͷ෼ࢄԽʯͷτϨ ϯυͷதͰ͸͍ۤ͠ɻࣗ෼ͳΒͦͷέʔεͰ͸෇ՃՁ஋ͷ࠷େԽΛߟ͑·͢ɻ "ΞϓϦΤίϊϛΫε

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ࣦഊͨ͠ҙࢥܾఆͱཧ༝ 2ࣦഊ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ୭΋͕ߟ͑Δʮ৅௃తͳऔΓฦ͠ͷ͔ͭͳ͍ࣦ ഊʯ͸΄ͱΜͲͳ͍ɻқ͖ʹྲྀΕͳ͍ɻ ࣦഊ͸ʮೋ౓ͱͦͷࣦഊΛى͜͞ͳ͍ͨΊͷֶͼʯΛಘͨ࣌఺Ͱ͔ͳΓͷՁ஋Λ࣋ͭɻ ϦΞϧͳࣦഊͱ͍͏ͷ͸ɺආ͚ΒΕͨ͸ͣͰɺֶͼ͕࢒ΒͣɺԿ΋ղܾͤͣɺ࣌ؒ΍ϚΠϯυ γΣΞΛୣ͏΋ͷ೔ʑͷқ͖ʹྲྀΕΔଦੑͷੵΈॏͶ͕ࣦഊͩͱࢥ͍ͬͯ·͢ɻ "ࣦഊ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ݴޠԽͷ͔ͪΒΛഓͬͨํ๏ w ݴޠԽͷ͔ͪΒΛഓͬͨํ๏ w ݴಈΛࢀߟʹͯ͠Δউखʹϝϯλʔʹͯ͠ΔΑ͏ͳਓ͸͍·͔͢ɻ୭Ͱ͔͢ɻ 2ݴޠԽྗ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ಉ೥୅ͷݴޠԽͷԽ͚෺ϒϩάΛॻ͘͜ͱ ೥ɺϓϩμΫτϚωʔδϟʔͱͯ͠ۦ͚ग़ͩͬͨ͠ࠒʹݟͨɺಉ೥୅ͷ্ਿप࡞͞Μͷϒ ϩάʹେ͖ͳӨڹΛड͚·ͨ͠ɻѹ౗తͳϦαʔνɺந৅ԽྗɺݴޠԽྗɻࣗ෼΋͜͏ͳΓͨ ͍ͱࢥ͍ະͩʹ௥͍͔͚͍ͯ·͢ɻͦͷதͰഓͬͨݴޠԽྗ͕ɺϓϩμΫτϚωδϝϯτ΍ࢿۚ ௐୡͳͲ਺ʑͷγʔϯͰࣗ෼Λॿ͚ͯ͘ΕΔ࠷େͷπʔϧʹͳΓ·ͨ͠ɻ IUUQTKQDIJCJDPEFDPN "ݴޠԽྗ

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20191112 10xのための逆説 #pmconfjp 2019

20191112 10xのための逆説 #pmconfjp 2019

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YͷͨΊͷٯઆ ໼ຊਅৎc:BNPUUZ !ZBNPUUZ 1SPEVDU.BOBHFS$POGFSFODF

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ΞδΣϯμ ࣗݾ঺հ Yͷղऍ YͷͨΊͷʮఆઆʹର͢Δٯઆʯ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ࣗݾ঺հ ໼ຊਅৎc:BNPUUZ גࣜձࣾ9୅දऔక໾ Yʢඇ࿈ଓతͳՁ஋ʣͷࣾձ࣮૷Λ໨ࢦ͢ձࣾΛ ೥݄ʹ૑ۀɻλϕϦʔΛఏڙɻ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE Yͷݸਓతͳղऍ ಛఆͷਓ෺ͷɺಛఆͷγʔϯͷɺॏཁͳΠγϡʔΛղܾ͢Δ Πγϡʔ͕ൃੜ͍ͯ͠Δߏ଄Λʮ࢓૊ΈʯͰม͑Δ ୭΋͕৮ΕΔ৔ॴ΁ϓϩμΫτΛஔ͘

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ఆઆ ʮૉૣ͍վળʯ͕Ͱ͖ΔϦʔϯɾΞδϟΠϧͳ ૊৫͕ྑ͍

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ఆઆ UP$ٸ଎ͳ੒௕ UP#ੵΈ্͛ࣜͰͷ੒௕

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ఆઆ ਓ͕ཉ͕͠Δ΋ͷΛͭ͘Ε

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ఆઆ PdM͸XXX͸Ͱ͖ͨ΄͏͕͍͍ FYΤϯδχΞϦϯάɺσβΠϯɺσʔλ෼ੳʜFUD

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ٯઆ Ͱ͖ͨ΄͏͏͕͍͍ͷ͸౰ͨΓલ͕ͩɺඞਢͰ ͸ͳ͍ɻʮߴ͍εΩϧʯ΍ʮεΩϧΛ൑ఆͰ͖ ΔεΩϧʯΛ"/%Ͱෳ਺࣋ͭɻ 1E.ͷ੹຿͕ϓϩμΫτͷ੒ޭͰ͋Δͱ͢Δͱɺ999Ͱఆٛ͞ΕΔΑ͏ͳ࣮૷εΩϧͱ͸શ͘ ҧ͏࣍ݩͰ੒൱͕෼͔ΕΔ͔ͱࢥ͏ɻ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ఆઆ άϩʔεϋοΫ͸ख਺͕ॏཁ

ࣄલืूͨ͠2"

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE 2ఆٛ ϓϩμΫτͱ͸ʁ1.'ͱ͸ʁϕϯνϚʔΫͱ ͸ʁͲ͏ఆٛ͞Ε͍ͯ·͔͢ʁ w 1.'͸Ͳ͏ఆٛ͞Ε͍ͯ·͔͢ʁ w ϕϯνϚʔΫΛબͿج४

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ϓϩμΫτ ސ٬͕৮ΕΔ΋ͷ 1E. ઓུͱ࣮૷ΛҰகͤ͞ΔܦӦऀ 1.' σϑΥϧτͰੜ͖͍ͯΔঢ়ଶ ϕϯνϚʔΫ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ֮ޛɾϏδϣϯ ֶशྗ ฌ᜾ྗ ͲΕ΋ఆٛ͞ΕͨΘ͔Γ΍͍͢εΩϧͰ͸ͳ͍ɻ"/%Ͱ֫ಘ͍͚ͯ͠ΔΞχϚϧɻ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE 2ىۀՈͱͷҧ͍ 1E.ͱىۀՈͷҧ͍͸ͳΜͰ͔͢ʁ w 1E.͔ΒىۀՈʹͳͬͨࡍʹͿͪ౰ͨͬͨนΛڭ͍͑ͯͩ͘͞ʢ͍ͪ1E.ͱىۀՈͷؒʹͲΜͳน͕͋Δͷ͔஌Γ͍ͨͰ ͢ʣ w 1E.ͱ$&0ͷϚΠϯυͷҰ൪ͷҧ͍͸Կͩͱࢥ͍·͔͢ʁ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ݸਓతʹࠩ͸ͳ͍ɺλΠτϧ͘Β͍Ͱ͸ ҙࢤͷ௿͍ਓ͸ىۀՈʹͳΕͳ͍Α͏ʹɺ1E.ͱ͍͏৬ۀ͸ͦ΋ͦ΋Ͱ͖ͳ͍ͷͰ͸ɻ "ىۀՈͱͷҧ͍

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ૊৫ɾνʔϜΛ࡞Δ্Ͱେ੾ʹ͍ͯ͠Δߟ͑ํ ͸ԿͰ͔͢ʁ 2νʔϜϏϧσΟϯά

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ετϨʔτͰ͋Δ͜ͱ ૑ۀऀͱܦӦऀͱגओͱैۀһʹͱͬͯ w Ϣʔβʔͷ੒ޭɺͱ͍͏ΰʔϧ͕ετϨʔτͰ͋Δ͜ͱ w ΰʔϧୡ੒ʹ൐͏ΠϯηϯςΟϒ͕ετϨʔτͰ͋Δ͜ͱ w

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ઓུʹґଘ͢Δ ػೳͷαΠζɺ਺ɺϚωλΠζϙΠϯτ͸͢΂ͯઓུʹґଘ͢ΔͨΊҰ֓తͳ౴͑͸ͳ͍ɻઓ ུͱ࣮૷ΛҰகͤ͞Δ͜ͱ͕ελʔτΞοϓʹ͸ٻΊΒΕΔɻ "όϥϯε

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE -57͕௿͍ΞϓϦͩͱάϩʔεͤͣ͞Β͍ͳͱ ײͯ͡·͕͢ɺ௿$"$ͷάϩʔεઓུ͸Ͳ͏͍ ͏ύλʔϯ͕͋Δͱࢥ͍·͔͢ʁ 2ΞϓϦΤίϊϛΫε

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ࣦഊͨ͠ҙࢥܾఆͱཧ༝ 2ࣦഊ

$PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE ݴޠԽͷ͔ͪΒΛഓͬͨํ๏ w ݴޠԽͷ͔ͪΒΛഓͬͨํ๏ w ݴಈΛࢀߟʹͯ͠Δউखʹϝϯλʔʹͯ͠ΔΑ͏ͳਓ͸͍·͔͢ɻ୭Ͱ͔͢ɻ 2ݴޠԽྗ

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