GFF Keynote

Transcript

1. Michell Zappa @envisioningtech mz@envisioningtech.com envisioningtech.com Over the last day we have looked at dozens of intriguing emerging technologies and have also started thinking about what they mean for the future of security. I’m here today to talk a little bit about my approach for looking at these technologies by taking a step back, looking at how they relate, and to envision scenarios we might expect based on current trends.
2. envisioning technology I’ve published a visualization called “Envisioning Technology”.
3. ENERGY ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS SENSORS GEOTECH SPACE INTERFACES UBICOMP INTERNET Commercial spaceflight Inductive chargers Fuel cells Bio-enhanced fuels Tidal turbines Additive manufacturing Graphene Self-healing materials Personal gene sequencing Organ printing Smart toys Appliance robots Volumetric (3D) screens Flexible screens Tablets Boards Biometric sensors Depth imaging Near-field communication Pervasive video capture Speech recognition Augmented reality Gesture recognition Multi touch 4G Cloud computing Cyber- warfare Mesh networking AI INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE GEOTECH The key idea is to look at all sorts of emerging technologies. I started by organizing my research across eleven areas, “from bits to atoms”s, to speak.
4. Machine augmented cognition 2030 2040 Domestic robots Embodied avatars Swarm robotics Utility fog Reprogrammable chips Skin-embedded screens Retinal screens Optogenetics Neuro- informatics Immersive virtual reality Interplanetary internet Exocortex Remote presence Machine- augmented cognition 2012 2020 2030 2040 The next step is spreading out the observations on a timeline. We cover speculations for approximately the next 30 years.
5. ROBOTICS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SENSORS INTERFACES UBICOMP INTERNET Smart toys Appliance robots Volumetric (3D) screens Flexible screens Tablets Boards Biometric sensors Depth imaging Near-field communication Pervasive video capture Speech recognition Augmented reality Gesture recognition Multi touch 4G Cloud computing Cyber- warfare Mesh networking Software agents High-frequency trading Natural language interpretation
6. Weather engineering Sub-orbital spaceflight Space tourism Multi-segmented smart grids Piezo- electricity Photvoltaic glass Personal fabricators Meta- materials Optical invisibility cloaks In-vitro meat Personalized medicine Smart drugs Synthetic blood Robotic surgery Self-driving vehicles Powered exoskeleton Unmanned aerial
7. Mole asse Nan Artificial retinas Gene therapy Hybrid assisted limbs Swarm robotics Skin-embedded screens Retinal screens Optogenetics Neuro- informatics Immersive virtual reality e
8. Machine augmented cognition 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2030 2040 ENERGY ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SENSORS GEOTECH QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS SPACE INTERFACES UBICOMP INTERNET World population 8 billion Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS BRICs GDP overtakes the G7 Source: Goldman Sachs – http://bit.ly/nc9Wqj Petabyte storage standard Source: http://bit.ly/r9BYQc Exabyte storage standard Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb Terabit internet speed standard Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb World population reaches 9 billion Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS Source: http://bit.ly/6MoQJc Sources: Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04 Ericsson – http://bit.ly/avvVok Alan Conroy – http://bit.ly/pofHp5 FutureTimeline – http://bit.ly/qz4ben Sources: Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04 InternetWorldStats – http://bit.ly/AKbO5 Global online population: ± 2 billion Connected devices: ±10 billion Global online population: 4-5 billion Connected devices: 30-50 billion $150 Hard disk: ±200 Tb Standard RAM: ±750Gb Global online population: ± 2.5 billion Connected devices: ±15 billion $ 1.000 computer reaches the capacity of the human brain (± 1015 calculations per second) Vertical farming Weather engineering Sea- steading Desalination Carbon sequestration Climate engineering Arcologies Commercial spaceflight Sub-orbital spaceflight Lunar outpost Mars mission Solar sail Space elevator Space tourism Inductive chargers Thorium reactor Traveling wave reactor Fuel cells Multi-segmented smart grids Biomechanical harvesting Bio-enhanced fuels Artificial photosynthesis Space-based solar power Piezo- electricity Photvoltaic glass Nano- generators Enernet Tidal turbines Programmable matter Personal fabricators Molecular assembler Meta- materials Additive manufacturing Graphene Optical invisibility cloaks Biomaterials Carbon nanotubes Self-healing materials Nanowires Anti- aging drugs Stem-cell treatments In-vitro meat Nanomedicine Artificial retinas Personal gene sequencing Synthetic biology Personalized medicine Gene therapy Hybrid assisted limbs Smart drugs Synthetic blood Organ printing Smart toys Robotic surgery Appliance robots Self-driving vehicles Domestic robots Powered exoskeleton Embodied avatars Swarm robotics Utility fog Unmanned aerial vehicles Fabric-embedded screens Reprogrammable chips Pico- projectors Volumetric (3D) screens Flexible screens Skin-embedded screens Tablets Boards Retinal screens Eyewear-embedded screens Context-aware computing Smart power meters Biometric sensors Machine vision Optogenetics Depth imaging Biomarkers Neuro- informatics Near-field communication Pervasive video capture Computational photography Speech recognition Haptics 4K Augmented reality Gesture recognition Multi touch Immersive virtual reality Holography Telepresence 4G 5G Cloud computing Interplanetary internet Exocortex Virtual currencies Cyber- warfare Mesh networking Reputation economy Remote presence VR-only lifeforms Machine- augmented cognition Software agents High-frequency trading Natural language interpretation Procedural storytelling Machine translation You can see it as an “interdisciplinary roadmap for the future.”
9. Machine augmented cognition 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2030 2040 ENERGY ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SENSORS GEOTECH QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS SPACE INTERFACES UBICOMP INTERNET World population 8 billion Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS BRICs GDP overtakes the G7 Source: Goldman Sachs – http://bit.ly/nc9Wqj Petabyte storage standard Source: http://bit.ly/r9BYQc Exabyte storage standard Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb Terabit internet speed standard Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb World population reaches 9 billion Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS Source: http://bit.ly/6MoQJc Sources: Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04 Ericsson – http://bit.ly/avvVok Alan Conroy – http://bit.ly/pofHp5 FutureTimeline – http://bit.ly/qz4ben Sources: Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04 InternetWorldStats – http://bit.ly/AKbO5 Global online population: ± 2 billion Connected devices: ±10 billion Global online population: 4-5 billion Connected devices: 30-50 billion $150 Hard disk: ±200 Tb Standard RAM: ±750Gb Global online population: ± 2.5 billion Connected devices: ±15 billion $ 1.000 computer reaches the capacity of the human brain (± 1015 calculations per second) Vertical farming Weather engineering Sea- steading Desalination Carbon sequestration Climate engineering Arcologies Commercial spaceflight Sub-orbital spaceflight Lunar outpost Mars mission Solar sail Space elevator Space tourism Inductive chargers Thorium reactor Traveling wave reactor Fuel cells Multi-segmented smart grids Biomechanical harvesting Bio-enhanced fuels Artificial photosynthesis Space-based solar power Piezo- electricity Photvoltaic glass Nano- generators Enernet Tidal turbines Programmable matter Personal fabricators Molecular assembler Meta- materials Additive manufacturing Graphene Optical invisibility cloaks Biomaterials Carbon nanotubes Self-healing materials Nanowires Anti- aging drugs Stem-cell treatments In-vitro meat Nanomedicine Artificial retinas Personal gene sequencing Synthetic biology Personalized medicine Gene therapy Hybrid assisted limbs Smart drugs Synthetic blood Organ printing Smart toys Robotic surgery Appliance robots Self-driving vehicles Domestic robots Powered exoskeleton Embodied avatars Swarm robotics Utility fog Unmanned aerial vehicles Fabric-embedded screens Reprogrammable chips Pico- projectors Volumetric (3D) screens Flexible screens Skin-embedded screens Tablets Boards Retinal screens Eyewear-embedded screens Context-aware computing Smart power meters Biometric sensors Machine vision Optogenetics Depth imaging Biomarkers Neuro- informatics Near-field communication Pervasive video capture Computational photography Speech recognition Haptics 4K Augmented reality Gesture recognition Multi touch Immersive virtual reality Holography Telepresence 4G 5G Cloud computing Interplanetary internet Exocortex Virtual currencies Cyber- warfare Mesh networking Reputation economy Remote presence VR-only lifeforms Machine- augmented cognition Software agents High-frequency trading Natural language interpretation Procedural storytelling Machine translation But I think it’s true worth is displayed when you start connecting the dots between the individual technologies and start thinking about the critical paths between them.
10. GPS GPS GPS GPS One way of seeing intersections between different technologies is from looking backwards in time. Take an existing product or service and flesh out the individual components that were necessary for it to be invented. What makes YouTube possible? The combination of: ubiquitous cameras, cheap storage, fast processing, a proliferation of internet users and fast internet access.
11. GPS GPS Same thing for a service like 23andMe. It was only possible after the proliferation of fast processing, automatic sequencing machines, optical sensors and a degree of social network analysis.
12. Scenario #1: Surveillance Today I’ll go over three brief sci-fi scenarios based on extrapolating existing trends.
13. A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors: Experiments performed with a team of nano quadrotors at the GRASP Lab, University of Pennsylvania http:/ /www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQIMGV5vtd4
14. The rise in drone journalism.
15. Moscow protests http:/ /dronejournalism.tumblr.com/post/14136093865/more-on-the-moscow-protest-photos
16. http:/ /www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=9vOor1xmVDs
17. The Xbox Kinect - a brilliant example of depth imaging (or computer vision) popularizing as a toy.
18. http:/ /www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QrnwoO1-8A This is how the Kinect sees the world.
19. Drone cameras Swarm robotics Computer vision So where do you end up in a future where these three technologies are prominent?
20. Imagine a future with a swarm of thumbnail-sized flying nanocopters with 3D cameras on them.
21. “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON” Imagine a cloud of cameras. Unstoppable, able to see everything. Drop it into a hostage situation or use it for spying. The possibilities and risks are endless.
22. “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”
23. “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON” And if you doubt the possibility, check the AR.Drone Parrot, a $300 helicopter toy with a camera which is controlled by an iPhone app.
24. Scenario #2: Urban intelligence
25. Outboard brain: http:/ /www.wired.com/techbiz/people/magazine/15-10/st_thompson We are outsourcing as much information as possible from our brains into our portable devices. Phone numbers, addresses, directions, etc.
26. And we are outsourcing the decision-making process to our devices. Here is a WiFi-enabled umbrella which flashes if it’s going to rain. No need to look up the weather.
27. We’re moving toward an internet of things, where all infrastructure is interdependent and connected. Sometimes called the “smart city”.
28. The surge of personal agents.
29. Coupled with context-aware computers which know where we are.
30. Smart infrastructure Personal agents Contextual computing
31. “DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO” I call this trend “tell me what to do”. A scenario where the computer, or the network, is smart enough to guide you through your day. Tell you which road to take based on traffic patterns, notify you when a friend is nearby, coordinate your calendar, etc. http:/ /www.flickr.com/photos/cowboyuk80/3742085978/sizes/o/in/photostream/
32. “DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO” http:/ /www.flickr.com/photos/cowboyuk80/3742085978/sizes/o/in/photostream/
33. Scenario #3: Self-organization
34. Mobile phones generally work by connecting wirelessly to microcells. It’s a distributed but centralized network.
35. We are seeing the rise of mesh networks, or mobile ad-hoc networks. Instead of being centralized around antennas, each node becomes a relay. This means mobile phones with this technology can communicate without any existing infrastructure in place.
36. “In essence, Mobile Hotspots seeks to provide cell-tower-class performance without the infrastructure.” And DARPA is already working on this technology. http:/ /www.darpa.mil/NewsEvents/Releases/2012/02/10.aspx
37. Likewise, we usually think of energy as a centralized process.
38. But with the rise of photovoltaic capacity in solar cells, we’re quickly reaching the point where that’s no longer necessary.
39. Look at the rising lines. Photovoltaic efficiency rises yearly.
40. http:/ /www.technologyreview.com/energy/39544/
41. $799.99 And finally, smartphones are generally seen as expensive.
42. $ But the trend is for the price of all electronics to drop quickly over time.
43. Mesh networking Photovoltaics Affordable smartphones
44. “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS” The takeaway? Imagine a cheap smartphone that works entirely off the grid. Communicates with anyone on the network, and is impossible to censor. Now imagine airdropping those into a country where communications have been shut down by the government.
45. “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS” Given the right political conditions and level of tension, you could potentially set off a revolution like what we saw around the middle east in 2011.
46. “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS” Without naming names, I’m sure you can all think of a couple of regions where these airdrops could come in handy.
47. “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS” “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON” “DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO” Again, this is just a handful of scenarios based on less than a dozen actual technologies.
48. The other characteristic about technology is how it’s always progressing. A century ago, humanity had never even taken flight. Now, we take it for granted. (1903)
49. Same with medical imaging. (1895)
50. Connect the dots. See where technologies intersect.
51. Thank you. @envisioningtech mz@envisioningtech.com envisioningtech.com