Ian Foster -- How to Grow the Economy by 10% Per Year

Economic growth is driven by the evolving interplay between innovation and automation: the former providing new products and services and the latter enabling cost-competitive and timely production and delivery. Information technology plays an increasingly central role in this process--a role that is only going to accelerate in the next decade as a result of advances in cloud and multicore computing. I discuss the challenges and opportunities inherent in a hyper-connected, hyper-automated world, with a particular emphasis on what they mean for the wonderful country of New Zealand.

Transcript

1. computationinstitute.org How to grow the economy by 10% per year Ian Foster, Computation Institute foster@anl.gov Multicore World 2013, Wellington, NZ
2. computationinstitute.org Abstract Economic growth is driven by the evolving interplay between innovation and automation: the former providing new products and services and the latter enabling cost-competitive and timely production and delivery. Information technology plays an increasingly central role in this process--a role that is only going to accelerate in the next decade as a result of advances in cloud and multicore computing. I discuss the challenges and opportunities inherent in a hyper- connected, hyper-automated world, with a particular emphasis on what they mean for the wonderful country of New Zealand.
3. computationinstitute.org Paul  Callaghan,  1947-­‐2012     h2p://bit.ly/hs3oaN  
4. computationinstitute.org Japan Greece Spain Iceland Canada USA Ireland UK Sweden Italy Germany Belgium France Austria Netherlands Finland Switzerland Australia
5. computationinstitute.org Japan New Zealand Greece Spain Iceland Canada USA Ireland UK Sweden Italy Germany Belgium Austria Netherlands Finland Switzerland Australia France
6. computationinstitute.org 0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 Needed for current per capita GDP 200,000 100,000 300,000 Fonterra Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Total NZ Manufacturing Tourism Revenue per employee FTE of employment NZ Manufacturing Exports Food manufacturing Wine
7. 100  companies  —  mash.hashbang.co.nz  
8. computationinstitute.org Civilization advances by extending the number of important operations which we can perform without thinking about them Alfred North Whitehead (1911)
9. computationinstitute.org The three exponentials of the information revolution Communications Computation Storage Time     1.E+00   1.E+01   1.E+02   1.E+03   1.E+04   1.E+05   1.E+06   1.E+07   1.E+08   1.E+09   Capability  for  fixed  price  
10. computationinstitute.org Communications Computation Storage 1.E+00   1.E+01   1.E+02   1.E+03   1.E+04   1.E+05   1.E+06   1.E+07   1.E+08   1.E+09   Time     Capability  for  fixed  price   Price  for  fixed  capability   The three exponentials of the information revolution
11. computationinstitute.org Paragon: 1996, 1024 cores, $10M 2 Gflop/s for climate model code
12. computationinstitute.org $898,921  from  4,965  backers   Parallella: 16 cores, 26 GFlops, $99 (later  64)  
13. computationinstitute.org Exponentials à new paradigms
14. computationinstitute.org Exponentials à new paradigms Digital visual effects
15. computationinstitute.org Exponentials à new paradigms Digital visual effects Digital fabrication
16. computationinstitute.org Additive manufacturing Massey  University  School  of  Design,  Wellington  
17. computationinstitute.org Exponentials à new paradigms Digital visual effects Digital fabrication Industrial Internet
18. computationinstitute.org The “Industrial Internet” “GE thinks that cheaper computing power 
 and sensors are now poised to usher in a 
 new era of big data for industry. Jeff 
 Immelt, GE’s CEO, has called the idea a 
 revolution, and the company’s top 
 economist has suggested it could help 
 increase worker productivity by as much as 
 1.5 percent a year.” h2p://www.technologyreview.com/news/509331/an-­‐internet-­‐for-­‐manufacturing/  
19. computationinstitute.org Factory of the future
20. computationinstitute.org Exponentials à new paradigms Digital visual effects Digital fabrication Industrial Internet Data analytics
21. computationinstitute.org
22. computationinstitute.org
23. computationinstitute.org Exponentials à new paradigms Digital visual effects Digital fabrication Industrial Internet Data analytics Cloud computing
24. computationinstitute.org 24   Aotearoa  
25. computationinstitute.org SaaS   PaaS   IaaS   Software Platform Infrastructure Salesforce, Google, Animoto, …
26. computationinstitute.org SaaS   PaaS   IaaS   Platform Infrastructure Amazon, GoGrid, Microsoft, … Software Salesforce, Google, Animoto, …
27. computationinstitute.org SaaS   PaaS   IaaS   Platform Infrastructure Google, Microsoft, Amazon, … Software Salesforce, Google, Animoto, … Infrastructure Amazon, GoGrid, Microsoft, …
29. computationinstitute.org You can now run a company 
 from a coffee shop
30. computationinstitute.org Thinking outside the box for small and medium businesses •  Web presence •  Email (hosted Exchange) •  Calendar •  Telephony (hosted VOIP) •  Human resources and payroll •  Accounting •  Customer relationship management Software as a service SaaS
31. computationinstitute.org •  Web presence •  Email (hosted Exchange) •  Calendar •  Telephony (hosted VOIP) •  Human resources and payroll •  Accounting •  Customer relationship management •  Data analytics •  Content distribution •  … Infrastructure/ platform IaaS/ PaaS Thinking outside the box for small and medium businesses Software as a service SaaS
32. computationinstitute.org 32  
33. computationinstitute.org Most research occurs in small labs NSF grants 2007 < $350,000 80% of awards 50% of grant $$ Heidorn,  Library    Trends,  57(2),  2008   $1,000,000 $100,000 $10,000 $1,000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000
34. computationinstitute.org Helping small labs prosper "Well, in our country," said Alice … 
 "you'd generally get to somewhere 
 else — if you run very fast for a 
 long time, as we've been doing.” "A slow sort of country!" said the 
 Queen. "Now, here, you see, it 
 takes all the running you can do, 
 to keep in the same place. If you 
 want to get somewhere else, you 
 must run at least twice as fast as that!"
35. computationinstitute.org Need: A new way to deliver research infrastructure
 
 
 Frictionless Affordable Sustainable
36. computationinstitute.org Thinking outside the box
 for small and medium laboratories •  Run experiments •  Collect data •  Manage data •  Move data •  Analyze data •  Run simulations •  Compare experiment with simulation •  Search the literature •  Share results •  Communicate •  Publish papers •  Find, configure, install relevant software •  Find, access, analyze relevant data •  Document research •  Order supplies •  …
37. computationinstitute.org Thinking outside the box
 for small and medium laboratories •  Run experiments •  Collect data •  Manage data •  Move data •  Analyze data •  Run simulations •  Compare experiment with simulation •  Search the literature •  Share results •  Communicate •  Publish papers •  Find, configure, install relevant software •  Find, access, analyze relevant data •  Document research •  Order supplies •  …
39. computationinstitute.org Thinking outside the box
 for small and medium laboratories •  Run experiments •  Collect data •  Manage data •  Move data •  Analyze data •  Run simulations •  Compare experiment with simulation •  Search the literature •  Share results •  Communicate •  Publish papers •  Find, configure, install relevant software •  Find, access, analyze relevant data •  Document research •  Order supplies •  …
40. computationinstitute.org We asked ourselves:
 
 What if the research work flow could be managed as easily as… …our  pictures   …home  entertainment   …our  e-­‐mail  
41. computationinstitute.org What makes these services great? 
 Great User Experience + High-performance 
 (but invisible) infrastructure
42. computationinstitute.org We aspire (initially) to create a great user experience for
 research data management
 What would a “dropbox for science” look like?
43. computationinstitute.org • Collect   • Move   • Sync   • Share   • Analyze   • Annotate   • Publish   • Search   • Backup   • Archive   BIG  DATA   …for
44. computationinstitute.org • Collect   • Move   • Sync   • Share   • Analyze   • Annotate   • Publish   • Search   • Backup   • Archive   • Collect   • Move   • Sync   • Share     Capabilities delivered using 
 Software-as-Service (SaaS) model
45. computationinstitute.org Early  adop^on  is  encouraging  
46. computationinstitute.org Early  adop^on  is  encouraging   8,000  registered  users;  ~100  daily   >10  PB  moved;  ~1B  files   10x  (or  beJer)  performance  vs.  scp   99.9%  availability   EnPrely  hosted  on  Amazon  
47. computationinstitute.org A platform for integration
48. computationinstitute.org Japan Greece Spain Iceland Canada USA Ireland UK Sweden Italy Germany Belgium Austria Netherlands Finland Switzerland Australia France New Zealand
49. computationinstitute.org “Rich economies must 
 defend themselves by 
 remaining on the 
 cutting edge of 
 research, moving into 
 new and growing 
 branches, learning from 
 others, finding the right 
 niches, by cultivating 
 and using ability and 
 knowledge."
50. computationinstitute.org R&D vs. GDP per capita, 1981-2009 NZ  spends  1.3%  of  GDP  on  R&D,  vs.  OECD  average  of  2.3%   h2p://www.msi.govt.nz/assets/PoweringInnova^on.pdf  
51. computationinstitute.org “Digital innovation and high-speed broadband 
 will fuel productivity growth across every 
 sector” — Stephen Conroy, Australia h2p://bit.ly/11fncbe  
52. computationinstitute.org Economic growth via the knowledge economy
 100 companies, 100 inspired entrepreneurs Government commitment to strategy: “A country where talent wants to live” •  Commitment to education –  Tell stories of job opportunities for New Zealand kids at home –  Significantly boost science and mathematics education in schools –  Build school programs for entrepreneurship; university engineering & science capability –  Refine PBRF to reward commercialization work •  Commitment to R&D –  Boost science and engineering research from 0.52% GDP to 0.7% GDP –  Enhance R&D credits to the knowledge sector –  Compel CRIs to give IP share of benefits to employees and allow employee spinout –  Help establish incubators, business/engineering/science synergy •  Commitment to branding –  Understand the value of the conservation estate: livable cities, quality of life –  Identify and “call out” phony environmentalism and “science phobia” –  Market NZ as the “smart country, a place where talent wants to live” •  Commitment to leadership and vision –  Bipartisan vision –  Evidence basis for decisions—understand what works for us
53. computationinstitute.org Thank  you  to  my  sponsors!  
54. computationinstitute.org 
 Questions?
 
 foster@uchicago.edu