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Story Points Suck!

Avatar for Mauro Da Silva Mauro Da Silva
November 16, 2024
Programming
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Story Points Suck!

Avatar for Mauro Da Silva

Mauro Da Silva

November 16, 2024

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Transcript

  1. Exploring a unique approach to estimation Managing Consultant Telstra Purple

  2. THE HISTORY

  3. …using them [story points] to predict “when we’ll be done”

    is at best a weak idea

  4. PROBLEMS WITH STORY POINTS

  5. 7:20AM Story Point

  6. How long does it take to get to work? EXPERIMENT

    1st March 2nd March 7:00AM 8:10AM 7:00AM 7:30AM 3rd March 7:00AM 7:20AM

  7. Plans based on average are wrong on average

  8. None

  9. PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING Reforecast with new information Think probabilistically, not

    deterministically
  10. None

  11. Scatterplot Cycle Time (Days)

  12. DON’T ESTIMATE STORIES

  13. WORK IN PROGRESS

  14. Monte Carlo Simulation

  15. EXPERIMENT

  16. EXPERIMENT

  17. 1 4 10,000x BASIC

  18. When will all the work be 1 1st Feb 2nd

    Feb 3rd Feb 4th Feb 0 2 1

  19. When will be

  20. How stories can be

  21. START FORECASTING in just Four weeks

  22. LITTLE’S LAW AVERAGE CYCLE TIME = AVERAGE WIP / AVERAGE

    THROUGPUT

  23. Use the assumptions of to verify stability

  24. CFD

  25. Average Arrival Rate Average Departure Rate matches

  26. Finish all work that is started

  27. Work in Progress should be constant

  28. Work in Progress should be constant Average Age of

  29. USE consistent UNITS

  30. Think probabilistically

  31. None

  32. scatterplot

  33. stories with

  34. Completion Predict with Monte Carlo Simulation

  35. Ensure stability with assumptions of

  36. IMPACTS Tomorrows PREDICTABILITY Today’s actions

  37. Thank you

  38. None