Stop guessing, start winning: predicting winning products with PMax & Search

This talk is suitable for those who are actively running Performance Max and Shopping Ads and have a decent understanding of how product feeds work, and how to utilise custom labels in feeds.

Read on if you’re an e-commerce marketer or PPC specialist and want to level up your PMax strategies and better understand their interplay with Search campaigns.

We will look at:

● Discovering and applying a framework for predicting product success in Shopping Ads with PMax, including segmenting products based on performance and potential.

● Real-world examples of how dynamic product scoring and Search Space analysis can drive significant improvements in ROI for e-commerce advertisers with Google Ads.

● Understanding the concept of ‘Search Space’ and how it reveals the overlap and gaps in search term performance between Search and PMax campaigns.

Transcript

1. Stop Guessing, Start Knowing: Predicting Product Performance with PMax & Search Inderpaul Rai speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
2. We’re increasingly relying on AI
3. We’re all feeling it
4. Google Ads has become a gilded cage
5. 2017 Exact Match brutalised
6. 2017 2018 Exact Match brutalised RSAs launched
7. 2017 2018 2020 Exact Match brutalised Search terms restricted RSAs launched
8. 2017 2018 2020 2021 Exact Match brutalised PMax launched, BMM deprecated Search terms restricted RSAs launched
9. 2017 2018 2020 2021 2025 Exact Match brutalised PMax launched, BMM deprecated Search terms restricted RSAs launched AI Max
10. The truth is our jobs have changed
11. The Great Hanoi Rat Massacre of 1902
12. The Goal: Get rid of the rats
13. The System: Pay a bounty for every tail
14. The Outcome: People began farming rats
15. This is known as a Perverse Incentive
16. PMax feels like a leaky bucket Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
17. Take back control of PMax? Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
18. Stop guessing, start knowing Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
20. What did they actually try? Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
21. Segmented by category Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
22. Segmented by price point Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
23. Segmented by ROAS Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
24. Identifying seasonal products Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
25. Why didn’t PMax work for them? Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
26. Trapped by the Algorithm 90% of products not receiving volume Focus is on < 10% of inventory The Scaling Challenge: Due to tight target ROAS constraints, Google Ads focuses on the top 1-10% of products with historical volume and proven PPC performance Recency Bias: Algorithms prioritise what sold in the last 30 days, ignoring potential, new items lack the history needed for Google to push in the auction The Result: High-potential SKUs remain dormant, starved of impressions
27. What problem are we really trying to solve? Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
28. Align on what makes a 'best' product Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
29. Help Google prioritise the right products
30. …based on actual business data
31. The Framework: Reworking your portfolio Dormants This is the long tail of products that rarely have engagement and see very few sales. We'll likely look to alternative strategies to boost organic performance and improve their chances. Seasonal Stars Key seasonal collections and trending fashion items which perform exceptionally well during specific times of the year. Our processes will ensure maximum visibility & promotion when demand peaks. Champions Consistently high-performing fashion staples and wardrobe essentials that drive sales year-round. We focus on strong visibility and differentiation to ensure they remain top choices for customers. Challengers Emerging high-potential fashion pieces showing moderate customer interest. We'll be doing everything we can to optimise our offering here and drive substantial sales growth. Seeds Lower-performing or new products with sporadic sales. We aim to fulfil growth opportunities by highlighting USPs, testing creative strategies and identifying customer interest niches.
32. Champions Your superstars. Your best-sellers all year around. The Goal: Defend and dominate. Ensure always visible.
33. Champions Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
34. Challengers High-potential products showing signs of becoming champions The Goal: Grow & optimise to push to next level
35. Challengers Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
36. Seeds New or niche products with sporadic sales but potential The Goal: Nurture and test, finding the right audience
37. Seeds Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
38. Seasonal Products that peak during specific times of the year Goal: Anticipate and capitalise for max visibility
39. Seasonal Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
40. Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026 Accelerating Time-to-Profit: Anticipating The Peak Identifying ‘Seasonal Stars’ weeks in advance to capture demand before the auction heats up.
41. Dormants Products with declining or no sales that may need to be retired The Goal: Evaluate and decide to retire or optimise
42. Product classification and activation engine Out of Season Peak Expected In-Season Popularity Indicators • Product Page Views • Add-to-baskets • Purchases • Recently Added • Business Context • Fashion Trends Statistical & Regression Modelling Commercial Attributes • Conversion Rates • Purchases • Add-to-baskets • Rating • Price Point • Stock depth Commercial Attractiveness Algorithm Commercial Attractiveness High Mid Low Zero Dormants This is the long tail of products that rarely have engagement and see very few sales. We'll likely look to alternative strategies to boost organic performance and improve their chances. Seasonal Stars Key seasonal collections and trending fashion items which perform exceptionally well during specific times of the year. Our processes will ensure maximum visibility & promotion when demand peaks. Champions Consistently high-performing fashion staples and wardrobe essentials that drive sales year-round. We focus on strong visibility and differentiation to ensure they remain top choices for customers. Challengers Emerging high-potential fashion pieces showing moderate customer interest. We'll be doing everything we can to optimise our offering here and drive substantial sales growth. Lower-performing or new products with sporadic sales. We aim to fulfil growth opportunities by highlighting USPs, testing creative strategies and identifying customer interest niches. Seeds
43. Uncover hidden opportunities Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
45. Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
46. Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
47. Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
49. Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
50. nROI Commission Dynamic Shopping Structure Launched Onboarding Shopping Rebuild 16 weeks to MVP 1. Initial rebuild of shopping campaigns → 272% commission increase and 100% nROI increase in 16 weeks → Identified potential for further improvement due to inventory scale 2. Dynamic scoring model for inventory management → Existing custom labels only benefitted long-lifecycle products → New model: commercial + behavioural data to segment products The results speak for themselves +65% ROI (at comparable spend) +5% Seasonal Volume (at comparable spend) +62% Product Discoverability (products with >1 impression)
51. Take back control of PMax? Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
52. Take back control of PMax? Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
53. Feed PMax with beer intelligence Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
54. Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026 Your winning hand isn’t in the Google Ads UI
55. It’s in your own internal data Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026
56. Speakerdeck.com/inders @inderpaul-rai #FOS2026 Thank you