How to build an SEO Forecast in the age of AI Overviews

In this presentation, I cover building a simple but effective SEO forecast in the AI Overviews (AIO) age. We'll examine the impact of AIO on SERPs, how to apply a possible AIO margin to our CTRs that will help us forecast more accurately, and walk through a practical example in Google Sheets with a downloadable template.

Transcript

1. How to build an SEO Forecast in the age of AI Overviews Isaac Diaz Carpio May 26, 2025 @SearchLDN
2. 8 years working with SEO Content. From creating content for Spain and LatAm to work with over 20 markets and languages. Currently, leading the SEO Content team at Holafly.
3. Holafly is peace of mind for your travels. You get internet data wherever you are with eSIM technology
4. Welcome (??) AI Mode
5. So far… how’s AIO affecting the SERP and our traffic? • Affects mostly Informational queries (88.1%) • Google recommends our content to be useful and direct • 7.42% of queries contain both AIO and Featured Snippets • Organic results getting pushed by AIO, features and paid • It has incremented the percentage of zero clicks in SERPs Source 1 & Source 2
6. Source
7. We’ll use this zero-click percentage to estimate our traffic
8. Is it useful to forecast? AI Overviews + AI Mode
9. It still is! We need to be alert for changes in our pages and user interacting in the SERP • LLMs are also a source of traffic • Forecasting helps us choose better our initiatives • Provides to your business a growth expectation
10. Forecasting new content production • Used my content plan template • 2 tabs: Content Plan & Data tab • Every row contains the keywords for 1 page • We’ll use monthly Search Volume (SV) to forecast traffic • We’ll use historical data from our subdirectories or specific categories to forecast traffic, new customers and revenue
11. Content Plan Template (I)
12. Content Plan Template (II)
13. Content Plan Template (III)
14. Let’s deep dive into the forecast!
15. The forecast imagines 2 scenarios • Scenario A (Historic) ◦ It’s based in the historical average CTR for your category or subfolder • Scenario B (Ideal) ◦ Based on an average CTR you’d like to achieve You can also imagine an ideal average position and get the average CTR that will usually get. Example from Backlinko.
16. Estimating the monthly traffic • We multiply the Search Volume by the average CTR percentage of each scenario • For those queries with AIO results in the SERP we’ll apply the zero-clicks rate (43%). We'll multiply our result by 0.57. • Formula: SV * CTR * AIO Margin
18. Estimating the monthly customers • Next step is to calculate the amount of monthly conversions from traffic • Here we’ll need to use the Conversion Rate • Formula: E. Traffic * CVR
20. Estimating the monthly revenue • We’ll need the Average Revenue per Customer to estimate the revenue (Revenue/ Customers) • We’ll multiply our Estimated New Customers with the Average Revenue per Customer • Formula: ENC * AVG R/PC
22. Estimating the Scenario 2 • Here we are choosing the CTR we’d like to achieve • The formula, instead of pulling the CTR from the tab Data, it’s manually added • The value is given in decimals, meaning 7% is 0.07
23. Q&A time! Isaac Díaz Carpio @isaacld90 /in/isaac-diaz-carpio/ Search Barcelona @SearchLDN Follow us!
24. THANK YOU