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大規模購買ログの時系列解析に基づくLTV予測

 大規模購買ログの時系列解析に基づくLTV予測

Dentsu Digital Tech Blog

June 22, 2020
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  1. എܠ • $VTUPNFS-JGFUJNF7BMVF $-7 -57 • ސ٬ੜ֔Ձ஋ • ϚʔέςΟϯάࢦඪ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD

    ͋Δސ٬͕΋ͨΒ͢ ૯རӹ +4"*  ฏۉߪೖֹۚ ߪങස౓ ސ٬ੜଘظؒ
  2. എܠ • -57ʢސ٬ੜ֔Ձ஋ʣ͕ߴ͍ • ސ٬ຬ଍౓͕ߴ͍ • ܧଓతʹαʔϏε͕ར༻͞Ε͍ͯΔ • ৽نސ٬֫ಘʹ͸ίετ͕͔͔Δ •

    -57༧ଌ • ޮՌతͳ༧ࢉ഑෼ʢ޿ࠂɺαʔϏεʣ • ച্ߴͷݟੵ΋Γʢඃܖ໿ܕͷαʔϏεͰ͸ݟੵ΋Γ͕೉͍͠ʣ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD 
  3. ൃද಺༰ • ໨త • ໰୊ఆٛ • ఏҊख๏ • ఏҊΞϧΰϦζϜ •

    ධՁ࣮ݧ • ·ͱΊ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"* 
  4. ໰୊ఆٛ • ߪങཤྺσʔλ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD  5JNFTUBNQ $VTUPNFS*% 1SPEVDU*% 2VBOUJUZ

    5PUBM1SJDF  " 'PPE  =   # #PPL  =   " 4IPFT  =   $ &MFDUSPOJDT  =  ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ
  5. ൃද಺༰ • ໨త • ໰୊ఆٛ • ఏҊख๏ • ఏҊΞϧΰϦζϜ •

    ධՁ࣮ݧ • ·ͱΊ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"* 
  6. ΞΠσΞɿςϯιϧղੳ • ߪങཤྺ ˠ֊ςϯιϧ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"*  5JNFTUBNQ $VTUPNFS*% 1SPEVDU*%

    2VBOUJUZ 5PUBM1SJDF  " 'PPE  =   # #PPL  =   " 4IPFT  =   $ &MFDUSPOJDT  =  ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ ʜ $VTUPN FS 1SPEVDU 5JNF 5FOTPS ∈ ℤ$ ×× FH DVTUPNFS"CPVHIU4IPFTPO+VOF
  7. ΞΠσΞɿςϯιϧղੳ • ֊ςϯιϧ ˠ τϐοΫ෼ղ +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD  $ VTUPN

    FS 1SPEVDU 5JNF 5FOTPS ∈ ℤ$ ×× ≈ + + ⋯ 5PQJD" 5PQJD# 5PQJD$
  8. ΞΠσΞ̎ɿ3'.Ϟσϧ • 3'.ࢦඪɿ • 3FDFODZɿ௚ۙͷߪങ͔Βͷܦա೔਺ • 'SFRVFODZɿߪങස౓ • .POFUBSZɿฏۉߪങֹۚ +4"*

    4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD  #(/#%Ϟσϧ ((Ϟσϧ #(/#%Ϟσϧ ߪೖճ਺ɿϙΞιϯ෼෍ ࣄલ෼෍ɿΨϯϚ෼෍ , ཭୤֬཰ɿزԿ෼෍ ࣄલ෼෍ɿϕʔλ෼෍ , ℎ ߪങֹۚɿΨϯϚ෼෍ , ࣄલ෼෍ɿΨϯϚ෼෍ , ((Ϟσϧ , , , ℎ, , ,
  9. ΞΠσΞ̎ɿ3'.Ϟσϧ • ύϥϝʔλਪఆ = exp (( + ⋯ + ##

    +4"* 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD  $VTUPNFST 5PQJDT ∈ , , , ℎ, , , 1BSBNFUFST 5PQJDT L: 負の対数尤度
  10. ൃද಺༰ • ໨త • ໰୊ఆٛ • ఏҊख๏ • ධՁ࣮ݧ •

    ·ͱΊ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"* 
  11. ධՁ࣮ݧ • σʔληοτ • ௨ൢαΠτΦϜχ̓ͷߪങཤྺ • ݸਓΞΧ΢ϯτʢ๏ਓʣ • ౦ژ౎ •

    ߪങཤྺɿ݅ • ސ٬ɿਓ • ධՁํ๏ • d • Ϟσϧֶश༻αϯϓϧ • d • ςετ-57ࢉग़༻αϯϓϧ 4BLVSBJ-BC%FOUTV%JHJUBM*OD +4"*  https://7net.omni7.jp/top