Upgrade to Pro
— share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …
Speaker Deck
Features
Speaker Deck
PRO
Sign in
Sign up for free
Search
Search
Story Points Suck!
Search
Mauro Da Silva
November 16, 2024
Programming
0
42
Story Points Suck!
Mauro Da Silva
November 16, 2024
Tweet
Share
More Decks by Mauro Da Silva
See All by Mauro Da Silva
What Submarines & Chickens Can Teach You About Teams
maurodasilva
0
87
Other Decks in Programming
See All in Programming
Porting a visionOS App to Android XR
akkeylab
0
570
すべてのコンテキストを、 ユーザー価値に変える
applism118
3
1.4k
プロダクト志向なエンジニアがもう一歩先の価値を目指すために意識したこと
nealle
0
140
Google Agent Development Kit でLINE Botを作ってみた
ymd65536
2
260
AI時代の『改訂新版 良いコード/悪いコードで学ぶ設計入門』 / ai-good-code-bad-code
minodriven
20
7.9k
코딩 에이전트 체크리스트: Claude Code ver.
nacyot
0
670
Android 16KBページサイズ対応をはじめからていねいに
mine2424
0
110
PostgreSQLのRow Level SecurityをPHPのORMで扱う Eloquent vs Doctrine #phpcon #track2
77web
2
540
テスト駆動Kaggle
isax1015
0
400
Agentic Coding: The Future of Software Development with Agents
mitsuhiko
0
110
テストから始めるAgentic Coding 〜Claude Codeと共に行うTDD〜 / Agentic Coding starts with testing
rkaga
13
4.8k
ruby.wasmで多人数リアルタイム通信ゲームを作ろう
lnit
3
490
Featured
See All Featured
Product Roadmaps are Hard
iamctodd
PRO
54
11k
Fireside Chat
paigeccino
37
3.5k
Imperfection Machines: The Place of Print at Facebook
scottboms
267
13k
Building Flexible Design Systems
yeseniaperezcruz
328
39k
Responsive Adventures: Dirty Tricks From The Dark Corners of Front-End
smashingmag
251
21k
Connecting the Dots Between Site Speed, User Experience & Your Business [WebExpo 2025]
tammyeverts
6
310
Intergalactic Javascript Robots from Outer Space
tanoku
271
27k
Why You Should Never Use an ORM
jnunemaker
PRO
58
9.4k
Being A Developer After 40
akosma
90
590k
Java REST API Framework Comparison - PWX 2021
mraible
31
8.7k
Speed Design
sergeychernyshev
32
1k
Side Projects
sachag
455
42k
Transcript
Exploring a unique approach to estimation Managing Consultant Telstra Purple
THE HISTORY
…using them [story points] to predict “when we’ll be done”
is at best a weak idea
PROBLEMS WITH STORY POINTS
7:20AM Story Point
How long does it take to get to work? EXPERIMENT
1st March 2nd March 7:00AM 8:10AM 7:00AM 7:30AM 3rd March 7:00AM 7:20AM
Plans based on average are wrong on average
None
PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING Reforecast with new information Think probabilistically, not
deterministically
None
Scatterplot Cycle Time (Days)
DON’T ESTIMATE STORIES
WORK IN PROGRESS
Monte Carlo Simulation
EXPERIMENT
EXPERIMENT
1 4 10,000x BASIC
When will all the work be 1 1st Feb 2nd
Feb 3rd Feb 4th Feb 0 2 1
When will be
How stories can be
START FORECASTING in just Four weeks
LITTLE’S LAW AVERAGE CYCLE TIME = AVERAGE WIP / AVERAGE
THROUGPUT
Use the assumptions of to verify stability
CFD
Average Arrival Rate Average Departure Rate matches
Finish all work that is started
Work in Progress should be constant
Work in Progress should be constant Average Age of
USE consistent UNITS
Think probabilistically
None
scatterplot
stories with
Completion Predict with Monte Carlo Simulation
Ensure stability with assumptions of
IMPACTS Tomorrows PREDICTABILITY Today’s actions
Thank you
None