20201121_oldpaperreading_computing_machinery_and_intelligence

presentation slide at https://connpass.com/event/187988/.

Transcript

1. 2020/11/21 ੲͷ࿦จಡΈձ @yohei_kikuta PSYCHOLOGY AND PHILOSOPHY I.—COMPUTING MACHINERY AND INTELLIGENCE BY A. M. TURING The Imitation Game. PROPOSE to consider the question, µCan machines think?¶ This shou gin with definitions of the meaning of the terms µmachine¶ a hink¶. The definitions might be framed so as to reflect so far ssible the normal use of the words, but this attitude is dangerous. e meaning of the words µmachine¶ and µthink¶ are to be found
2. /24 Ubie גࣜձࣾͷ٠ాངฏͰ͢ • Accounts & Blog • https://github.com/yoheikikuta • https://twitter.com/yohei_kikuta • https://yoheikikuta.github.io/ • WE ARE HIRING!!! • https://herp.careers/v1/ubie 2
3. /24 ঺հ࿦จ COMPUTING MACHINERY AND INTELLIGENCE (1950) • https://academic.oup.com/mind/article/LIX/236/433/986238 • ਓ޻஌ೳݚڀͷ๖ժͱͳͬͨه೦ൾత࿦จ • ػց͸ߟ͑Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δ͔ʁͱ͍͏໰ΛఏҊ • ޙʹνϡʔϦϯάςετͱݺ͹ΕΔ໛฿ήʔϜΛఏҊ • ΊͪΌͪ͘Ό໘ന͍ΤοηΠΈ͍ͨͳײ͡ • ༷ʑͳ༧ݴత಺༰΋ؚΜͰ͍ͯࠓಡΈฦͯ͠΋໘ന͍ 3
4. /24 ͜ͷ࿦จ͕ग़Δ·Ͱͷྺ࢙ 1928 Hilbert ʮܾఆ໰୊͕਺ཧ࿦ཧֶͷத৺త໰୊ʯ 1931 Gödel ͷෆ׬શੑఆཧ 1936 ܭࢉՄೳ਺ͷ࿦จͷൃදʢఀࢭੑ໰୊ͷূ໌ʣ 1939 ҉߸ղಡػ bombe ͷ࢓༷ࡦఆ 1946 ੈքॳͷϓϩάϥϜ಺ଂࣜίϯϐϡʔλͷઃܭ࿦จൃද 1947 ਓ޻஌ೳͷ֓೦ͷఏএ 1950 ຊ࿦จͷൃද 4
5. /24 ͜ͷ࿦จͷষཱͯ 1. The Imitation Game 2. Critique of the New Problem 3. The Machines concerned in the Game 4. Digital Computers 5. Universality of Digital Computers 6. Contrary Views on the Main Question 7. Learning Machines 5
6. /24 The Imitation Game ݪܕ Imitation game ͷఏҊ 6 BY A. M. TURING 1. The Imitation Game. I PROPOSE to consider the question, µCan machines think?¶ Thi begin with definitions of the meaning of the terms µmachi µthink¶. The definitions might be framed so as to reflect s possible the normal use of the words, but this attitude is dang the meaning of the words µmachine¶ and µthink¶ are to be f examining how they are commonly used it is difficult to esc conclusion that the meaning and the answer to the questio machines think?¶ is to be sought in a statistical survey such as poll. But this is absurd. Instead of attempting such a definitio replace the question by another, which is closely related to i expressed in relatively unambiguous words. The new form of the problem can be described in terms of which we call the µimitation game¶. It is played with three peopl (A), a woman (B), and an interrogator (C) who may be of either C: ࣭໰ऀ A: உੑ
 ࣗ෼͕ঁੑͩͱ ὃͦ͏ͱ͢Δ B: ঁੑ
 ࣭໰ऀΛॿ͚Δ ௨৴ ͲͪΒ͕உੑ/ঁੑ
 ͔Λ౰ͯΔ
7. /24 The Imitation Game ݪܕ Imitation game ͷఏҊʢޙͷ Turing testʣ 7 BY A. M. TURING 1. The Imitation Game. I PROPOSE to consider the question, µCan machines think?¶ Thi begin with definitions of the meaning of the terms µmachi µthink¶. The definitions might be framed so as to reflect s possible the normal use of the words, but this attitude is dang the meaning of the words µmachine¶ and µthink¶ are to be f examining how they are commonly used it is difficult to esc conclusion that the meaning and the answer to the questio machines think?¶ is to be sought in a statistical survey such as poll. But this is absurd. Instead of attempting such a definitio replace the question by another, which is closely related to i expressed in relatively unambiguous words. The new form of the problem can be described in terms of which we call the µimitation game¶. It is played with three peopl (A), a woman (B), and an interrogator (C) who may be of either C: ࣭໰ऀ A: ػց
 ࣗ෼͕ঁੑͩͱ ὃͦ͏ͱ͢Δ B: ঁੑ
 ࣭໰ऀΛॿ͚Δ ௨৴ ಉ͘͡Β͍൑அΛ
 ؒҧ͑Δ͔ʁ
8. /24 The Imitation Game ඪ४తͳ Turing test 8 BY A. M. TURING 1. The Imitation Game. I PROPOSE to consider the question, µCan machines think?¶ Thi begin with definitions of the meaning of the terms µmachi µthink¶. The definitions might be framed so as to reflect s possible the normal use of the words, but this attitude is dang the meaning of the words µmachine¶ and µthink¶ are to be f examining how they are commonly used it is difficult to esc conclusion that the meaning and the answer to the questio machines think?¶ is to be sought in a statistical survey such as poll. But this is absurd. Instead of attempting such a definitio replace the question by another, which is closely related to i expressed in relatively unambiguous words. The new form of the problem can be described in terms of which we call the µimitation game¶. It is played with three peopl (A), a woman (B), and an interrogator (C) who may be of either C: ࣭໰ऀ B: ਓؒ
 ਓؒͱͯ͠ৼΔ෣ ͏ ௨৴ ͲͪΒ͕ίϯϐϡʔ λ/ਓ͔ؒΛ౰ͯΔ A: ػց
 ਓؒΒ͘͠ৼΔ ෣͏
9. /24 The Imitation Game ݪܕ Imitation game ͷఏҊʢୈೋόʔδϣϯɿඪ४ղऍʣ 9 BY A. M. TURING 1. The Imitation Game. I PROPOSE to consider the question, µCan machines think?¶ Thi begin with definitions of the meaning of the terms µmachi µthink¶. The definitions might be framed so as to reflect s possible the normal use of the words, but this attitude is dang the meaning of the words µmachine¶ and µthink¶ are to be f examining how they are commonly used it is difficult to esc conclusion that the meaning and the answer to the questio machines think?¶ is to be sought in a statistical survey such as poll. But this is absurd. Instead of attempting such a definitio replace the question by another, which is closely related to i expressed in relatively unambiguous words. The new form of the problem can be described in terms of which we call the µimitation game¶. It is played with three peopl (A), a woman (B), and an interrogator (C) who may be of either C: ࣭໰ऀ B: ঁੑͷ;ΓΛ͢ Δஉੑ
 ࣗ෼͕ঁੑͩͱὃ ͦ͏ͱ͢Δ ௨৴ ͲͪΒ͕உੑ/ঁੑ ͔Λ౰ͯΔ A: ػց
 ࣗ෼͕ঁੑͩͱ ὃͦ͏ͱ͢Δ
10. /24 Critique of the New Problem ஌ੑΛଌΔͨΊͷςετͱͯ͠ͷ໰౴ܗࣜͷఏҊ 10 Q : I have K at my K1, and no other pieces. You have only K at K6 and R at R1. It is your move. What do you play? A : (After a pause of 15 seconds) R-R8 mate. The question and answer method seems to be suitable for introducing almost any one of the fields of human endeavour that we wish to include. We do not wish to penalise the machine for its inability to shine in beauty competitions, nor to penalise a man for losing in a race against an aeroplane. The conditions of our game make these disabilities irrelevant. The µwitnesses¶ can brag, if they consider it advisable, as much as they please about their charms, strength or heroism, but the interrogator cannot demand practical demonstrations. The game may perhaps be criticised on the ground that the odds are weighted too heavily against the machine. If the man were to try and pretend to be the machine he would clearly make a very poor showing. He would be given away at once by slowness and inaccuracy in arithmetic. May not machines carry out something which ought to be described as thinking but which is very different from what a man does? This objection
11. /24 The Machines concerned in the Game Imitation game Ͱ࢖༻͢Δػցͷఆٛ • ཁٻ͢Δ৚݅
 1. ͲΜͳٕज़Λ࢖ͬͯ΋Α͍
 2. ػցͷಈ࡞ํ๏͕ຬ଍ʹهड़͞Εͯͳͯ͘΋Α͍
 ʢଟ෼ʹ࣮ݧతख๏Λ࢖͏ͨΊɻػցֶशͷ͜ͱ͔ʂʁʣ
 3. ී௨ʹੜ·Εͨਓؒͱ͸۠ผͰ͖Δ • σδλϧܭࢉػͷΈΛߟ͑Δ
 ͏·͘͜ͳͤΔՍۭͷܭࢉػ͕ଘࡏ͠͏Δ͔ʁ͕ओ୊ 11
12. /24 Digital Computers σδλϧܭࢉػͷߏ੒ཁૉ • هԱ૷ஔʢ৘ใΛ஝͑ΔɻؚΉ໋ྩදʣ • ࣮ߦϢχοτʢܭࢉաఔʹ͓͚Δݸผૢ࡞Λ࣮ࢪʣ • ੍ޚ૷ஔʢ໋ྩ͕ਖ਼͍͠ॱংͰ࣮ߦ͞ΕΔΑ͏୲อʣ ਓؒܭࢉػͷ;Δ·͍Λਅࣅͤ͞ΔͨΊʹ͸໋ྩදΛͭ͘Ε͹ ʢϓϩάϥϜ͢Ε͹ʣΑ͍ 12
13. /24 Universality of Digital Computers ཭ࢄঢ়ଶػց͸ॳظঢ়ଶͱೖྗ৴߸Ͱهड़ σδλϧܭࢉػ͸ʢద੾ʹϓϩάϥϜ͞ΕΕ͹ʣͲΜͳ཭ࢄঢ় ଶػց΋໛฿Մೳ = ສೳੑ Imitation game ͸࣍ͷΑ͏ʹݴ͍׵͑ΒΕΔɿ
 े෼ͳهԱ༰ྔͱ࣮ߦ଎౓Λ࣋ͭద੾ʹϓϩάϥϜ͞Εͨಛఆ ͷσδλϧܭࢉػ͸ Imitation game Ͱ A ͷ໾ׂΛຬ଍ʹ͜ͳͤ Δ͔ʁ 13
14. /24 Contrary Views on the Main Question ༷ʑͳ؍఺͔Βͷ൓࿦ʹରͯ͠ҙݟΛड़΂͍ͯΔɻྫ͑͹ • ਆֶత൓࿦ɿࢥߟ͸ਓؒͷΈʹڐ͞Εͨࠢͷޚۀ
 → ਆֶతͳٞ࿦͕ਖ਼͔ͬͨ͜͠ͱ͕͋Δ͔ʁ • ਺ֶత൓࿦ɿ཭ࢄঢ়ଶػցͷೳྗʹݶք͕͋Δͱࣔͨ͠Βʁ
 → ਓ͕ؒͦͷ੍ݶΛड͚ͳ͍͚ͩͰຊ࣭తͰͳ͍ͱ͍͏ཱ৔ • ϥϒϨε෉ਓͷ൓࿦ɿػցʹ৽͍͜͠ͱ͸Ͱ͖ͳ͍
 → ػց͸ਓΛڻ͔ͤΔ͔͕ΑΓ௚઀తͳݴ໌ͰɺͦΕ͸͋Δ 14
15. /24 Learning Machines ਓؒ͸ྟքྔʹୡͨ͠ݪࢠ࿍ͷΑ͏ʹΞΠσΞΛ࿈࠯ͤ͞ಘΔ ػցʹ͸͜ͷΑ͏ͳৼΔ෣͍͕͋ΓಘΔͩΖ͏͔ʁ ࢠڙͷ৺Λ໛฿͢ΔͨΊʹ {Ҩ఻ܗ࣭ɺಥવมҟɺ࣮ݧऀ൑அ} Λదٓઃఆֶͯ͠शͤ͞Δͷ͕Αͦ͞͏ɻേͱใुΛ༩͑ͯɻ 15 Propositions leading to imperatives of this kind might be “When Socrates is mentioned, use the syllogism in Barbara or “If one method has been proved to be quicker than another, do not use the slower method . Some of these may be given by authority , but others may be produced by the machine itself, e.g. by scientific induction. The idea of a learning machine may appear paradoxical to some readers. How can the rules of operation of the machine change? They should describe completely how the machine will react whatever its history might be, whatever changes it might undergo. The rules are thus quite time- invariant. This is quite true. The explanation of the paradox is that the rules which get changed in the learning process are of a rather less pretentious kind, claiming only an ephemeral validity. The reader may draw a parallel with the Constitution of the United States. An important feature of a learning machine is that its teacher will often be very largely ignorant of quite what is going on inside, although he may still be able to some extent to predict his pupil s behaviour. This should apply most strongly to the later education of a machine arising from a child-
16. /24 ݁ͼ 16 We may hope that machines will eventually compete with men in all purely intellectual fields. But which are the best ones to start with? Even this is a difficult decision. Many people think that a very abstract activity, like the playing of chess, would be best. It can also be maintained that it is best to provide the machine with the best sense organs that money can buy, and then teach it to understand and speak English. This process could follow the normal teaching of a child. Things would be pointed out and named, etc. Again I do not know what the right answer is, but I think both approaches should be tried. We can only see a short distance ahead, but we can see plenty there that needs to be done. BIBLIOGRAPHY Samuel Butler, Erewhon, London, 1865. Chapters 23, 24, 25, The Book of the Machines. Alonzo Church, “An Unsolvable Problem of Elementary Number Theory , American J. of Math., 58 (1936), 345-363. K. Gödel, “Über formal unentscheildbare Sätze der Principia Mathematica
17. /24 2020 ೥͔ΒৼΓฦͬͯΈͯ • Imitation game ͔Β Turing testɺͦͯͦ͠ͷݱࡏ • ·ͣνΣε͔Β࢝ΊΑ • ڧ͍ AI / ऑ͍ AI ΁ͷ೿ੜ • ສೳνϡʔϦϯάϚγϯͷൃల • χϡʔϥϧωοτϫʔΫͷΧΦεੑ • ͋ͱ 50 ೥ͰهԱ༰ྔ͸ 10^9 ΄ͲʹͳΔͩΖ͏ͱ͍͏༧૝ 17
18. /24 Turing test ͷݱࡏ Turing ͷ༧ଌɿ
 
 
 ͦͷޙͲ͏ͳ͔ͬͨͱ͍͏ͱ… • 2014 chatbot Eugene ͕ 30% Ҏ্Λὃͨ͠ʢջٙతʣ • GPT3 ʹΑΔݕূɿࣙॻతͳ஌ࣝʹ͸ڧ͍͕·ͩ·ͩͳ໘΋ • Turing test ͷ࣮༻ੑ͸ջٙతͰΑΓಛఆ໨తͷݚڀ͕ଟ͍ 18 to be said in this connexion. It will simplify matters for the reader if I explain first my own beliefs in the matter. Consider first the more accurate form of the question. I believe that in about fifty years¶ time it will be possible to programme computers, with a storage capacity of about 109, to make them play the imitation game so well that an average interrogator will not have more than 70 per cent, chance of making the right identification after five minutes of questioning. The original question, µCan machines think!¶ I believe to be too meaningless to deserve discussion. Nevertheless I believe that at the end of the century the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted. I believe further that no useful purpose is served by concealing these beliefs. The popular view that scientists proceed inexorably from well-established fact to well-established fact, never being influenced by any unproved conjecture, is quite mistaken. Provided it is made clear which are proved facts and which are conjectures, no harm can result. Conjectures are of great importance since they suggest useful lines of research. X/236/433/986238 by guest on 15 November 2020 GPT3 ʹΑΔݕূ: https://lacker.io/ai/2020/07/06/giving-gpt-3-a-turing-test.html
19. /24 νΣεɺকعɺ༷ʑͳήʔϜ΁ Turing ͷݴٴɿ
 
 ͦͷޙͲ͏ͳ͔ͬͨͱ͍͏ͱ… • 1952 Turing ࣗ਎͕νΣεͷϓϩάϥϜΛॻ͍ͯಈ͔ͨ͠ • 1996 Deep Blue ͕ੈքνϟϯϐΦϯͷΧεύϩϑʹউར • কعɺғޟɺ༷ʑͳήʔϜ΁ͷരൃతͳల։ 19 460 A. M. TURING: the different genetical combinations that had been tried, so as to avoid trying them again? We may hope that machines will eventually compete with men in all purely intellectual fields. But which are the best ones to start with? Even this is a difficult decision. Many people think that a very abstract activity, like the playing of chess, would be best. It can also be maintained that it is best to provide the machine with the best sense organs that money can buy, and then teach it to understand and speak English. This process could follow the normal teaching of a child. Things would be pointed out and named, etc. Again I do not know what the right answer is, but I think both approaches should be tried. We can only see a short distance ahead, but we can see plenty there that needs to be done. BIBLIOGRAPHY Samuel Butler, Erewhon, London, 1865. Chapters 23, 24, 25, The Book of the Machines. Alonzo Church, “An Unsolvable Problem of Elementary Number Theory ,
20. /24 ڧ͍ AI / ऑ͍AI ࣗҙࣝ΍શೝ஌ೳྗΛ࣋ͭڧ͍ AI ͷ೉͠͞ • தࠃޠͷ෦԰ • ϑϨʔϜ໰୊ɺγϯϘϧάϥ΢ϯσΟϯά໰୊ɺ… • ػցʹࣗ༝ҙࢤ͸࣋ͯΔͷ͔ʁ ݱࡏ͸ऑ͍ AI ͷݚڀ͕΄ͱΜͲ ஌ੑͱ͸Կ͔ʁͱ͍͏໰͍ͷຊ࣭͸ԿͳͷͩΖ͏͔ʁ 20
21. /24 ສೳνϡʔϦϯάϚγϯ ίϯϐϡʔλ։ൃͷجૅͱͳΓɺOS ͱͯ͠΋޿͘ීٴ ࠷΋୯७ͳ Wolfram’s 2-state 3-symbol Turing machine • 2007 Wolfram ͕ $25000 ͷ৆ۚͰສೳੑূ໌໰୊Λग़ͨ͠ • 5 ϲ݄ޙʹ Alex Smith ͕ߠఆతʹূ໌ͨ͠ͱͯ͠৆ۚत༩ • Wolfram ͷଉ͕͔͔ͬͨͱ͜ΖͰೝΊΒΕ͚ͨͩͰջٙతʁ νϡʔϦϯά׬શͱ͍͏֓೦΋ڻ͘΄Ͳਁಁ͍ͯ͠Δ 21 ূ໌ͨ͠ͱ͞ΕΔ࿦จ: https://www.wolframscience.com/prizes/tm23/TM23Proof.pdf
22. /24 ػցֶशͷΧΦεੑ Turing ͷݴٴɿ
 
 
 
 
 ΧΦε͸཭ࢄঢ়ଶػցͰ΋ੜ͡Δ • χϡʔϥϧωοτϫʔΫ͸ߴ࣍ݩͷෳࡶͳʢ཭ࢄʣྗֶܥ • ೴ਆܦܥͰ͸ΧΦεతͳৼΔ෣͍͕؍ଌ͞Ε͍ͯΔ • ݚڀͱͯ͠͸͋Δ͚Ͳͦ͜·ͰओྲྀͰ͸ͳͦ͞͏ 22 are considering is, however, rather nearer to practicability than that considered by Laplace. The system of the µuniverse as a whole¶ is such that quite small errors in the initial conditions can have an overwhelming effect at a later time. The displacement of a single electron by a billionth of a centimetre at one moment might make the difference between a man being killed by an avalanche a year later, or escaping. It is an essential property of the mechanical systems which we have called µdiscrete state machines¶ that this phenomenon does not occur. Even when we consider the actual physical machines instead of the idealised machines, reasonably accurate knowledge of the state at one moment yields reasonably accurate knowledge any number of steps later.
23. /24 2000 ೥ʹ͸ 10^9 [bits] ͷهԱ༰ྔ 2000 ೥͸೔ຊͰॳΊͯ note PC ग़ՙ਺ > desktop PC ग़ՙ਺ NEC ͷ VALUESTAR ͸ RAM ૿ઃͯ͠ 512 [MB] 23 ը૾: https://support.nec-lavie.jp/e-manual/m/nx/html/v_g61.htm
24. /24 ·ͱΊ 24 COMPUTING MACHINERY AND INTELLIGENCE (1950) • https://academic.oup.com/mind/article/LIX/236/433/986238 • ਓ޻஌ೳݚڀͷ๖ժͱͳͬͨه೦ൾత࿦จ • ػց͸ߟ͑Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δ͔ʁͱ͍͏໰ΛఏҊ • ޙͷνϡʔϦϯάςετʹͳΔ໛฿ήʔϜΛఏҊ • ΊͪΌͪ͘Ό໘ന͍ΤοηΠΈ͍ͨͳײ͡ • ༷ʑͳ༧ݴత಺༰΋ؚΜͰ͍ͯࠓಡΈฦͯ͠΋໘ന͍ • ͜ΜͳӨڹྗͷ͋Δ໰Λݟ͚͍ͭͨ΋ͷͰ͢Ͷ…