James Hoare

The changing face of the solar PV market - where it's come from and where it's heading

Transcript

1. James Hoare Director Ardenham Energy
2. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk The Changing Face of Solar Where it has come form , and where it is heading James Hoare CEng MIET MEI
3. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk My background Engineer with career in Utility Electricity Generation & Distribution Founder and Director Ardenham Energy 2007 – a multi disciplinary Renewables Installer Involved with Renewables since 1991 Involved with PV since 1990s Initially off grid, and grid connected since 2000
4. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk The Very Start Humans have always made use of solar energy. When man’s earliest ancestor realised that a patch of sunlight was warmer than the shade, or that rocks heated all day by the sun remained warm long into the night, ….solar energy industry was born….
5. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk The First Solar Legislation Ancient Roman structures were routinely built with south- facing windows to gather in the warmth of the sun. As so many Roman residences and public buildings made use of passive solar heating - the “Imperial enactments of the Justinian Codex”, a part of the “Corpus Juris Civilis” issued between 529 and 534 AD by order of the Roman Emperor Justinian I, addressed individual citizens’ sun rights.
6. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk The Start of Modern Solar All early attempts to harness solar energy focused on heat. In 1767, a Swiss scientist named Horace-Benedict de Saussure constructed an insulated box with an opening covered by three layers of glass. This device is generally considered to have been the world’s first solar collector
7. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk The first known sunlight to electricity occurred in when a French scientist named Edmond Becquerel exposed two electrodes in an electrolyte to sunlight. He observed an increase in electrical current that he could not explain. Becquerel is credited with first observing what is now known as the photovoltaic effect. 1839
8. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk The first PV Panel was built by Sharp for use in satellites 1958
9. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk The First Solar Powered Calculator 1978
10. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk The First Industrial Applications PV Battery Systems for Cathodic Protection BP Solar & Shell – major players as PV key for oil industry 1980s
11. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk Remote Power for Telecommunications 1990s
12. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk Wide Area Telemetry 1990s
13. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk 1990s Trinity House use PV for Unmanned Lightships
14. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk 1994 - First Grid PV Wind & Sun designed and installed the first grid connected PV system on the UK July 27th 1994. 2.16 kWp Array comprising 36 x 60Wp Modules
15. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk 1998 – First volume PV BP Solar commence Project Sunflower 200 PV Canopies of typically 17 kWp a top petrol stations around world - including 30 in UK
16. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk 1999 – First BIPV First Large scale BIPV Installation (73 kWp) in Doxford, Nr Sunderland
17. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk 2002 – German FIT Germany Introduce Feed In Tariff
18. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk Government Support
19. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk The First DTI Grant Funded Domestic Field Trial • 28 Projects • 20 New Build • 13 Retrofit • 2 Mixed • 474 Systems totalling 724 kWp 2001-2004
20. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk The DTI Major Demonstration Programme • £20m of Grant Funding for larger scale projects 2002 - 2005
21. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk Low Carbon Buildings Programme Launched • Cross Renewable Energy Grant Programme April 2006
22. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk Low Carbon Buildings Programme Phase 2 Launched • Cross Renewable Energy Grant Programme December 2006
23. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk December 2006 Low Carbon Buildings Programme scheme modified to include a monthly budget
24. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk April 2007 Low Carbon Buildings Programme PV scheme suspended!
25. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk May 2007 Low Carbon Buildings Programme PV scheme resumed with reduced grants. • MCS Scheme Introduced
26. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk July 2009 “Feed in Tariff” Scheme Announced 41p per kWp domestic based on generation Starting April 2010
27. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk July 2009 In July 2009 the total installed PV Capacity was 23.4 MWP What happened next …..
28. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk From July 2009 to Nov 2012 - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Installed Capacity in MWp
29. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk By End 2012 Installed Capacity was 1600 MWp Domestic FIT Rate circa 15p (1/3 of original rate) 65 times as much installed PV by Christmas 2012 as was installed in total by July 2009
30. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk Price Reductions In 1999 10kWp cost £90,000 installed In 2008 10 kwp cost £50,000 installed In 2013 10 kwp costs £13,000 installed In 2023 10 kWp will cost….. (typical prices)
31. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk What is New since FITs Significant Price Reductions • Cost of PV Modules, Inverters and balance of system componentry has tumbles by more than 50%
32. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk What is New since FITs Free Solar • 3rd Party Ownership of PV located on Roof or Field • Occupant gets electricity, PV owner gets all FIT Benefits • Popular with Social Housing
33. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk What is New since FITs Large Scale Solar • Grid connected PV parks with 100% export • “Merchant” power stations
34. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk What Happens Next Installed capacity by April 2013 expected to top 2.5 GW FITS and ROCs are stabilised
35. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk The Future Key Aspects • PV Technology • The Grid • Government Policy
36. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk PV Technology Modules • Market still dominated by Poly & Mono Silicon technology • Moderate efficiency improvements • Mono/Poly Prices not expected to fall much • Thin Film and other emerging technologies may finally start to impact on market • AC Module with on board inverters will start to take market share
37. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk PV Technology Inverters • A trend towards module inverters over string • Moderate price reductions • Moderate efficiency improvements • More data intelligence
38. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk The Grid Short Term • The National Grid Company has suggested an upper limit of 10 GWp of grid connected PV • There will be more and more constraints placed upon new connections by DNO on use of grid • DNOs asking customers to turn off PV will become a growing issue.
39. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk The Grid Long Term • Smart Grid Technology will manage and maximise export potential • Localised demand side management / energy storage will balance demand profile, and will empower the ability to turn off merchant power stations, rather than leave as spinning reserve • “Smart” appliances will match energy consumption to energy availability • Localised network islanding will become normalised
40. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk Government Policy • DECC are Committed to 20 GWp installed by 2020 (NB Not necessarily HM Treasury) • DECC are aware of need for SMART grids, and Energy Storage • FITs and ROCS are hopefully a part of route to Grid Parity • DECC publishing a PV Strategy paper in April • Potential EU VAT risk and Anti Dumping of Chinese modules
41. Cane End Lane | Bierton | Aylesbury | HP22 5BH www.ardenhamenergy.co.uk Any Questions?