now – a published worst case scenario Austria 13,000 Latvia 13,800 Netherlands 23,100 Belgium 14,900 Lithuania 18,800 Poland 155,200 Bulgaria 47,100 Germany 116,400 Portugal 25,100 Czech Rep 34,100 Greece 27,400 Romania 149,900 Cyprus 1, 900 Hungary 37,700 Slovenia 5,000 Denmark 7,300 Ireland 6,700 Slovakia 20,600 Estonia 6,100 Italy 95,200 Spain 87,100 Finland 8,100 Luxembourg 500 Sweden 13,300 France 89,600 Malta 1,100 UK 93,000 Iceland 420 Norway 5,800 EU total: 1.1 million (computer simulation) Murray CJL, Lopez AD, Chin B, Feehan D, Hill KH. Estimation of potential global pandemic influenza mortality on the basis of vital registry data from the 1918–20 pandemic: a quantitative analysis. Lancet. 2006;368: 2211-2218.