AI in 2014: Progress and Problems

From Strata + Hadoop World NYC 2014

Transcript

1. AI in 2014 Beau Cronin @beaucronin
2. Covering AI is hard https://flic.kr/p/oC9NCe Hype Technical Evaluation Complexity Definitions Crackpots
3. AI is a moving target • What is it [not]? • Who’s doing it, where, and what progress is being made? • Where is it going in the next few years?
4. What is AI [not]?
5. ENVIRONMENT METHODS PROJECTS FICTION 2001 Dartmouth Summer ARPA Started LISP Vision Project ELIZA Shakey SHRDLU Lighthill Report Winter #1 Winter #2 Expert Systems Deep NNs Connectionism PDP Turing Test “Golden Years” Symbolic “GOFAI” General Problem Solver A.I. The Matrix Blade Runner The Terminator I, Robot Alien Star Trek: TNG Deep Blue Watson Siri Colossus: Forbin Proj Her Wargames Jetsons DARPA Grand Challenges Google Car XCON 5th-Gen Computer Strategic Computing Initiative ALPAC Report Stats & Machine Learning MIT AI Lab Prolog BKG Connection Machine Society of Mind Cog DART Kismet Roomba Mars Rovers 1950 ‘60 ‘70 ‘80 ‘90 2000 ‘10 ‘20 Cloud Computing Excession Diamond Age Daemon
6. ELIZA Perceptron SHRDLU Shakey
7. Interlocutor Superoptimizer Android AI Archetypes & Definitions Big Data Learner
8. “AI has failed.”* “AI is all around us. It’s in Excel, FFS”** * Paraphrased ** Heavily paraphrased
10. What progress is being made? Context Where? How? How much?
11. When we find a new [AI] paradigm or a new set of techniques, it feels like we are driving a car on a highway and nothing can stop us until we reach the destination. But the reality is that we are really driving in a thick fog and we don't realize that our highway is really a parking lot with a brick wall at the far end. (…perceptrons, rule-based systems, neural nets, graphical models, SVMs) Yann LeCun, Facebook AI Research https://flic.kr/p/364e61
12. Summer Vision Project: Off by 100x …Moravec’s Paradox
13. AI Progress Is Relocating Increasingly: • Applied • Commercial • Integrated • Scaled • Data-Centric • Small/Large Universities Research Labs Independent Cos. Tech Giants Research Labs? Startups (small)
14. Impact requires methods and integration Integration New Methods DL Rsch DL image search Watson Siri IMPACT Prob. Prog Sibyl • New methods is a moving target • Integration includes scale, robustness, testing, deployment, …
15. “Self-driving cars are not an anomaly; they’re part of a broad, fascinating pattern. Progress on some of the oldest and toughest challenges associated with computers, robots, and other digital gear was gradual for a long time. Then in the past few years it became sudden… “Our digital machines have escaped their narrow confines and started to demonstrate broad abilities in pattern recognition, complex communication, and other domains that used to be exclusively human" The Bulls
16. http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tasks.png https://github.com/karpathy/convnetjs
17. The enterprise of achieving [human-level intelligence] artificially — the field of ‘artificial general intelligence’ or AGI — has made no progress whatever during the entire six decades of its existence http://www.kurzweilai.net/why-artificial-general-intelligence-has-failed-and-how-to-fix-it The Bears
18. or
19. Where is it going? • Richer models • Is winter coming? • Privacy, intrusiveness, control • The AIs (almost) no one expects
20. Richer Models • The path from narrow to general • Possible approaches: • DL++ • Probabilistic programs • Deeper connections with the brain sciences "Planetarium in Putnam Gallery 2, 2009-11-24" by Sage Ross - Own work. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0-2.5-2.0-1.0
22. The Unreasonable Effectiveness of The Unreasonable Effective of Data More/Better Data Richer Models
23. • AI is here to stay this time - there’s too much money to be made • But localized retrenchments are still possible, maybe even inevitable NOT
24. Privacy, intrusiveness, control • Social, cultural, political issues just as important as technical ones • This interplay is a huge source of uncertainty and complexity in forecasting
25. ?
26. Climate system Traffic Logistics Agriculture Factories Supply Chain Climate Power Plants
27. Thank you Beau Cronin @beaucronin