Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons: A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal

The slides I used for presenting our paper at GALA (Games and Learning Alliance) Conference 2025 that took place in Utrecht, The Netherlands, on November 21, 2025.

Transcript

1. generated by Stable Image Core Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons: A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal Kenji Saito1, Shinji Hatta2, Yasuhiro Yoshimura3, Toshiya Hanada3 1Waseda University 2MUSCAT Space Engineering Co., Ltd. 3Kyushu University Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons : A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal — GALA Conf 2025 — 2025-11-21 – p.1/13
2. The Orbital Debris Crisis Orbital debris threatens long-term sustainability of space operations Even under optimistic scenarios (no new launches, full PMD compliance), debris continues to increase due to collisions Risk of Kessler Syndrome: cascading collision events Challenge: Active Debris Removal (ADR) is necessary but lacks economic incentives Classic public goods problem: Benefits are shared, costs fall on individual actors Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons : A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal — GALA Conf 2025 — 2025-11-21 – p.2/13
3. Proposed Solution: ADR Currency token value value of ADR (debt) token issued proof of disposal witnessed B ’s contribution A B C D C ’s contribution transition of token holders Digital tokens issued as reward for verified debris removal Token value proportional to collision risk reduced Demurrage: tokens depreciate over time (Gesell-style) Tokens themselves pay off the debt Holders seek to use them quickly, resulting in a rapid circulation rate Key concept: Frames orbital debris as intergenerational debt Present-day actions reduce future risks Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons : A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal — GALA Conf 2025 — 2025-11-21 – p.3/13
4. Research Question & Approach “How might a token-based incentive for ADR shape strategic behavior, coordination, and ethical reasoning?” Approach: Serious Game as Dual-Purpose Tool 1. Institutional crash-testing: Test policy mechanisms under realistic conditions 2. Public reasoning platform: Enable critical reflection on governance challenges Study design: Multiplayer serious game simulating ADR economy Focus on emergent dynamics; exploratory study Participants learn to govern through gameplay Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons : A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal — GALA Conf 2025 — 2025-11-21 – p.4/13
5. Game Design: Overview Implementation: Available at https://github.com/ks91/adr-game Text-based multiplayer game (tabletop RPG style) AI game master (GPT-4o at the time) + Discord chatbot Players describe actions; GM responds with outcomes Game structure: Turn-based: 1 turn = 1 year Currencies: USD and ADR tokens Assets: Communication satellites, Removal satellites Players compete and cooperate as debris removal service providers Study: 4 human players (authors) × 10 in-game years Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons : A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal — GALA Conf 2025 — 2025-11-21 – p.5/13
6. Game Mechanics: Six Phases Removal & Revenue Phase Maintenance / Depreciation / Taxation Phase Event Phase Operation Phase Trading Phase State Display 1 turn (1 year) Encourage players to buy or sell satellites, etc. Services by regular communication satellites Allocation of removal targets and calculation of AD compensation Calculation of depreciation of ADR currency, corporate tax, etc. Random events (satellite destruction, fraud, no event, etc.) Display of assets, currency, satellites held, list of debris, etc. 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons : A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal — GALA Conf 2025 — 2025-11-21 – p.6/13
7. Finding 1: Competition Avoidance Observed behavior: Players avoided targeting high-ranking debris Risk of overlap with other players ⇒ wasted effort Implicit coordination without formal rules At times, perverse incentive: deliberately avoiding first place Player quote: “Since Player D succeeded and I failed, this essentially becomes an incentive not to aim for first place on purpose.” Implication: Need for explicit coordination mechanisms (e.g., target declaration protocols) Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons : A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal — GALA Conf 2025 — 2025-11-21 – p.7/13
8. Finding 2: Immediate Consumption Observed behavior: Demurrage (2% per turn depreciation) induced time-sensitive spending Player who spent ADR tokens most effectively accumulated greatest assets Loss-averse behavior under decaying currency value Player quote: “I’ll buy as many satellites as I can using ADR tokens [to avoid spending USD].” Implication: Institutional incentive design can shape strategic behavior under temporal pressure Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons : A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal — GALA Conf 2025 — 2025-11-21 – p.8/13
9. Finding 3: Ethical Contradictions Self-debris removal dilemma: When fragmentation event destroyed player’s satellite ⇒ debris Player chose to remove their own debris But: ethical behavior faces misaligned incentives Without reward, no incentive to clean up own mess? Player quote: “Getting more AD from removing your own debris... well, if your AD doesn’t increase, you won’t even try to remove it.” Tension: Self-removal with reward ⇒ profit opportunity Risk: Intentional debris generation for profit Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons : A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal — GALA Conf 2025 — 2025-11-21 – p.9/13
10. Post-Game Reflection Research & Educational Value: Game functioned as platform for situated learning and embodied understanding “Understanding those small details is the research value... These conversations are important” Ethical Reconstruction: Participants questioned growth-oriented assumptions Raised concerns about environmental impacts (aluminum, ozone) Proposed alternatives: resource recovery, circular economy Game shifted from: Mechanism for debris reduction ⇒ Platform for ethical reexamination Exposed institutional blind spots toward less visible externalities Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons : A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal — GALA Conf 2025 — 2025-11-21 – p.10/13
11. Key Implications For ADR governance: 1. Monetary incentives alone insufficient 2. Need procedural elements: Target declaration protocols Transparency mechanisms Normative alignment 3. Demurrage effectively induces time-sensitive behavior 4. Ethical dilemmas require careful reward structure design For serious games research: Games can function as both crash-tests and platforms for public reasoning Enable enactment and interrogation of policy mechanisms Bridge gap between theoretical design and social complexity Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons : A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal — GALA Conf 2025 — 2025-11-21 – p.11/13
12. Conclusion Main contributions: 1. Demonstrated serious game as tool for prototyping ADR currency 2. Revealed emergent behaviors: competition avoidance, implicit coordination, ethical tensions 3. Showed games can function as both institutional crash-tests and platforms for ethical reflection 4. Exposed gap between theoretical incentive design and behavioral reality Limitations: Exploratory study (4 players, single playthrough) Future work: multiple sessions with diverse participants Broader vision: Serious games as vehicles for learning to govern complex planetary-scale challenges Not only simulating incentive structures, but also questioning the values embedded within them Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons : A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal — GALA Conf 2025 — 2025-11-21 – p.12/13
13. Summary Key Takeaways: 1. Serious games as policy prototyping tools: Test mechanisms before implementation 2. Emergent behaviors matter: Competition avoidance, coordination failures, ethical tensions 3. Monetary incentives insufficient: Need procedural mechanisms and normative alignment 4. Games enable public reasoning: Not just simulation, but critical reflection on values Try the game: Study approach: 4 players × 10 in-game years, ADR currency with demurrage, AI game master Broader vision: Learning to govern complex planetary-scale challenges through gameplay Try the game: https://chatgpt.com/g/g-uKMdRDCBV-adrkemu-adr-game Learning to Govern the Orbital Commons : A Serious Game on Incentivizing Debris Removal — GALA Conf 2025 — 2025-11-21 – p.13/13