NS Data Expo 2024

Transcript

4. 4 Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability Marthe Veldhuis Data Scientist / Machine Learning Engineer Nederlandse Spoorwegen
5. 1. Planning your route 2. Paddling to the destination 3. Staying in tandem Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 5
6. Planning your route Part 1
7. Determine succes at the start 7 Give certainty Provide a warning
8. Talk to people ▪ End-users Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 8
9. Talk to people ▪ End-users ▪ Indirect users Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 9
10. Talk to people ▪ End-users ▪ Indirect users ▪ Colleagues Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 10
11. Talk to people ▪ End-users ▪ Indirect users ▪ Colleagues ▪ User eXperience Designers Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 11
12. Involve UXD from the start 12 Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability
13. Paddling to the destination Part 2
14. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 14 Start simple
15. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 15 “Last week” model: 𝑅2 = 0,50 MAE = 28 Use the right metrics
16. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 16 Use the right metrics XGBoost model: 𝑅2 = 0,54 MAE = 28
17. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 17 Use the right metrics
18. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 18 Use the right metrics “Last week” model: low range recall = 63%
19. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 19 Use the right metrics XGBoost model: low range recall = 28%
20. Staying in tandem Part 3
21. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 21 Translate your metrics to intuitive measures Forecasted situation Actual situation Warned Disappointed
22. Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 22 Translate your metrics to intuitive measures
23. 1. Planning your route • Determine succes • Talk to people • Involve UXD 2. Paddling to the destination • Start simple • Use the right metrics 3. Staying in tandem • Translate your metrics Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 23