ͱςετσʔλ ಠཱͳͷͰɼ ͕ͨͬͯ͠ɼ༧ଌ ͷ ͱՁͰ͋Δɽ ϕΠζͷఆཧΑΓɼ ͱͳΔɽ྆ลΛରม͢Δͱɼ ͱͳΔɽ (4), (5), (6) p(y* |x* , X, Y) = p(y* , x* , X, Y) p(x* , X, Y) {X, Y} {x* , y* } p(y* |x* , X, Y) = p(y* , x* )p(X, Y) p(x* )p(X, Y) = p(y* , x* ) p(x* ) = p(y* |x* ) y* p(y* |x* ) p(w|y* , x* ) = p(w)p(y* , x* |w) p(y* , x* ) = p(w)p(y* |x* , w)p(x* ) p(y* |x* )p(x* ) = p(w)p(y* |x* , w) p(y* |x* ) ⇔ p(y* |x* ) = p(w)p(y* |x* , w) p(w|y* , x* ) ∝ p(y* |x* , w) p(w|y* , x* ) log p(y* |x* ) = log p(y* |x* , w) − log p(w|y* , x* )