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Win ratio その2

Win ratio その2

Win ratioの問題点と、それに対してどのように考えて、使うのか、一つの例を解説しています。

Shuntaro Sato

August 28, 2023
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  1. 8JOSBUJPͦͷ
    ࠤ౻ढ़ଠ࿕
    ௕࡚େֶපӃྟচݚڀηϯλʔ
    TIVOUBSPTBUP!OBHBTBLJVBDKQ
    5XJUUFS!4IVOUBSPPP

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  2. ঺հ͢Δ࿦จ
    2
    ࿦จλΠτϧ
    'BMMBDJFTPG6TJOHUIF8JO3BUJPJO$BSEJPWBTDVMBS5SJBMT
    $IBMMFOHFTBOE4PMVUJPOT
    ஶऀ໊ɺܝࡌδϟʔφϧɺग़൛೥
    &[JNBNBLB"KVGP FUBM +"$$#BTJDUP
    5SBOTMBUJPOBM4DJFODF
    ݚڀσβΠϯ
    ํ๏࿦ʹର͢Δҙݟ࿦จ
    "KVGP&[JNBNBLB /BZBL"EJUJ .FISB.BOEFFQ3'BMMBDJFTPG6TJOHUIF8JO3BUJPJO$BSEJPWBTDVMBS5SJBMT+"$$#BTJDUP5SBOTMBUJPOBM
    4DJFODFr

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  3. 8JOSBUJPͷ͓͞Β͍

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  4. ৄ͘͠͸ͪ͜Β
    4
    ͜ͷεϥΠυΛΈ͍ͯͩ͘͞
    IUUQTTQFBLFSEFDLDPNTIVOUBSPTXJOSBUJPUPIBIFLB

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  5. ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτͷ໰୊఺
    5
    'FSSFJSB(PO[ÂMF[* #VTTF+8 )FFMT"OTEFMM% .POUPSJ7. "LM&" #SZBOU%. FUBM

    1SPCMFNTXJUIVTFPGDPNQPTJUFFOEQPJOUTJODBSEJPWBTDVMBSUSJBMTTZTUFNBUJDSFWJFXPGSBOEPNJTFEDPOUSPMMFEUSJBMT#.+"QS
    ͷ'JHVSF
    ᶃ %FBUI
    ᶄ $SJUJDBM 4USPLF

    ᶅ .BKPS /POGBUBM.*

    ᶆ .PEFSBUF )PTQJUBMJ[BUJPO

    ᶇ .JOPS $IBOHFJOCMPPEQSFTTVSF

    w ॏ঱౓͕ߴ͍ΤϯυϙΠϯτ͸ɺ

    ޮՌ͕খ͍͞
    w ॏ঱౓͕௿͍ΤϯυϙΠϯτ͸ɺ

    ޮՌ͕େ͖͍
    w ॏ঱౓͕௿͍ΤϯυϙΠϯτ͸ߴ͍ΤϯυϙΠϯτΑΓɺΠϕϯτΛൃੜ͠΍͍͢
    w ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτ͸ɺUJNFUP
    fi
    STUFWFOUͷ৘ใΛ༻͍Δ
    ॏ঱౓͕ߴ͍ΤϯυϙΠϯτͷ৽نͷ࣏ྍޮՌΛద੾ʹධՁͰ͖͍ͯͳ͍͔΋͠Εͳ͍
    ৽ن࣏ྍ͸ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτͷൃੜස౓Λม͑ͨ
    ϛεϦʔσΟϯά

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  6. ΞϧΰϦζϜɹᶃϖΞΛ࡞Δ
    6
    5IFNBUDIFEQBJSTBQQSPBDI 5IFVONBUDIFEQBJSTBQQSPBDI
    3JTLTDPSF



    ಉ͡ϦεΫΛ࣋ͭਓಉ࢜ΛϖΞʹ͢Δ
    ࣏ྍ܈ ରর܈
    w ϞσϧʹΑΓɺҰਓҰਓͷ3JTLTDPSFΛܭࢉ͢Δඞཁ
    w ݪஶ࿦จͰ͸નΊΒΕ͍͕ͯͨ
    w ࣮༻తͰͳ͍ͱɺஶऀΒࣗ਎΋೥ޙͷ࿦จͰݴٴ
    3FEGPST# (SFHTPO+ $SPXMFZ" .D"OESFX5 #FO:FIVEB0 4UPOF(8 FUBM5IF
    XJOSBUJPBQQSPBDIGPSDPNQPTJUFFOEQPJOUTQSBDUJDBMHVJEBODFCBTFEPOQSFWJPVT
    FYQFSJFODF&VS)FBSU+%FD
    r
    ͢΂ͯͷ૊Έ߹ΘͤΛϖΞʹ͢Δ
    ࣏ྍ܈ /5
    ରর܈ /$

    w 3JTLTDPSF͸ෆཁ
    w ݩͷϦεΫ͕ۃ୺ʹ཭Ε͍ͯΔਓಉ࢜ΛϖΞʹ
    ͍ͯ͠Δ
    w ࣮༻త
    ϖΞͷ਺
    /5º/$

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  7. ΞϧΰϦζϜɹᶄ༏ઌॱҐΛܾΊΔ
    7
    3FEGPST# (SFHTPO+ $SPXMFZ" .D"OESFX5 #FO:FIVEB0 4UPOF(8 FUBM5IFXJOSBUJPBQQSPBDIGPSDPNQPTJUFFOEQPJOUTQSBDUJDBM
    HVJEBODFCBTFEPOQSFWJPVTFYQFSJFODF&VS)FBSU+%FD
    rͷ5BCMF

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  8. ΞϧΰϦζϜɹᶅᶆ࣏ྍ܈ͷ8JO -PTF 5JFͷ൑ఆ
    8
    ྫɿ$7EFBUI)PTQJUBMJ[BUJPOͰߏ੒͞Εͨෳ߹Ξ΢τΧϜ

    $7EFBUIͰ࣏ྍ܈ͷ8JO͕ܾ·Δύλʔϯ
    ଧͪ੾Γ
    ࣏ྍ
    ରর
    ࣏ྍ
    ରর
    ࣏ྍ
    ରর
    ࣏ྍ͸ରরΑΓ΋ૣ͘
    )PTQJUBMJ[BUJPOΛى͍ͯ͜͠Δ͕ɺ
    ༏ઌॱҐ͕ߴ͍$7EFBUIΛධՁͯ͠
    ͍ΔͨΊແࢹ
    w ͲͪΒ΋$7EFBUIΛى͍ͯ͜͠ͳ͍৔߹ɺ

    ੜଘظ͕ؒશ͘ಉ͡৔߹ɺ
    )PTQJUBMJ[BUJPOͷධՁ΁
    w ؍࡯ظؒΛ୹͍ํʹͦΖ͑ͨͱ͖ʹɺͦͷ࣌఺ʹ$7EFBUIΛ
    ى͍ͯ͜͠ͳ͚Ε͹ɺ
    )PTQJUBMJ[BUJPOͷධՁ΁
    ࣏ྍ
    ରর ଧͪ੾Γ

    )PTQJUBMJ[BUJPOͰ࣏ྍ܈ͷ8JO͕ܾ·Δύλʔϯ
    ଧͪ੾Γ
    ࣏ྍ
    ରর
    ࣏ྍ
    ରর
    ࣏ྍ
    ରর
    ࣏ྍ܈͸$7EFBUIΛى͍ͯ͜͠Δ͕ɺ

    ؍࡯ظؒΛͦΖ͑ͨ৔߹ɺ

    Ҿ͖෼͚ʹͳΓɺ
    Ͱ൑ఆ͢Δύλʔϯ
    w ͲͪΒ΋)PTQJUBMJ[BJPOΛى͍ͯ͜͠ͳ͍৔߹ɺ

    ൃੜظ͕ؒશ͘ಉ͡৔߹ɺ5JFʢҾ͖෼͚ʣ൑ఆ
    w ؍࡯ظؒΛ୹͍ํʹͦΖ͑ͨͱ͖ʹɺͦͷ࣌఺ʹ
    )PTQJUBMJ[BUJPOΛى͍ͯ͜͠ͳ͚Ε͹ɺ5JFʢҾ͖෼͚ʣ൑ఆ
    ࣏ྍ
    ରর
    1PDPDL4+ "SJUJ$" $PMMJFS5+ 8BOH%5IFXJOSBUJPBOFXBQQSPBDIUPUIFBOBMZTJTPGDPNQPTJUFFOEQPJOUTJODMJOJDBMUSJBMTCBTFEPODMJOJDBMQSJPSJUJFT&VS)FBSU+
    +BO
    rͷ'JHVSFΛࢀߟ

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  9. ΞϧΰϦζϜɹᶇ8JOSBUJPͷܭࢉ
    9
    ࣏ྍ܈ /5
    ରর܈ /$

    ਓ ਓ
    300 × 312 = 94224 ϖΞ
    5JFT
    /
    8JOT
    /8
    -PTTFT
    /-
    5JFT
    /
    8JOT
    /8
    -PTTFT
    /-

    $7EFBUI

    )PTQJUBMJ[BUJPO
    5PUBMXJOT 5PUBMMPTTFT
    27060 + 15270 = 42330 18532 + 7745 = 26277
    8JOSBUJP
    5PUBMXJOT
    5PUBMMPTTFT



    $*UP 1
    3FEGPST# (SFHTPO+ $SPXMFZ" .D"OESFX5 #FO:FIVEB0 4UPOF(8 FUBM5IFXJOSBUJPBQQSPBDIGPSDPNQPTJUFFOEQPJOUTQSBDUJDBMHVJEBODFCBTFEPOQSFWJPVTFYQFSJFODF
    &VS)FBSU+%FD
    rͷ'JHVSFΛࢀߟ

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  10. ॥؀ثܥͷࢼݧʹ͓͚Δ
    8JOSBUJP࢖༻ʹؔ͢Δޡղͱରࡦ

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  11. ޡղᶃɿ8JOSBUJP͸ɺ૯߹తͳ࣏ྍޮՌΛද͢)3ͷΑ͏ʹղऍͰ͖Δ
    11
    Ҿ͖෼͚ϖΞΛ࢖Θͳ͍ˠඪతूஂ͕มΘΔ
    ඪతूஂ
    ແࢹ
    ղऍ
    $PYൺྫϋβʔυϞσϧ
    )3͕ͷ৔߹ɺ

    ඪతूஂʹ͓͍ͯɺରর܈ͱൺֱͯ͠

    ࣏ྍ܈ͷΠϕϯτൃੜ཰͕ݮগͨ͠

    ͜ͱΛࣔ͢
    8JOSBUJP
    83͕ͷ৔߹ɺҾ͖෼͚ͷϖΞ͸ແࢹ͞
    Εͨɺ୯७ʹউ͔ͭෛ͚Δ͔ʹ෼ผͰ͖Δɺ
    ΑΓখ͞ͳαϒάϧʔϓͷதͰɺ

    ࣏ྍ܈ͷউͭ֬཰͕ෛ͚Δ֬཰ΑΓେ͖
    ͍͜ͱΛࣔ͢

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  12. ޡղᶄɿউͭ͜ͱ͸ɺ͢ͳΘͪྟচతʹ༗ҙٛͰ͋Δ͜ͱΛࣔ͢
    12
    "KVGP&[JNBNBLB /BZBL"EJUJ .FISB.BOEFFQ3'BMMBDJFTPG6TJOHUIF8JO3BUJPJO$BSEJPWBTDVMBS5SJBMT+"$$#BTJDUP5SBOTMBUJPOBM4DJFODFrͷਤΑΓ
    ࣏ྍޮՌʹ

    Ұ؏ੑ͕͋Δ͔ʁ
    ॏཁͳΠϕϯτͰ͸͕ࠩ
    ͔ͭͣɺൺֱతྟচతʹ
    ҙຯͷऑ͍߲໨Ͱ͕ࠩͭ
    ͍ͯͳ͍͔ʁ
    ࣏ྍ
    ରর
    ࣏ྍ
    ରর
    ࣏ྍ
    ରর
    w Πϕϯτͷൃੜස౓͸ಉ਺
    w ൃੜ೔͕Θ͔ͣʹ୹͍͚ͩ
    w 8JOSBUJP͸࣏ྍ͕উͭ͜ͱΛࣔ͢
    ͜ΕͰ͍͍ͷ͔ʁ
    ঱ީੑॏ঱ࡾઑหด࠯ෆશ঱ʹର͢ΔܦΧςʔςϧతFEHFUPFEHFम෮ज़ͱༀ෺ྍ๏ͷӨڹΛධՁͨ͠53*-6.*/"5&ࢼݧ

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  13. ޡղᶅɿױऀใࠂΞ΢τΧϜ͸ɺ83ʹ͓͍ͯద੾ʹධՁͰ͖͍ͯΔ
    13
    "KVGP&[JNBNBLB /BZBL"EJUJ .FISB.BOEFFQ3'BMMBDJFTPG6TJOHUIF8JO3BUJPJO$BSEJPWBTDVMBS5SJBMT+"$$#BTJDUP5SBOTMBUJPOBM
    4DJFODFrͷਤ
    w 20-Ͱେ͖ͳ͕͍͍ࠩͭͯΔ
    w ໡ݕԽͰ͖͍ͯͳ͍
    20-ͷࠩ͸ɺ࣏ྍޮՌʁ

    ࣏ྍͨ͜͠ͱʹΑΔޮՌʁ
    ঱ީੑॏ঱ࡾઑหด࠯ෆશ঱ʹର͢ΔܦΧςʔςϧతFEHFUPFEHFम෮ज़ͱༀ෺ྍ๏ͷӨڹΛධՁͨ͠53*-6.*/"5&ࢼݧ
    w ໡ݕԽ͢Δ
    w ϓϥηϘʢTIBNʣΛ࢖͏

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  14. ޡղᶆɿ֤ϖΞͷϦεΫϓϩϑΝΠϧ͸όϥϯεͱΕ͍ͯΔ
    14
    5IFVONBUDIFEQBJSTBQQSPBDI
    ͢΂ͯͷ૊Έ߹ΘͤΛϖΞʹ͢Δ
    ࣏ྍ܈ /5
    ରর܈ /$

    ϖΞͷ਺
    /5º/$
    ࡀͷঁੑͱࡀͷஉੑͱ͍ͬͨϖΞ΋Ͱ͖Δ

    ɹˠϦεΫ͸ҧ͏
    4USBUJ
    fi
    FE8JOSBUJPBQQSPBDI
    ط஌ͷϦεΫҼࢠͰ૚Λ࡞Γɺ

    ͦͷதͰVONBUDIFEQBJSTBQQSPBDIΛ͓͜ͳ͏
    ࣬ױײडੑҨ఻ࢠ͋ΓʢHʣ
    ࣬ױײडੑҨ఻ࢠͳ͠ʢHʣ
    83H
    83H
    TUSBUJ
    fi
    FE83

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  15. ޡղᶇɿҾ͖෼͚͸݁࿦ʹӨڹ͠ͳ͍
    15
    Ҿ͖෼͚Λແࢹ͢Δͱɺ࣏ྍޮՌͷաେධՁʹͭͳ͕Δ
    8JOPEETʢҾ͖෼͚΋ߟྀ͢Δʣ
    8JOTJOUSFBUNFUHSPVQ + 1/2PGBMMUJFT
    -PTTFTJOUSFBUNFUHSPVQ + 1/2PGBMMUJFT
    "KVGP&[JNBNBLB /BZBL"EJUJ .FISB.BOEFFQ3'BMMBDJFTPG6TJOHUIF8JO3BUJPJO$BSEJPWBTDVMBS5SJBMT+"$$#BTJDUP5SBOTMBUJPOBM
    4DJFODFrͷද

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  16. ྟচࢼݧʹ͓͍ͯ8JOSBUJP͸ɺͲͷΑ͏ʹղऍ͢΂͖͔ʁ
    16
    "KVGP&[JNBNBLB /BZBL"EJUJ .FISB.BOEFFQ3'BMMBDJFTPG6TJOHUIF8JO3BUJPJO$BSEJPWBTDVMBS5SJBMT+"$$#BTJDUP5SBOTMBUJPOBM
    4DJFODFrͷਤΛҰ෦೔ຊޠԽ
    8JOSBUJP͸ɺࢲͨͪʹԿΛڭ͑ͯ͘ΕΔ͔ʁ
    w Ҿ͖෼͚͕ͳ͍ϖΞʹ͓͍ͯɺ5&&3࣏ྍ܈ͷ֬཰͸
    ߴ͍
    Ҿ͖෼͚Λແࢹ͢Δ͜ͱ͸ɺͲͷΑ͏ͳ݁࿦Λಋ͔͘ʁ
    w Ҿ͖෼͚ϖΞ͸Ͱ͋Δɻ͜ΕΒΛແࢹ͢Δ͜ͱ
    ͸ޮՌͷେ͖͞ͷա৒ਪఆʹͭͳ͕Δ
    ͲͷΤϯυϙΠϯτ͕༗ҙͳ8JOSBUJPʹد༩͔ͨ͠ʁ
    w ࣏ྍޮՌ͸ɺױऀใࠂΞ΢τΧϜʢ,$$2TDPSFʣʹ
    ΑͬͯͷΈઆ໌͞ΕΔ
    ͜ͷݚڀ͸ͲͷΑ͏ʹղऍ͢΂͖͔ʁ
    w ͜ͷඇ໡ݕࢼݧͷ5&&3͕উͬͨͱ͍͏݁Ռ͸ɺ

    ϋʔυΤϯυϙΠϯτͰ͸ͳ͘ɺױऀใࠂΞ΢τΧϜ
    ͷ݁ՌͷΈʹجͮ͘΋ͷͰ͋Δ
    w ૯߹తͳΤϏσϯεͷղऍʹ͸ɺϓϥηϘޮՌͷཱূ
    ΋ඞཁͰ͋Δ

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  17. 8JOSBUJPͷ՝୊ʹର͢Δղܾ๏
    17
    "KVGP&[JNBNBLB /BZBL"EJUJ .FISB.BOEFFQ3'BMMBDJFTPG6TJOHUIF8JO3BUJPJO$BSEJPWBTDVMBS5SJBMT+"$$#BTJDUP5SBOTMBUJPOBM
    4DJFODFrͷ$FOUSBM*MMVTUSBUJPOΛҰ෦೔ຊޠԽ
    8JOPEETͰҾ͖෼͚Λߟྀ
    Ҿ͖෼͚਺͕͘͝গ਺Ͱ͋Δͱ͖Λআ͍ͯɺৗʹ
    ʮ8JOPEETʯΛܭࢉ͢Δ
    ඪ४తͳίϯηϯαεͷ։ൃ
    ෳ਺ͷεςʔΫϗϧμʔʹΑΔɺෳ߹Τ
    ϯυϙΠϯτͷߏ੒ཁૉɺ༏ઌॱҐɺଌ
    ఆఆٛɺ࣌ؒґଘੑͷҙຯʹؔ͢ΔΨΠ
    υϥΠϯΛ࡞Δ
    ม਺ͷΞϯόϥϯεʹରͯ͠૚ผղੳ
    ϦεΫҼࢠͷόϥϯε͕ͱΕ͍ͯͳ͍

    ࢼݧ΍ඇϥϯμϜԽࢼݧͷ৔߹ɺ

    ૚ผ8JOSBUJP๏Λਪ঑͢Δ
    ױऀใࠂΞ΢τΧϜ·ͨ͸

    ػೳతΞ΢τΧϜͷͨΊʹ໡ݕԽ
    ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτʹɺ130΍ػೳతΞ
    ΢τΧϜΛؚΉࢼݧ͸ɺϓϥηϘ·ͨ͸
    TIBNΛରরʹ͢΂͖
    ֤ߏ੒ཁૉͷ෼ੳ݁ՌͷใࠂΛٛ຿Խ
    w ֤ཁૉͷXJOSBUJPΛܭࢉ
    w ϋʔυΤϯυϙΠϯτʹରͯ࣌ؒ͠Λར༻
    ͨ͠ղੳ
    w /VNCFSOFFEFEUPUSFBUPSIBSN΋ਪఆ
    ྟচతՁ஋ͱܦࡁతՁ஋Λ૊ΈࠐΉ
    ཧ૝తʹ͸ɺඅ༻ରޮՌධՁ෼ੳΛ͓͜ͳ͏

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