reaction is often disbelief . . . The idea you should focus on, however, is that disbelief is not an option. The results are not made up, nor are they statistical flukes. You have no choice but to accept that the major conclusions of these studies are true. “ ” Daniel Kahneman Source: Thinking, Fast and Slow (page 57)
replication effect size, 1a for Cohen’s d estimates, 1b for partial eta-squared estimates. When available, the triangle indicates the effect size obtained in the original study (Elaboration Likelihood main effect estimate does not appear because it was extremely large, partial-eta square of .59). Large circles represent the aggregate effect size obtained across all participants. Error bars represent 99% noncentral confidence intervals around the effects. Small x’s represent the effect sizes obtained within each site. Stroop effect Metaphoric restructuring Availability heuristic Persistence Standardized treatment difference Power & perspective Weight embodiment Warmth perceptions original studies replications Many Labs 3: https://osf.io/ct89g/ Disbelief remains an option:
People Solve Math Problems. Figure 2. The effect of disfluent font on Cognitive Reflection Test scores. Th each individual study’s sample size against its effect size. Error bars are bootstra DISFLUENT FONT AND ANALYTIC REASON Original study (N=40)
harm of treatment by year of publication for large NHLBI trials on pharmaceutical and dietary supplement interventions. Positive trials are indicated by the plus signs while trials showing harm are indicated by a diagonal line within a circle. Prior to 2000 when trials were not registered in clinical trials.gov, there was substantial variability in outcome. Following the imposition of the requirement that trials preregister in clinical trials.gov the relative risk on primary outcomes showed considerably less variability around 1.0. Null Trials and Transparent Reporting
over Time Replication Failures Fig 1. Relative risk of showing benefit or harm of treatment by year of publication for large NHLBI trials on pharmaceutical and dietary supplement interventions. Positive trials are indicated by the plus signs while trials showing harm are indicated by a diagonal line within a circle. Prior to 2000 when trials were not registered in clinical trials.gov, there was substantial variability in outcome. Following the imposition of the requirement that trials preregister in clinical trials.gov the relative risk on primary outcomes showed considerably less variability around 1.0. Null Trials and Transparent Reporting
the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue. Afflicted by studies with small sample sizes, tiny effects, invalid exploratory analyses, and flagrant conflicts of interest, together with an obsession for pursuing fashionable trends of dubious importance, science has taken a turn towards darkness. “ ” Richard Horton 11 April 2015 issue of The Lancet
quantitative work • Quantitative Anthropology not psychology/economics/ medicine • “Replication” makes less sense as target • Willingness to publish negative results • Still serious problems: • Deficit of clear analysis plans, poor data management, poor reproducibility, data ethics in conflict with data openness, typically poor training in quantitative methods, causal salad
The EARS Team Bret Beheim Principal Investigator Riana Minocher Student Principal Investigator Claudia Bavero Research Assistant Silke Atmaca Research Coordinator Protocol preregistration: https://github.com/rianaminocher/ears/ Anne Büchner Student Assistant Kristina Kunze Student Assistant Leonie Ette Student Assistant Anne Hellmund Student Assistant
is no code, scripting or paper data still in existence...this does NOT mean that the results are in any way invalid. I do not agree with the focus of your project “ looking at studies done even just a few years ago (i.e. published 2015 or earlier) is completely counter-productive “ I don't see the point here really. “
initial thought was to say that this has been far too long – this study was conducted almost 20 years ago. But I had a quick look and amazingly I managed to find the data. Your project will be a good opportunity for me to put my folders in order and to make this material available. “ this sounds like a very worthwhile endeavor that is much needed in evolutionary anthropology “ I'm taking this occasion as a starting point for making my scripts more comprehensive, thank you. “
Many easy places to establish better norms “My god, that was 17 years ago. I have no idea where that data is. such studies often uses expertise from several people, and make multiple intermediate versions of the datasets. This is often done without really knowing what will end up in a paper and what will not, or even what the paper will be about “ Exploration great, but can’t pretend it is hypothesis test — data-dependent- hypotheses
Data Tsarina: Dr Silke Atmaca • Audit-able conversion trails: Raw notes to “data” • Persistent meta-data: Materials, data types, research context Meta-data is meaning • Machine-neutral data storage formats • Data security & persistence
access & preservation • Participant & collaborator protection • Example: Minor marriage • Flash point: Safest thing from researcher perspective not best from public perspective • Claim: Huge benefits from limited openness
sustainable without incentives • Researchers: Sharing data & credit costly • Communities have a stake • Public suspicious of self-regulated community • Regulatory capture
theoretical justification, shared in public, design for measurement problems • Samples: Error-checking, scripted coding, scripted assembly, persistent links to raw • Analysis: Developed in stages, tested on simulated data, checked for sensitivity • Documentation: Everything bound together in R package — this was more work than writing the paper