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プロテニスにおいて疲れが勝敗に与える影響を定量化してみる
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MIZUTANI RYOTA
November 02, 2019
2
1.2k
プロテニスにおいて疲れが勝敗に与える影響を定量化してみる
Sports Analyst Meetup #5(
https://spoana.connpass.com/event/148275/)で発表したLT資料です
。
MIZUTANI RYOTA
November 02, 2019
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Transcript
ϓϩςχεʹ͓͍ͯ ർΕ͕উഊʹ༩͑ΔӨڹΛ ఆྔԽͯ͠ΈΔ 4QPSUT"OBMZTU.FFUVQ ਫ୩྄ଠ !SNJ[VUB
ࣗݾհ • ࢯ໊ɿਫ୩྄ଠ(@rmizuta3) • ͓ࣄɿϚʔέςΟϯάܥاۀͰσʔλ׆༻Λߟ͑Δਓ • झຯɿσʔλੳɺςχε • εϙʔπྺɿ •
ςχεྺ15 • େֶ࣌ମҭձॴଐ • ;͡ΈࢢࢢຽେձγϯάϧεBڃ̏Ґ
ʮۋ৫ർΕ͍ͯͨʯ • ݄̒ͷશถΦʔϓϯ४ʑܾউͰ6-1, 6-1, 6-3Ͱۋ৫Λഁͬ ͨ࣌ͷφμϧͷίϝϯτ • ४ʑܾউ·Ͱͷ4ࢼ߹ͷ߹ܭࢼ߹࣌ؒφμϧͷ9࣌ؒ ʹର͠ɺۋ৫13࣌ؒΛ͍͑ͯͨɻ ग़యɿIUUQTOFXTUFOOJTOFUOFXTUPEBZIUNM
ςχεͷࢼ߹ͷಛ • ࢼ߹͕࣌ؒৼΕ෯͕େ͖͍ • 4େେձͰ̑ηοτϚον̏ηοτઌऔ • 1࣌ؒڧͰऴΘΔ͜ͱ͋Ε5࣌ؒҎ্͔͔Δ߹͋Δ ͷ̐େେձͷࢼ߹࣌ؒ
ςχεͷࢼ߹ͷಛ • େձͷࢼ߹ִ͕ؒ͘ɺଟ͍ɻ • େձ։࠵ظؒ̎िؒɻͦͷதͰ࠷େ̓ࢼ߹Λઓ͍ ൈ͘ඞཁ͕͋Δ ճઓ
ճઓ ճઓ ճઓ ճઓ ճઓ ճઓ ճઓ શͷఔ ճઓ ४ʑܾউ ४ʑܾউ ४ܾউ % ४ܾউ 4 ܾউ % ܾউ 4
ർΕͷӨڹ͋Γͦ͏ɻ ͕࣮ͩࡍͲͷ͘Β͍ͷӨڹ͕ ͋ΔͷͩΖ͏͔ʁ
ੳํ • ϩδεςΟοΫճؼΛ༻͍ͯർΕ͕উʹ༩͑ΔӨڹΛݕূ • ճؼࣜ y = 1 1 +
exp( − (a1 − a2 )x1 + (b1 − b2 )x2 ) ɹɿউഊ PS ɹɿબखͷڧ͞ɿબखͷڧ͞ ɹɿબखͷർ࿑ɹɹɿબख̎ͷർ࿑ a1 a2 b2 b1 y
બखͷڧ͞ • ΠϩϨʔςΟϯάͷσʔλΛ༻ • https://ultimatetennisstatistics.com/ ͷΠϩϨʔςΟϯά
બखͷർ࿑ • ֤ࢼ߹ͷࢼ߹࣌ؒͷσʔλΛར༻ • https://github.com/JeffSackmann/tennis_atp • େձظؒதɺࢼ߹ͷർΕੵ͢Δ͕ɺճ෮ͷྔߟྀ ͍ͨ͠
બखͷർ࿑ͷߟ͑ํ ࢼ߹࣌ؒ ർ࿑ ճઓ ճઓ
ճઓ ർ࿑લࢼ߹ͷࢼ߹࣌ؒ ɹɹɹɹલࢼ߹ͷർ࿑ ർ࿑ଘ ଘ͕ͷ߹
ർ࿑ଘͷࢉग़ • ർ࿑ଘΛมԽͤ͞ͳ͕ΒϩδεςΟοΫճؼΛ࣮ࢪ • ༧ଌͱ࣮ࡍͷͷRMSE͕࠷খʹͳΔͷΛબ ർ࿑ଘ͕̔ͷ࣌ ࠷ͯ·Γ͕ྑ͍
ϩδεςΟοΫճؼͷ࣮ߦ • 2018ͷ4େେձͷ482ࢼ߹ͷσʔλΛ༻ y = 1 1 + exp( −
(a1 − a2 )x1 + (b1 − b2 )x2 ) ɹɿউഊ PS ɹɿબखͷڧ͞ɿબखͷڧ͞ ɹɿબखͷർ࿑ɹɹɿબख̎ͷർ࿑ a1 a2 b2 b1 y
݁Ռ ർ࿑ʹ͕ࠩ͋Δͱɺ ͕ࠩͳ͍߹ͱൺֱͯ͠উ͕ഒʹ ճؼ Φοζൺ
݁Ռͷαϯϓϧ ϕʔεͷۋ৫WTφμϧͷউͱർ࿑ͷࠩͷؔ
·ͱΊ • ςχεʹ͓͍ͯർΕ͕উʹ༩͑ΔӨڹΛϩδεςΟΫճ ؼΛ༻͍ͯఆྔԽͨ͠ • ർ࿑ͷ͕ࠩ100͋Δ߹ɺ͕ࠩͳ͍߹ͱൺֱͯ͠উ ͕60%ʹݮগ͢Δ͜ͱ͕Θ͔ͬͨ • ଥੑͷ֬ೝͷͨΊผͷΞϓϩʔνͰͬͯΈ͍ͨ