ИТ Митап-на-Дону | Карта будущего для Ethereum | Lido

Map of the Future: стратегическое будущее Ethereum — презентация описывает методологию foresight-планирования для экосистемы Ethereum. Анализируются тренды (институциональное влияние, ИИ, регулирование), сценарии развития (перегрузка консенсуса, сокращение эмиссии, потеря лидерства), возможные угрозы (централизация, политическое давление, цензура) и предлагаются стратегические шаги для адаптации и роста в условиях конкуренции с другими блокчейнами.

Transcript

1. Map of the Future How to make strategic bets for Ethereum
2. Foresight Methodology Foreseeing Ethereum Map of the Future 03 09 10 Agenda Ethereum Scenarios 17
3. Foresight methodology
4. • Ethereum ecosystem, target audience: Ethereum high priests Map of the Future 03 • Strategic bets: Visions of the future opportunities/threats and development paths Scenarios 02 • All-in-one-at-a-glance view: A conceptual framework for organizing diverse signals and aggregating them up to future “hot spots” Foresight Scope 01 What we're presenting 4
5. Foresight Scope
6. Map of the Future: Template
7. Map of the Future: Template 7
8. Scenarios
9. Foreseeing Ethereum
10. Map of the Future - by Research [Ethereum Master Map]
11. MoF: Ethereum ecosystem [before the USA elections]
12. Trends we dropped
13. Cards we dropped
14. Feedback we got so fa (1) Top-3 trends shaping Ethereum future • • • Growing institutional investments in Web3 (71% participants) Institutional inflows are expected to remain a critical driver of Ethereum and Lido’s growth, though they pose potential risks of centralization and regulatory challenges Expanding scale and use cases for AI (71% participants) AI integration is projected to play a transformative role in shaping Web3 technologies, though its implications for Ethereum and Lido require further exploration Increasing regulatory oversight of Web3 (59% participants) Enhanced regulation is inevitable and will influence Lido’s strategic decisions, particularly in key markets like the US
15. Feedback we got so fa (2) Promising trends to watch​ • • Institutional & financial nihilism and cultural shifts Changes in generational values and societal perspectives may redefine user engagement and financial behavior within the ecosystem, especially through products like memecoins and speculative assets Competition from other blockchains Emerging ecosystems like Solana are increasingly attracting liquidity, talent, and projects, challenging Ethereum’s leadership and necessitating adaptive strategies from Lido
16. 1. • • 2. • 3. • Share your opinion on the presented materials Challenge the set of Ethereum Master Map's trends/cards Are all of them relevant? Are all of them important? Challenge the discarded trends / cards Are there any trends / cards that are of relevance / importance and should not have been dropped? Champion new trends/cards you want to add/replace Is there something missing on Ethereum Master Maps and discarded trends / cards? Call for feedback (1)
17. Ethereum Scenarios - by Research
18. • L2s Lead Innovation: While Ethereum’s L1 upgrades are slow, L2s and sidechains drive progress, using Ethereum’s decentralization and regulatory protections • Value Back to ETH: L2s return value to Ethereum via fees, restaking, and revenue sharing • Ecosystem Boost: “Default rollups” enhance speed, UX, and censorship resistance, relying on L1 liquidity and node operators Short-term Overloading Ethereum Consensus (1)
19. • Funding New Products: Redistributing staking rewards and revenue sharing supports ETH-based product development, similar to Zcash • Expanding ETH Utility: ETH use cases grow beyond the Ethereum network (EN), which stays the flagship but not the sole ETH platform • Balancing Views: Tensions between EN purists and ETH-maxis favor a neutral, cautious EN while other products explore new possibilities Mid-term Overloading Ethereum Consensus (2)
20. • Decentralized Product Suite: Ethereum is a unique group of decentralized products, aligned with the whitepaper’s vision • Ecosystem Value: Together, other ETH-based products now rival the Ethereum network in value, forming an integral part of the ecosystem Long-term Overloading Ethereum Consensus (3)
21. • • • Sequencing Fees and Revenue Sharing Diverse Ethereum Ecosystem Flagship Status for ETH-based Products Opportunities Overloading Ethereum Consensus (4) • • • • Loss of Edge to Competitors Political turmoil Competition between Ethereum and ETH-based products Misaligned incentive structures Threats
22. • • • Invent a mechanism for funding ETH-based products that rewards early funders and adopters but doesn’t create too much disalignement Advocate for making the separation between Ethereum network and ETH the asset clearer Make ETH-based products Next move needed Overloading Ethereum Consensus (5)
23. • Future Concerns: EF researchers worry about the risk of a single dominant LST, despite current satisfaction with Lido’s role in staking • Centralization Warnings Unheard: Lido’s call to avoid validator centralization lacks impact due to an unclear public vision • Dominance Risk: Lido’s potential dominance (close to 100% of ETH staked) remains a major concern Short-term Issuance cut (1)
24. • Centralization: An issuance cut accelerates validator centralization, with over 50% run by Coinbase, especially as staking ETFs are approved • Censorship Pressure: U.S. pressures Coinbase to censor certain addresses, initially targeting sanctioned entities but gradually expanding •Partial Compliance: Coinbase selectively censors, causing delays for censored transactions but allowing them eventually Mid-term Issuance cut (2)
25. • Censorship Escalates: In 2032, Coinbase’s new leadership bows to government pressure, censoring privacy transactions entirely • Community Division on Farcaster: Major voices on Farcaster call for an Ethereum fork to remove Coinbase-aligned stakers, but pro-Coinbase influencers push back, citing user impact and ETH price concerns • Contentious Fork: The Ethereum community splits, creating two separate chains, fracturing Ethereum’s vision of a neutral, global platform Long-term Issuance cut (3)
26. • Upgrade Slowdown: Disagreements on Ethereum’s direction lead to delays in important upgrades, causing key contributors to leave • Shift in User Base: New users flock to L2s, alternative L1s, and chain-abstracted apps, with little interest in Ethereum’s founding ideals • Evolving Values: Projects cater to these new users, moving away from Ethereum’s original crypto values Short-term Loss of Primacy (1)
27. • Governance Issues: Ethereum’s internal conflicts and slow innovation make independent rollups more appealing than Ethereum-centric L2s • Loss of Edge: While existing capital keeps Ethereum relevant, it loses its position as a leader, with economic activity shifting to centralized, off-chain solutions • Unified Ecosystem: Cross-chain solutions blur distinctions between L1s, L2s, and other layers, making them indistinguishable to users Mid-term Loss of Primacy (2)
28. • Unified Approach: After a wake-up call and some desertion, the Ethereum community consolidates around a single strategy • Balanced Market Position: Ethereum secures a modest share of blockspace and MEV, standing on equal terms with L2s and other L1s rather than as a clear leader Long-term Loss of Primacy (3)
29. Feedback we got so fa (3) • 41% of participants Issuance Cut • 47 % of participants Overloading Ethereum Consensus Ethereum Scenario Crowd Award They are not mutually exclusive!
30. Feedback we got so fa (4) Consensus areas • • • Rollup-centric scalability is essential for Ethereum’s future, with the base layer acting as a settlement layer Institutional adoption is a key growth driver, though it must be managed to avoid centralization risks Balancing decentralization with innovation is critical, especially as Ethereum faces competition from other ecosystems like Solana