Zuckerberg: American Ag at the Crossroads

Kenneth Zuckerberg
CHS, Inc.
Tue., February 18, 2025
11 am Session: "American Agriculture at the Crossroads"

Transcript

1. The Winds of Change 1 Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg Director of Global Research February 2025 © 2025 CHS Inc. Public American agriculture at the crossroads
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3. ©2025 CHS Inc. Public Macro perspectives
4. Expected U.S. economic growth of ~2.8% for 2024 exceeded initial expectations of a ‘soft landing’ ©2025 CHS Inc. Public -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Annual % Change in U.S. GDP Long-term average Average is 2.6% Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 4
5. And the U.S. should continue outperforming other advanced economies over the next 12 months ©2025 CHS Inc. Public 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% United States Germany Japan United Kingdom Canada Australia GDP Growth for Advanced Economies 2023 2024E 2025E Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) 5
6. ©2025 CHS Inc. Public Key Question: Will economic growth continue in 2026? Photo: ChatGPT.com 6
7. The Fed has helped contain inflation, but history suggests that a second spike could occur (January’s print was hot) Inflation Rate (%) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 ? ©2025 CHS Inc. Public 7
8. Interestingly, rates are more normal than they appear Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Fed Funds Effective Rate (%) -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00 Normal Not Normal ©2025 CHS Inc. Public 8
9. Long-term rates have risen sharply since the Federal Reserve cut rates last September ©2025 CHS Inc. Public 9
10. The increase in 10-year yields suggest that bond investors require a higher risk premium to hold government debt ©2025 CHS Inc. Public 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Percentage (%) U.S. Federal Debt as %GDP 100% Debt/GDP U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public % GDP Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 10
11. And U.S. debt rates have risen trillion increase in U.S. Gov't debt since January 2020 trillion in debt YE 2024 U.S. growth rate 2.8% $13 Do we focus on this, ever?? Growth starting to slow & higher inflation persists? Debt/GDP post WWII peak $36 Source: Treasury Department ©2025 CHS Inc. Public 11 Debt/GDP post WWII peak
12. There are numerous risks on the horizon ©2025 CHS Inc. Public Geopolitical risk Arctic warming / weather volatility Catastrophe losses Rising insurance costs Protectionism Supply chain disruptions Poverty & food insecurity Immigration & labor 12
13. However, the biggest near-term risk to the U.S. economy is a drop in consumer spending ©2025 CHS Inc. Public Current U.S. consumer savings rate = 4.1% Long-term average and median = 8.4% 13
14. ©2025 CHS Inc. Public Agriculture observations
15. Pressure on U.S. farm margins Brazil’s rise as a major grain exporter The need to find new growth markets ©2025 CHS Inc. Public Three issues dominate the ag conversation 15
16. Spotlight issue: Pressure on U.S. farm income and margins ©2025 CHS Inc. Public 16
17. The crop cycle peaked in 2022 ©2025 CHS Inc. Public In contrast to a growing general economy, farming has been in a downturn since 2022 $193 $150 $141 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024f Price / bushel USD Billions Net Farm Income (inflation adj.) Median Net Farm Income (2004-24) Average Corn Price Received (right axis) Profit Peaks Source: USDA Farm Income and Wealth Statistics, December 3, 2024 and Farmdoc database 17
18. Debt ratios are not alarming, but above 2015 levels ©2025 CHS Inc. Public 12.4% 13.1% 14.1% 15.1% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0% Source: USDA U.S. Farm Sector Debt Ratios Debt/assets Debt/equity 18
19. Inputs have traded in a wider range than corn prices ©2025 CHS Inc. Public Glyphosate Corn Urea 3.3x $910 $280 $8.18 $3.62 $12.60 $3.45 Sources: CHS Global Research and Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2.3x 3.7x 19
20. The good news is that fertilizer is more affordable ©2025 CHS Inc. Public $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 $1,600 $1,700 $1,800 Iowa Average Fertilizer Costs US Dollars Per Ton Anhydrous Ammonia UREA Liquid Nitrogen (32% spread) MAP (11%N, 52%P) POTASH (Red) Source: USDA 20
21. U.S. crop cycle: Then and now ©2025 CHS Inc. Public 2013 2018 2022 2020: Debt/equity ratio rises to 16.4% (from 14.1% in 2015) Net farm income $163.4 billion Farm operating capital under pressure Net farm income peaks $193.1 billion Today 2014-2018 Farmer reactions: • No “new” farm equipment • Lower fertilizer usage • Switch to cheaper seed/chemistries • Rent negotiations • Input optimization vs. yield maximization Source: Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg, 2015, 2025 21
22. ©2025 CHS Inc. Public Strategic responses
23. What should you do when you have all lemons? ©2025 CHS Inc. Public 23
24. You make ‘lemonade’ = find new sources of growth What exactly are those growth opportunities? ©2025 CHS Inc. Public 24
25. Biofuels in general and ethanol in particular offer strong long- term growth potential for the U.S. grain sector 25 © 2023 CHS Inc. Public Ethanol blends Renewable feedstocks blended with gasoline Biodiesel Renewable feedstocks blended with petroleum-based diesel Sustainable Aviation Fuel Renewable feedstocks blended with jet fuel Renewable Diesel Renewable feedstock- based fuel Most opportunity for corn-based Most opportunity for soybean-based
26. Ethanol exports are especially interesting ©2025 CHS Inc. Public Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Canada Japan European Union United Kingdom India Philippines Korea Gallons, Millions Baseline Expectations of Total Ethanol Imports for Key U.S. Trading Partners 2024 2027E 2030E 26 Growth opportunities may exist in other developing markets, especially those experiencing manufacturing-led growth
27. Fireside chat 27 ©2025 CHS Inc. Public
28. ©2025 CHS Inc. Public 28