阪神タイガース優勝のひみつ - Pythonでシュッと調べた件 / SABRmetrics for Python

Transcript

1. ʮ͓ࢄาʯΛͨ݁͠Ռ
   
   
   ࡕਆλΠΨʔε͕༏উͨ݅͠.
   ࡕਆλΠΨʔε༏উΛه೦ͯ͠PythonͰσʔλ෼ੳͨ͠Β
   

   ࢥΘͣʮͦΒɺͦ͏Αʯͱೲಘͯ͠͠·ͬͨ࿩.
   Shinichi Nakagawa(@shinyorke) 2023/10/01 PyLadies Tokyo 9प೥ه೦ύʔςΟʔ
   

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2. Who am I ?
   
   
   ʢ͓લ୭Α?ʣ
   • Shinichi Nakagawa@shinyorke
   
   
   • େख֎ࢿܥITίϯαϧاۀϚωʔδϟʔ
   
   
   • ຊۀͰ͸SREతͳ࢓ࣄΛ͍ͯ͠·͢.
   
   
   • ΤϯδχΞతʹ͸ԿͰ΋Ͱ͖Δਓ.
   
   
   • ద౰ͳ⽁ωλ͔ΒLTΛ͢ΔΤϯδχΞͷਓ.
   
   
   • ஶ໊ͳٕज़ϒϩάʮLean Baseballʯͷਓ.
   
   
   • ຖ೔10,000าఔ౓ͷʮ͓ࢄาʯ͕೔՝.
   ※͓ࢄาͷূڌ෺݅
   

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3. PyLadies Tokyo 9प೥͓ΊͰͱ͏͍͟͝·͢🎉
   
   
   ʢ9೥΋ܦͬͯ͠·ͬͨͷ͔…ͳ͍ͭʣ
   

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4. ΋͏Ұ͓ͭΊͰ͍ͨࣄ͕
   
   
   ͋Γ·͢ΑͶʁ🐯
   

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5. ࡕਆλΠΨʔε, ηɾϦʔά༏উ͓ΊͰͱ͏͍͟͝·͢🎉
   
   
   2005೥Ҏདྷ18೥ͿΓͷ༏উ🐯
   

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6. 334
   ʲ౾஌ࣝʳ͓ೃછΈͷͪ͜Βͷ਺ࣈ͸18೥લͷ༏উ͕ΩοΧέͰര஀.
   

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7. 18೥ͿΓʹʮ༏উʯΛ
   
   
   Ϳ͔ͪ·ͨ͠ࡕਆλΠΨʔε
   
   
   ݁ہԿ͕ྑ͔ͬͨͷ͔🤔
   

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8. ࡕਆλΠΨʔε༏উͷཧ༝ʢͲΕ΋ਖ਼ղʣ
   1. ໊কʮԬాজ෍ʯ௨শʮͲΜͰΜʯͷ؂ಜ෮ؼ.
   

   →18೥લͷ༏উ΋Ԭా؂ಜ&ʮͦΒɺͦ͏Αʯͱೲಘߦ໊͘ࡃ഑.
   
   
   2. ࣆJAPAN͕༏উͨ͠WBCʹελϝϯڃͷબखΛग़͍ͯ͠ͳ͔ͬͨ.
   

   ࡕਆ͔Β͸த໺ͱ౬ઙͷΈ͔ͭ͞΄Ͳग़৔ճ਺͸ଟ͘ͳ͍.
   
   
   3. ʮ͓ࢄา͸େࣄʯʮ໎ͬͨΒา͚ʯͱ͍͏ҙࣝͷժੜ͑.
   

   ۩ମతʹ͸ʮ࢛ٿʢϑΥΞϘʔϧʣʯΛ୔ࢁબΜͩ.
   

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9. ʮʰ͓ࢄา͸େࣄʱʰ໎ͬͨΒา͚ʱͱ͍͏ҙࣝͷժੜ͑ʯ
   
   
   ͜Ε͕ࡕਆλΠΨʔε༏উͷ΋ͬͱ΋Β͍͠ཧ༝ͩͱσʔλ͸ݴͬͯ·ͨ͠.
   

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10. ࡕਆͷεʔύʔυϥΠͳʮ͓ࢄาʯͷྲّྀ
    • όολʔ͸ࡾৼ͍͍͔ͯ͠Βʮۃ౓ʹ͓ࢄาʯ͠ͳ͍͞.
    
    
    • ϐονϟʔ͸ࡾৼΛऔΒͳ͍͍͔ͯ͘ΒʮࢄาΛࢭΊΖʯ.
    
    
    ͳ͓໺ٿʹ͓͚Δʮ͓ࢄาʯ͸ʮ࢛ٿʢϑΥΞϘʔϧʣʯͷࣄ.
    
    
    ※εϥϯάతʹʮࢄาʯͱಡΜͰ͍·͢ʢʮา͔ͤΔʯͱ͔ݴ͏ʣ.
    

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11. ࡕਆλΠΨʔε͓ࢄาͷྲّྀᶃ
    όολʔ͸ࡾৼͯ͠
    
    
    ͍͍͔Β
    
    
    ʮۃ౓ʹ͓ࢄาʯ
    
    
    ͠ͳ͍͞.
    ࡾৼͯ͠΋͍͍͔Βา͚.
    11
    

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12. ʮ໠ދଧઢʯվΊʮ໠”า”ଧઢʯ
    • 2023೥ͷࡕਆλΠΨʔε, νʔϜͱ࢛ͯ͠ٿͷ਺͕ΊͪΌͪ͘Όଟ͍.
    
    
    • ηɾϦʔάͲ͜Ζ͔ϓϩ໺ٿશମͰ΋ΠέͯΔग़ྥ཰ͷߴ͞.
    
    
    • Ұํ, ࢛ٿΛऔΓʹߦ͘ͷʹ଴ͭͨΊࡾৼ΋૿͍͑ͯΔ.
    

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13. 11ଧ੮ʹ1ճ͓ࢄา͢ΔࡕਆλΠΨʔε͞Μ༏लʢϦʔά1Ґʣ.
    
    
    ࠷ԼҐத೔υϥΰϯζΑΓ1.5ഒͷϖʔεͰʮ͓ࢄาʯΛྔ࢈.
    

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14. Ұํ, ࡾઢͷ਺΋۶ࢦͰ4.5ଧ੮ʹҰ౓ࡾৼ͍ͯ͠ΔʢϦʔάϫʔετʣ.
    
    
    ܭࢉ্ελϝϯͷશଧऀ͕ࢼ߹தʹ1ճ͸ࡾৼ͍ͯ͠Δࣄʹ.
    

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15. 2ͭͷάϥϑΛ͚ͬͭͯ͘ࢄา͢Δॱʹฒ΂ͨϞϊ.
    
    
    ࡕਆૉ੖Β͍͠, Ұํʮྩ࿨ͷถ૽ಈʯͷத೔͞Μ(ry
    

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16. ࡕਆλΠΨʔε͓ࢄาͷྲّྀᶄ
    ϐονϟʔ͸ࡾৼΛ
    
    
    औΒͳ͍͍͔ͯ͘Β
    ʮࢄาΛࢭΊΖʯ.
    ૬खͷଧऀΛྥʹग़͢΂͔Βͣ.
    16
    

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17. ૬खͷʮࢄาʯΛઈରʹࢭΊΔ౤खਞ.
    • 2023೥ͷࡕਆλΠΨʔε, νʔϜͱͯ͠౤खͷ༩࢛ٿ͕গͳ͍.
    
    
    • ༩࢛ٿ͕গͳ͍ = ૬खʹ࢛ٿʢࢄาʣΛ͍ͤͯ͞ͳ͍.
    
    
    • ͦͦ͜͜ࡾৼ΋औΕ͓ͯΓ, ࡕਆ౤खਞͷ༏ल͕͞Θ͔Δ.
    

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18. ༏लͳࡕਆ౤खਞ, ૬खʹ࢛ٿʢࢄาʣΛ࠷΋༩͍͑ͯͳ͍ʢϦʔά1Ґʣ.
    
    
    ૬खଧऀʹ͸ແବͳ࢛ٿΛग़͞ͳ͍ͱ͍͏పఈͨ͠ํ਑.
    

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19. ༏लͳࡕਆ౤खਞ, ૬ख͔Βͦͦ͜͜ࡾৼΛୣ͏໛༷ʢϦʔά4Ґʣ.
    
    
    ࢛ٿ͕ݮΔͱ͍͏͜ͱ͸ࡾৼΛऔΕͳ͍ࣄʹ΋ܨ͕Δ͕ҧͬͯͨ…ੌ͍🐯
    

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20. 2ͭͷάϥϑΛ͚ͬͭͯ͘ࢄาͤ͞ͳ͍ॱʹฒ΂ͨϞϊ.
    
    
    ࡕਆ͕ૉ੖Β͍͕͠, DeNAͷʮࡾৼͨ͘͞ΜऔΔʯʮ࢛ٿগͳ͍ʯ͔͍͍ͬ͜.
    

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21. ???ʮPythonͷ࿩͕ແ͍͡Όͳ͍͔ʁ͍͍͔͛Μʹ͠Ζʯ
    

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22. ࠓ೔ͷσʔλ͸
    
    
    શ෦PythonͰ
    
    
    ͍͍ײ͡ʹ🐍
    େͨ͠ίʔυ͡Όͳ͍ͷͰͥͻਅࣅͯ͠΍ͬͯΈͯ.
    https://gist.github.com/Shinichi-Nakagawa/3ca01932532ba41ceaef94bd722107b9
    NPBͷWebαΠτΛ
    
    
    εΫϨΠϐϯά
    
    
    Google ColabͰ
    
    
    γϡοͱՄࢹԽ.
    

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23. ʲ݁࿦ʳࡕਆλΠΨʔεʮ͓ࢄาʯͷྲّྀ
    • όολʔ͸ࡾৼ͍͍͔ͯ͠Βʮۃ౓ʹ͓ࢄาʯ͠ͳ͍͞.
    
    
    • ϐονϟʔ͸ࡾৼΛऔΒͳ͍͍͔ͯ͘ΒʮࢄาΛࢭΊΖʯ.
    
    
    • ͳ͓, ࢛ٿ͕૿͑Δͱࡾৼ΋૿͑Δʢ܏޲ʣͳͷͰ(ry
    
    
    ͓Θ͔Γ͍͚ͨͩͨͩΖ͏͔?
    

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24. ͝ਗ਼ௌ͋Γ͕ͱ͏͍͟͝·ͨ͠🐯
    

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