Upgrade to Pro — share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …

Story Points Suck!

Sponsored · Ship Features Fearlessly Turn features on and off without deploys. Used by thousands of Ruby developers. →
Avatar for Mauro Da Silva Mauro Da Silva
November 16, 2024
Programming
87
0

Story Points Suck!

Avatar for Mauro Da Silva

Mauro Da Silva

November 16, 2024

More Decks by Mauro Da Silva

See All by Mauro Da Silva
What Submarines & Chickens Can Teach You About Teams
Avatar for Mauro Da Silva maurodasilva
0
120

Other Decks in Programming

See All in Programming
テーブルをDELETEした
Avatar for yuzneri yuzneri
0
140
【やさしく解説 設計編・中級 #1】一つの車に、運転手は一人　～ある倉庫システムの事例から～
Avatar for HideyukiKitao panda728
PRO
0
210
Google Apps Script で Ruby を動かす
Avatar for Shogo Kawahara kawahara
0
140
php-fpmのプロセスが枯渇した日-調査・対処・そして本当にやるべきだったこと-
Avatar for にわ shibuchaaaan
0
240
FDEが実現するAI駆動経営の現在地
Avatar for ryuta sakamoto gonta
2
270
Laravelで学ぶ Webアプリケーションチューニング入門/web_application_tuning_101
Avatar for Ryo Tomidokoro hanhan1978
4
1.7k
torikago - Ruby::Boxで照らすモジュラモノリスの実行境界
Avatar for nori se4weed
1
350
ルールを書いて終わらせないハーネスエンジニアリング
Avatar for Yuji Yamaguchi yug1224
4
1.9k
「寝てても仕事が進む」Claude Codeで組む第二の脳
Avatar for t-fujita24 tomoyafujita2016
0
310
20260722_microCMSで考える、AI時代のコンテンツ運用設計
Avatar for Yoshihisa Kaino yosh1
0
380
使いながら育てる Claude Code — 開発フローの1コマンド化 × 繰り返し指摘の自動仕組み化
Avatar for endo shiki shiki_kakaku
0
1.7k
React本体のコードリーディング
Avatar for high-g high_g_engineer
1
140

Featured

See All Featured
Fireside Chat
Avatar for paigeccino paigeccino
42
4k
Conquering PDFs: document understanding beyond plain text
Avatar for Ines Montani inesmontani
PRO
4
2.9k
Max Prin - Stacking Signals: How International SEO Comes Together (And Falls Apart)
Avatar for Tech SEO Connect techseoconnect
PRO
0
360
Marketing Yourself as an Engineer | Alaka | Gurzu
Avatar for Gurzu gurzu
0
270
Facilitating Awesome Meetings
Avatar for Lara Hogan lara
57
7.1k
Designing for Performance
Avatar for Lara Hogan lara
611
70k
What's in a price? How to price your products and services
Avatar for Michael Herold michaelherold
247
13k
Between Models and Reality
Avatar for mayunak mayunak
4
390
Building a Scalable Design System with Sketch
Avatar for Laura Van Doore lauravandoore
463
34k
A designer walks into a library…
Avatar for Paul Jervis Heath pauljervisheath
211
24k
Mind Mapping
Avatar for Hélio Medeiros helmedeiros
PRO
1
300
Practical Orchestrator
Avatar for Shlomi Noach shlominoach
191
12k

Transcript

  1. Exploring a unique approach to estimation Managing Consultant Telstra Purple

  2. THE HISTORY

  3. …using them [story points] to predict “when we’ll be done”

    is at best a weak idea

  4. PROBLEMS WITH STORY POINTS

  5. 7:20AM Story Point

  6. How long does it take to get to work? EXPERIMENT

    1st March 2nd March 7:00AM 8:10AM 7:00AM 7:30AM 3rd March 7:00AM 7:20AM

  7. Plans based on average are wrong on average

  8. None

  9. PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING Reforecast with new information Think probabilistically, not

    deterministically
  10. None

  11. Scatterplot Cycle Time (Days)

  12. DON’T ESTIMATE STORIES

  13. WORK IN PROGRESS

  14. Monte Carlo Simulation

  15. EXPERIMENT

  16. EXPERIMENT

  17. 1 4 10,000x BASIC

  18. When will all the work be 1 1st Feb 2nd

    Feb 3rd Feb 4th Feb 0 2 1

  19. When will be

  20. How stories can be

  21. START FORECASTING in just Four weeks

  22. LITTLE’S LAW AVERAGE CYCLE TIME = AVERAGE WIP / AVERAGE

    THROUGPUT

  23. Use the assumptions of to verify stability

  24. CFD

  25. Average Arrival Rate Average Departure Rate matches

  26. Finish all work that is started

  27. Work in Progress should be constant

  28. Work in Progress should be constant Average Age of

  29. USE consistent UNITS

  30. Think probabilistically

  31. None

  32. scatterplot

  33. stories with

  34. Completion Predict with Monte Carlo Simulation

  35. Ensure stability with assumptions of

  36. IMPACTS Tomorrows PREDICTABILITY Today’s actions

  37. Thank you

  38. None