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エクスポネンシャル・テクノロジーと未来 / exponential technologies ...
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Sho Okiyama
October 11, 2017
Technology
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エクスポネンシャル・テクノロジーと未来 / exponential technologies and the future
2017.10.11 日経ビジネススクール テクノロジーインパクト2030
for more info:
http://okiyamasho.com
Sho Okiyama
October 11, 2017
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Transcript
ΤΫεϙωϯγϟϧɾ ςΫϊϩδʔͱະདྷ 2017.10.11 ԭࢁ ᠳ ܦςΫϊϩδʔΠϯύΫτ2030
“21ੈلͷऴΘΓ·ͰʹશͯͷපؾΛ ࣏ྍ͠ɺ༧͠ɺ͋ΒΏΔපؾʹ ରԠͰ͖ΔΑ͏ʹ͍ͨ͠” –– ϚʔΫɾβοΧʔόʔά CC BY SA, Alessio Jacona,
flickr
“2030ɺ͋Δ͍͘ͱ 2030ͷऴΘΓ·Ͱʹɺ ਓྨશͯͷපؾΛ Γӽ͑ΒΕΔͩΖ͏” –– ϨΠɾΧʔπϫΠϧ TED, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVXQUItNEDQ
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% ༧ఆ ࣮ࡍ ςΫϊϩδʔͷਐาࢦؔత 1997
ήϊϜͷղಡୡ1% ଟ͕͘ܭըதࢭΛओு ͔͠͠ʮ 1% ऴΘͬͨͷͳΒɺ͏ऴΘͬͨʹ͍͠ʯ ώτήϊϜܭը ਐḿ ʢ60ԯUSD/15ϲʣ 1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% ༧ఆ ࣮ࡍ ςΫϊϩδʔͷਐาࢦؔత 1997
ήϊϜͷղಡୡ1% ଟ͕͘ܭըதࢭΛओு ͔͠͠ʮ 1% ऴΘͬͨͷͳΒɺ͏ऴΘͬͨʹ͍͠ʯ ώτήϊϜܭը ਐḿ ʢ60ԯUSD/15ϲʣ
اۀͷฏۉण໋ “10ޙʹ Fortune 500اۀͷ40% ͕ɺଘࡏ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ͩΖ͏” Babson Olin School of Business,
Fast Company (2011) S&P 500ࡏ੶ظؒ େ͖͘ݮগ 67 15 ࢈ۀߏͷมԽͱɺ ϓϨΠϠʔͷೖΕସΘΓ 0 20 40 60 80 1920 ࠓ
࢈ۀߏͷมԽ ࣌Ձ૯ֹɿ$28B ैۀһɿ14ສਓ 1996 2012 2012 ࣌Ձ૯ֹɿ$1B ैۀһɿ13ਓ ܦӦഁ
ਓೳ (AI)
ͳ͍ͥ·AIͳͷ͔ ΫϥυԽʹΑΔେྔͷσʔλ େྔͷσʔλ ϋʔυΣΞͷਐԽ Ωϟονʔͳࣄྫ GPUʹΑΔฒྻॲཧɺܭࢉͷ্ PepperɺΞϧϑΝޟ ੈ͔ؒΒͷظײ
AIͷϨΠϠʔ ਓೳͱݺΕͳ͘ͳͬͨͷ ਓೳ ػցֶश σΟʔϓϥʔχϯά ϧʔϧϕʔευ l AlphaGo l ը૾ೝࣝ
l AI in the 1980’s l ࣗಈυΞ l ϧϯό l ʮAͳΒBʯ l MS OfficeͷΠϧΧ ൚༻ਓೳʁ ݱঢ়ͷ Ԇઢ্ʹͳ͍
σΟʔϓϥʔχϯά ͜Ε·Ͱ ཱ͕ࣖͬͯͯ… ͕2ͭ͋ͬͯ… ඓࡾ֯Ͱ… ͦͷԼʹޱ͕… ͯ͢ਓ͕ڭ͍͑ͯͨ - ώή͋Δͷʁͳ͍ͷʁ -
ޱԿݸʁ - ͋Εʁ͜Εʁ ԿΛͲ͜·Ͱڭ͑Δ͖͔ෆ໌ ݱࡏ ػց͕উखʹڞ௨Λֶश - ࣅͨࣸਅ͝ͱʹ͚ͱ͍ͯʂ - ͋ɺ͜ͷࢁ͕ʮωίʯͶɻ αϯϓϧ͕૿͑Εݸମࠩٵऩɺ ฏۉ͢ΔͱʮೣΒ͠͞ʯ͕Δ
ʦᗡྨʧ τΧήͱͶɺϫχͱ ΧϝͱΠϞϦͱ… αϯϓϧ͑͞༩͑Εɺ ʮᗡྨͱ͍͏֓೦ʯͷநग़ AIͤͰOK ʮಛྔʯͱ ʦԁʧ ͋Δ͔Βͷڑ͕ ͍͠ͷू߹
ఆٛͰ͖Δͷѻ͑Δ ͜Ε·Ͱ σΟʔϓϥʔχϯά ʦᗡྨʧ ͑ʔɺมԹಈͰ ͕4ຊ͋ͬͯ… ੑ࣭ྻڍͷΈͰѻ͑ͳ͍ ఆٛͮ͠Β͍நతͳ֓೦ ੑ࣭ͷ··ʢ=ಛྔʣѻ͑Δ
ಛྔͷԋࢉ ֆͷ୯७ͳ߹Ͱͳ͘ɺ “ΰοϗΒ͠͞” ͱ͍͏ ಛྔͷऔΓѻ͍͕Մೳʹ + https://deepart.io/ ݩֆ ը෩
͋ΒΏΔཁૉͷύϥϝʔλԽ “ϨϯϒϥϯτΒ͠͞” Λ AI ͕ҼղɻͦΕʹ ԊͬͯΠϝʔδ߹ Ϩϯϒϥϯτͷ৽࡞ (Microsoft, 2016.04) ߏਤ
৭ චѹ http://www.adweek.com/, “Inside ‘The Next Rembrandt’ ”
“Synthesizing Obama: Learning Lip Sync from Audio” https://youtu.be/9Yq67CjDqvw ʢಈըʣ
AIͷͨΒ͢Ձ ϦεχϯάͷೳྗਓؒΛ্ճΔ ೝࣝɿจষɺԻɺը૾ɺಈը ༧ଌɿ͓͢͢Ίɺ༧ଌ ࠷దԽɿғޟɺࣗಈӡసͳͲ աڈͷ͔Β౷ܭਪ ࠷ળखΛબͿ
- τϨʔμʔ৬ AI ʹͦͷҐΛৡͬͨ - ΞφϦετϨϙʔτͷʮߦؒΛಡΉྗʯਓؒҎ্ - Ӵࣸਅͷղੳɿறंͷར༻ɺ࡞ͷഓঢ়گ͔Β ࢿஅ τϨʔμʔͷɿ600ਓ
→ 2ਓ NYΦϑΟεʹ200ਓͷAI։ൃऀ ਓ͕ؒར׆༻Ͱ͖ͳ͍σʔλͰ͕ࠩͭ͘ Ϧλʔϯ30લͷ2-5ഒ http://www.goldmansachs.com/
ϩϘοτ
ϩϘοτͷͨΒ͢Ձ ࣗಈԽ ӡಈɾײ֮ೳྗͷ֦ு - ޮԽͱ࠶ݱੑ্ - ਓؒ༗ࣄͷରԠʹ - ਫ਼ͱࣗ༝ͷߴ͍ಈ͖ -
ޒײͷೳྗ૿ڧ - ൪Ҏ߱ͷײ֮֫ಘ ૢॎࣜͱࣗࣜͰҟͳΔ༻్
- ମྗ૿ڧɿ࠲ͬͯखज़Ͱ͖Δ + ΞʔϜϨετ - ࢹྗ૿ڧɿ3Dࢹڸ + ζʔϜࢹ 15ഒ -
ख͕3ຊʹɿ3ຊͷΞʔϜΛ1ਓͰૢΕΔ - ؔઅػೳ૿ڧɿؔઅՄಈҬ360 - ਆܦɺ ےػೳ૿ڧɿࣗಈखͿΕิਖ਼ - খػೳ૿ڧɿϞʔγϣϯεέʔϧʢ1:5ʣ μɾϰΟϯνʢૢॎࣜϩϘοτʣ ಓ۩Λ͑ͨɺਓؒͷೳྗ૿ڧσόΠε https://www.intuitivesurgical.com/
- ࣗಈֶशɿ͡ΊʹखΛऔͬͯ ՝Λڭ͑Δͱ͔࣍Βࣗ - ൚༻ੑɿϓϩάϥϛϯάෆཁͰ ଟ༻్ - 2.5ສυϧ/ମɿ࣌څ300ԁ/365 ฏۉࢿճऩظؒ <
1 όΫελʔʢࣗࣜϩϘοτʣ ײతʹڭҭͰ͖ΔࣗϩϘοτ ۀͷίετߏ͕มԽ http://www.rethinkrobotics.com/
“The World's First Robotic Kitchen - TV Commercial” https://youtu.be/BSBTCOEdLkA ʢಈըʣ
ϩϘοτͷԠ༻Մೳੑ ਓతϦιʔεͷସ ઐٕज़ͷίϞσΟςΟԽʢӡಈೳྗ֦ுʣ ಈ࡞ʹػցͷϑΟϧλΛ௨͢͜ͱͰɺ ࠶ݱੑ៛ੑ্͕ ࣗಈԽʹΑΔίετݮ ϩϘοτͷϢʔςΟϦςΟԽਐΉ ࣄલใྔͷ૿Ճʢ֮ೳྗ֦ுʣ ޒײ͕ਂ·ΓɺԹ࣓ͳͲ ୈײɺୈࣣײΛ࡞ۀʹө
ਓؒͷ ෳ + ೳྗڞ༗ + ೳྗ֦ு
ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλ
ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλͱ ʮैདྷͷίϯϐϡʔλͷ1ԯഒ͍ʯ – Google ैདྷͷίϯϐϡʔλͰ ղ͖ಘͳ͍͕ղ͚Δ ʮ21ੈلޙͰ…ʯ ۙ5Ͱେ͖ͳਐలɻݚڀ͔Β༻ԽϑΣʔζ
ίϯϐϡʔλͷछྨ ݹయత ίϯϐϡʔλ ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλ (QC: Quantum Computer) ήʔτํࣜQC ΠδϯάϚγϯํࣜQC -
ΞχʔϦϯάܕ - ϨʔβʔωοτϫʔΫܕ ͦͷଞͷ “ίϯϐϡʔλ” DNAίϯϐϡʔλ ೪ەίϯϐϡʔλ εύήςΟίϯϐϡʔλ etc. ݱࡏͷίϯϐϡʔλ σδλϧίϯϐϡʔλ Ξφϩάίϯϐϡʔλ
ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλͷछྨ ήʔτํࣜ ΠδϯάϚγϯํࣜ - ࠓͷίϯϐϡʔλͱࠜຊతʹ֓೦͕ҟͳΔɺཧγϛϡϨʔλ - ༻్ݶΒΕΔ͕͜ͷܕͷΈʹղ͚Δ͕ଘࡏʢ࠷దԽʣ - D-WaveࣾΑΓ2011ʹൃച։࢝ -
ࠓͷίϯϐϡʔλͷສഒૣ্͍Ґޓʢཧ্ʣ - ϋʔυখϏοτͷϓϩτλΠϓͷΈଘࡏ - ιϑτ·ͩ·ͩݚڀஈ֊ͰΞϧΰϦζϜछྨগͳ͍
ྔࢠͷੑ࣭ ཻࢠͰ͋ΓɺͰ͋Δ ཻࢠɿͲͪΒ͔ҰํΛ௨Δ ɿಉ࣌ʹ྆ํΛ௨Δ
ඇྔࢠͱྔࢠ 1 0 1 0 τϥϯδελʢ=εΠονʣ ήʔτํࣜ ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλ Ұʹ 24
= 16௨ΓΛಉ࣌ॲཧ ʢNྔࢠϏοτͳΒ 2N ௨Γʣ 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 ैདྷͷίϯϐϡʔλ - 4ϏοτͰ “1101” Λද͍ͯ͠Δ - ҰʹҰ௨Γͣͭॲཧ ྔࢠͷฒߦॲཧੑ ʢ=͍ʣ Λར༻ͨ͠ͷ͕ήʔτํࣜQC
ήʔτํࣜ ΠδϯάϚγϯํࣜ ͏Ұͭͷํࣜ
͍͍ͯΔ ࠷దԽ ༩͑ΒΕͨ݅ͰඪΛ࠷খԽ͢Δ ८ճηʔϧεϚϯ NΫΠʔϯ ˒ ˒ ˒ ˒ ˒
˒ ˒ ˒ ˔ ˔ ˔ ˔ ˔ ˔ ˔ Ұචॻ͖ͷ૯ڑΛ࠷খԽ͢Δ NʷN֨ࢠʹνΣεͷΫΠʔϯΛNݸฒɺ ܦ࿏্ͷॏෳΛ࠷খԽ͢Δʢແ͘͢ʣ
ͷΞϓϩʔνʢΞχʔϦϯάܕʣ ͖Ε͍ʹຒΊͳ͍͞ ʮ༨ന͕θϩʹۙͮ͘Α͏ɺஔΛ࠷దԽʯ ༨ന͕ଟ͍ͱෆ҆ఆʹͳΔྔࢠϞσϧΛΉ ༨ന = 4 ༨ന = 4
༨ന = 0 ͳ͓ ճྫ ݅ ํ
ʮ༨ന͕ଟ͍ͱෆ҆ఆʹͳΔྔࢠϞσϧʯͷྫ ֤Ϛεʹʮࣗͷ্Լࠨӈͷ༨നʯΛ༩͑Δ ͦͷ૯Λ࠷খԽ͢Δ͜ͱΛߟ͑Δ 1 2 1 1 1 1 2
2 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 =25 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 =14 ్த·Ͱྑ͍͕ ख٧·Γ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 =0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 2 1 1 1 =11 ࠷దղ ʢຊ͜͏ߦ͖͍ͨʣ
ߴ͍ͱ͜Ζ͔Β͍ͱ͜Ζ ← ϒϩοΫͷஔύλʔϯ → ྔࢠ ࠷Լ͕ ༨നθϩʹ૬ A B C
D E F G H I J K L M N O P ߦ͖ࢭ·ΓͰɺ 2าԼ͕ͬͯ3าਐΉͷ͕ ैདྷ ʢඇྔࢠʣͷΓํ ଟ ༨ ന ͷ ૯ গ ࠷దղ
ྔࢠΤωϧΪʔతʹ҆ఆ͢Δঢ়ଶΛΉ ෆ ҆ ఆ Τ ω ϧ Ϊ ồ ҆
ఆ ← ϒϩοΫͷஔύλʔϯ → ʢϏοτ͕ࣔ͢ύλʔϯʣ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̌ ྔࢠ ҆ఆՕॴ͔Β ࣗવʹఆ·Γɺ ྔࢠ͕ͦΕΛݟ͚ͭΔ ଟ ༨ ന ͷ ૯ গ ྔࢠͷτϯωϧޮՌɿ ࠷దղʹࢸΔ·Ͱɺ ߦ͖ࢭ·ΓΛ͢Γൈ͚ͯ͠·͏
- ॳ߸ػ2011ൃചɿ128ྔࢠϏοτ - 2000ྔࢠϏοτ - Google/NASA, ϩοΩʔυϚʔςΟϯ, VW͕ࣾར༻ - ࠃͰσϯιʔ͕ަ௨ܦ࿏ͷԋࢉʹಋೖ
΄͔ݚڀࢪઃʢ౦େɺૣҴాେʣ D-Wave 2QʢΞχʔϦϯάܕʣ https://www.dwavesys.com/ ઌߦࢿϕʔεͰͷۀར༻͕ਐΉ
ͦͷଞ ͷऔΓΈ IBM Q GoogleྔࢠਓೳݚڀॴʢQuAILʣ Rigetti Computing 2013ઃཱɻ2022·ͰʹϋΠϒϦουํࣜͷ ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλΛ༻Խ༧ఆ ήʔτํࣜͰ17ྔࢠϏοτɻ20173݄ΑΓۀར༻։࢝
ΫϥυͰͷମݧར༻ Λແྉެ։ ถࠃͷྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλ ελʔτΞοϓ ήʔτํࣜ8ྔࢠϏοτɺ20173݄ʹ6400ສυϧͷࢿۚௐୡ
ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλͷԠ༻Մೳੑ ߴ൚༻ܭࢉʢήʔτํࣜʣ ిࢠϨϕϧͷԽֶγϛϡϨʔγϣϯ ۀ༻ͷ৮ഔɺ৽ૉࡐͷ։ൃɺҩༀ εʔύʔίϯϐϡʔλΛ্ճΔܭࢉ ػցֶशͷՃ ֶशϓϩηεͰੜ͡Δ࠷దԽΛղ͘ ϋʔυͱͱʹΞϧΰϦζϜͷ։ൃ͕ਐΉ
VR, AR, MR
VR, AR, MRͱ VRɿ100% ԾۭؒɻͦͷͰ͏ͷ͕લఏ AR/MRɿݱ࣮ۭؒݟ͑Δɻಈ͖ͳ͕ΒମݧՄೳ ݱ࣮ੈք Ծݱ࣮ ʢVirtual Realityʣ
֦ுݱ࣮ / ࠞ߹ݱ࣮ ʢAugmented Reality / Mixed Realityʣ
ARʢ֦ுݱ࣮ʣ vs MRʢࠞ߹ݱ࣮ʣ AR (augmented), MR (mixed) ݱ࣮ͷ֦ுͱ͍͏ཱͷ AR ʹରͯ͠ɺ
ݱ࣮ɺԾੈքͷڥքͷͳ͞Λڧௐͨ͠ͷ͕ MRɻ Έಉ͡ɺੈք؍ͷҧ͍ ʢຊࢿྉͰ “AR” ʹ౷Ұʣ
େऺ͚ϞσϧήʔϜ͔Β ఱಊɺ1995 όʔνϟϧϘʔΠ (VR) ϙέϞϯGO (AR) NianticʢGoogleΑΓಠཱʣ 2015
2016/4~ɿϧʔϜεέʔϧػೳͰ෦ΛVRۭؒʹ දతͳVRϋʔυ Oculus Rift HTC Vive PlayStation VR Google Cardboard
2014/6~ɿຊମεϚϗΛར༻ 2016/10~ɿຊޠɺՁ֨ɺPS4Ͱ࡞ಈ 2016/3~ɿFacebookʹΑΔങऩ (2014, $2B)
දతͳARϋʔυ Google Glass 2013/2~2015/1ɿ ϓϥΠόγʔݒ೦͔ΒҰൠൢചதࢭʹ Microsoft HoloLens 2016/3~ɿ։ൃऀ͚ϞσϧͷΈൢച Meta2 2017/7~ɿ։ൃऀ͚Ϟσϧɻ90ͷ͍ࢹ֯
Magic Leapʢະެද ະൃചʣ ϓϩμΫτશൿಗͷ··اۀՁ $6B
ARͷ֩ͱͳΔٕज़ μϒϧΧϝϥʢԞߦ͖ೝࣝʣɺGPSɺ࣓ؾηϯαʔɺ ՃηϯαʔɺδϟΠϩηϯαʔ ݱ࣮ۭؒͷѲ AR vs ϦΞϧσʔλͷಉҰ࠲ඪॲཧ ϢʔβʔߦಈʹΑΔΠϯϓοτ ࢹઢํ͕มΘͬͯɺ ARσʔλݱ্࣮ۭؒͰͦͷ··
Ϣʔβ͕ͱͬͨߦಈΛೝࣝ͠ɺ ARۭؒʹϑΟʔυόοΫө
௨ৗӡస࣌ɿΧʔφϏػೳɺμογϡϘʔυදࣔ ࣗಈӡస࣌ɿҬใͷදࣔɺίϛϡχέʔγϣϯύωϧ Navion https://wayray.com/ https://wayray.com/industry/
“SpatialGate & SpatialOrb WIP” https://youtu.be/6D-8kkH1KPE ʢಈըʣ
VR, ARͷͨΒ͢Ձ ૣૹΓʹΑΔ࣌ؒॖɺ࣌ؒٯҠಈʹΑΔΓ͠ VRੑɿ࣌ؒͷૢ࡞ੑ VRੑɿۭؒͷૢ࡞ੑ ARੑɿޒײʢϞμϦςΟʣͷ֦ு ߦ͚ͳ͍ͱ͜Ζߦ͚Δɺ͙͢ʹߦ͚Δɺ ରͷ֦େ&ॖখ ηϯαʔIoTͱͷ࿈ܞͰ ݟ͑ͳ͍ͷ͕ʮݟ͑ΔʯԽ
খܕԽͷޙʹى͜Δ࣭తస 1973 2007 1995 ? ??? 2013 1990 σΟεϓϨΠͷมԽ ɾڸɺ૭
ɾບӨ ɾίϯλΫτϨϯζ ɾϓϩδΣΫγϣϯϚοϐϯά ɾϗϩάϥϜ ɾBCI ϞμϦςΟͷ౷߹ ɾϋϓςΟΫε ɾBCI σόΠεͷ༥߹ ɾεϚϗɺPCɺςϨϏ vs ؟ڸɺڸɺՈ۩ɺۭؒ
“Desktopography: Supporting Responsive Cohabitation Between Virtual Interfaces and Physical Objects”
https://youtu.be/L5mCxfjk6hc ʢಈըʣ
ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯ
ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯͱ σδλϧใͷਅِΛอূ͢Δٕज़͕ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯ ΠϯλʔωοτใΛѻ͏ ใίϐʔɺվ᜵Ͱ͖ͯ͠·͏ ଟ͘ͷͷ͕ใԽ͞Εɺ ίϐʔվ᜵͞ΕΔͱࠔΔͷ͔Γʹ
ΈʢϏοτίΠϯΛྫʹʣ - औҾΛ·ͱΊͯϒϩοΫͱͯ͠ѻ͏ - ϒϩοΫʹաڈͷऔҾ݁Ռ͕ه͞Ε͍ͯΔ - 10͝ͱʹܨ͕ͬͯ৳ͼ͍ͯ͘ A → B
A → B → C A → B → C → D ɾ ɾ ɾ ϒϩοΫ + νΣʔϯ = ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯ
ΈʢϏοτίΠϯΛྫʹʣ A → B A → B → C A
→ B → C → D ɾ ɾ ɾ ʷ Z (10min) ෆਖ਼ॻ͖͑10Ҏʹࡁ·ͤͳ͍ͱɺ
ΈʢϏοτίΠϯΛྫʹʣ ෆਖ਼ॻ͖͑10Ҏʹࡁ·ͤͳ͍ͱɺ ϒϩοΫ͕࣍ʑͱ৳ͼͯΠλνͬ͜͝ʹ A → B A → B →
C A → B → C → D A → B → C → D → E ʷ Z
͔͠શһ͕ಉ͡νΣʔϯΛ͍ͬͯΔ ʮෆਖ਼͕Ͱ͖ͳ͍औҾهாʯ A→B ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ A→B
ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ A→B ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ A→B ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ
ใͷࢄཧ ͜Ε·Ͱ ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯ - ࠃɺاۀ͕ใΛཧ - ϢʔβʔใΛ ΘͤͯΒ͏ཱ - தԝෆࡏ
- Ϣʔβʔશһ͕ର
ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯͷͨΒ͢Ձ ใͷσδλϧԽ - ෳɺվมͷڪΕ͕ݮΓɺσδλϧԽ͕ଅਐ - ྫɿॴखଓ͖ɺূ໌ɺࢿ֨ɺܖॻ ख͞ͳ͍͕ࣾձͷΠϯϑϥͱͳΔٕज़ தԝཧऀͷෆࡏ ݖྗମ͔Βͷґଘ -
ࠃɺେاۀʹཔΒͳ͍ࣾձ ݖྗମʹཔΔϦεΫɿಠࡋԽɺτοϓͱͷڞΕ - ϦεΫྫɿ՟ฎ → ͕ΕͯϋΠύʔΠϯϑϨ - ϦεΫྫɿۚ → ཧෆඋʹΑΓೲه͕ফࣦ
ΤετχΞ ʢਓޱ 100ສਓʣ ిࢠډॅొʹΑͬͯ୭ͰެڞαʔϏε͕ར༻Մೳ ిࢠखଓ͖ͷΈͰձࣾઃཱʢ๏ਓ੫ 0-20%ʣ e-Residency Ծ௨՟ estcoin ͷൃߦ
(ICO) ݕ౼த ΤετίΠϯ 99%͕ΠϯλʔωοτͰ݁ʢిࢠIDɺిࢠαΠϯʣ ߦखଓ ిࢠډॅऀ 1,000ສਓͷిࢠࠃՈΛࢦ͢ (~2025)
ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯͷԠ༻Մೳੑ ॴଐͱ͍͏֓೦ͷมԽ εϚʔτίϯτϥΫτ কདྷͷܖࣥߦ͕อূ͞ΕΔɻকདྷՁͷલआΓ͕Մೳʹ ࠃʹݸਓ͕ैଐ͢ΔͷͰͳ͘ɺ ࠃ੶࠾༻՟ฎɺ੍ݸਓ͕બՄೳͳύϥϝʔλʹ ຽओओٛͷվม ຽओ੍ථݖͷҕୗɺථݖͷޯ͚ ͍ͣΕٕज़্Մೳɻ࠾༻͢Δ͔ҙࢥܾఆͷ
BCI (Brain Computer Interface)
Brain Computer Interfaceͱ ͦͷͷΛσόΠεͱͯ͠͏ٕज़ ະདྷͷSFٕज़Ͱͳ͘ɺݱࡏਐߦܗͷςΫϊϩδʔ ͔ΒͷΞτϓοτ - 1998 αϧ͕ࢥߟͷΈͰΞʔϜΛૢ࡞ʢ1,000kmԕִʣ -
1999 ҙࢥද͕ࣔͰ͖ͳ͍ױऀ ʹΑΔจࣈձ࣮ݱ ͷΠϯϓοτ - 1961 ਓࣖͷୈҰྫ - 1968 ਓບͷୈҰྫ
σόΠεͷछྨ ২ࠐΈܕ ணܕ - ಄֖ࠎ෦ʹిۃ - ʹೖ·ͨද໘ཹஔ - ऑ͍ݕग़Մ -
खज़ෆཁͰ؆ศ - ײ͘ൃల్্ - ຖճௐ͕ඞཁ
“Brain-Computer Interface allows Fast, Accurate Typing by people with Paralysis
| QPT” https://youtu.be/Rma2JDQaY1I ʢಈըʣ
2017্ظͷಈ͖ - ΠʔϩϯϚεΫઃ (Tesla, SpaceX) - ২ࠐΈܕBCI - ʮ݈߁ਓͷBCIΛ10Ҏ ʹ࣮ݱʯ
(2017/3) Google, Microsoft, Intelࣾʹ BCI ෦Λ༗͢Δ ΠʔϩϯϚεΫ࠷ऴతʹਓؒͱAIͷ༥߹ΛݟࠐΉ - ࢥߟʹΑΔλΠϐϯά σόΠε - ணܕBCI - ʮ100ޠ/minͷػثΛ 2Ͱ࡞ʯ (2017/4)
ʮࢥߟ͕Εͯ͠·͏ͷͰʁʯ ͷ͋ΒΏΔిؾత׆ಈ ࢥߟɾҙਤ ཧ ײ ໋ྩɾࢦࣔ ʮΛಈ͔ͤʯ ʮΛग़ͤʯ ʮจࣈΛଧͯʯ ग़ྗର͜ͷϨΠϠʔɻ
ͷલͷਓΛ - ͕উखʹԥͬͯ͠·Θͳ͍ - ແ֮ࣗʹޱઆ͍ͯ͠·Θͳ͍ ͷͱಉ͡Α͏ʹ੍ࣗՄೳ ͜ͷϨΠϠʔ͕͖উखʹ ग़ྗ͞ΕΔΘ͚Ͱͳ͍
ϩϘοτΞʔϜͷΈ ਓؒޠͷΛػցֶश͠ɺػցޠʹࣗಈ༁ͯ͠ૢ࡞ खΑಈ͚ɺखΑಈ͚ɺख Αಈ͚ɺखΑಈ͚ɺखΑ ಈ͚ɺखΑಈ͚ɺखΑ… खΛಈ͔࣌͢ͷ ࢲͷҰཡ 1. ʙʙ 2.
ʙʙ … ׳ΕΕɺ೦͡Δ ඞཁ͢Βແ͘ͳΔ
- ࢹਆܦେΛܹ͢Δ͜ͱՄೳ ϚΠΫ͔ΒௌਆܦɺΧϝϥ͔ΒບΛܹ ਓࣖɺਓບ - શͷਓ͕ਓࢹ֮ͰॳΊͯݟΔੈքଞͱಉ͔͡ʁ - ͷਓ͕ڹఆҐͰʮݟΔʯੈքͲ͏ݟ͑Δͷ͔ʁ - ࢲͷײ͡Δʮʯͱ͋ͳͨͷʮʯಉ͡৭͔ʁ
ʮݟ͑ํɾௌ͑͜ํʯҰ௨ΓͰͳ͍ ੈքͱΠϯλϥΫτͰ͖ΕɺଞਓͱҧͬͯͦΕ֮
BCIͷՄೳੑ ମͷػցԽ ͱମͷۭؒత ༗ػతʹඇ࿈ଓͳࣗݾɻଘࡏͱ͍͏֓೦ͷస ମత੍ݶͷࠀ ඇѹॖ = 1ͷ1 ίϛϡχέʔγϣϯ ݴޠͱ͍͏ϘτϧωοΫͷόΠύε
brain-to-brain interface (BBI) ࣮ྫ͋Γ ڥͰͳ͘ɺզʑͷମΛରͱͨ͠վม
None
ະདྷطʹ͜͜ʹ͋Δ ۉʹߦ͖Θ͍ͨͬͯͳ͍͚ͩͩ –– ΟϦΞϜɾΪϒιϯʢ࡞Ոʣ
ςΫϊϩδʔͷͭੑ࣭
ςΫϊϩδʔͱՊֶ ςΫϊϩδʔͱ ͜ͷੈքͷՊֶ๏ଇΛɺਓؒʹཱͭܗʹม͢Δٕज़ എܠʹৗʹՊֶ๏ଇ CC BY SA 2.0 Fr, Rama
“ిؾ͕Կͷʹཱͭͷ͔ɺࢲʹ͔ Γ·ͤΜɻͨͩ͋ͳͨํʢେଂলʣ͕ কདྷͦΕʹ՝੫͢Δ͜ͱ֬৴͓ͯ͠ Γ·͢” –– ϚΠέϧɾϑΝϥσʔ CC BY 4.0, Fæ
جૅݚڀͷେֶ͔Βاۀ ։ൃ R & D جૅݚڀ ςΫϊϩδʔ Պֶ๏ଇ -
େֶͷݚڀࣨ͝ͱ acqui-hire ͷରʹ - ͑ͯϞϯτϦΦʔϧʹAIݚڀॴΛͭ͘ΔFacebookࣾ اۀ෦ͷൣғ֦େ
10,000ഒɿ (ରεέʔϧ) CC BY 2.0, Steve Jurvetson
Linear vs Exponential ΞϚϥͷ๏ଇɿਓظతʹٕज़ͷӨڹΛաେධՁ͠ɺ ظతʹͦͷӨڹΛաখධՁ͕ͪ͠Ͱ͋Δ linearʢઢܗʣ exponentialʢࢦؔతʣ
ۙ500ͷมԽ ੈքਓޱ ૯ੜ࢈ ফඅྔ 5ԯਓ 2500ԯUSD 130ԯkcal/day 70ԯਓ 60ஹUSD 1.5ஹkcal/day
աڈ500ͷඇ࿈ଓతͳมԽ ͦͯ͠มԽͷϖʔεେ෯ʹՃ 14ഒ 240ഒ 115ഒ 1500 vs ݱ ʢʰαϐΤϯεશ࢙ʱ Yuval Noah Harari – 2011ݪஶʣ
ੈքਓޱʢԯਓʣ 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
͍·50ࡀɿੈքਓޱ 40ԯਓ ͱڭΘͬͨੈ ͍· 0 ࡀɿੈքਓޱ 85ԯਓ ͱڭΘΔੈ
அͷޡṩ 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 2002
2004 2006 2008 2010 ܞଳిͷࢢ༧ଌ ʢ2002૬ରʣ ࣮ࡍ 2002༧ଌ ࣮ࡍͷۂઢ (YoY+100%) vs ίϯαϧςΟϯάϑΝʔϜ4ࣾͷ༧ଌ (McKinsey, Gartner, Forrester, Jupiter)
அͷޡṩ 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 2002
2004 2006 2008 2010 ܞଳిͷࢢ༧ଌ ʢ2002૬ରʣ ࣮ࡍ 2002༧ଌ 2004༧ଌ ࣮ࡍͷۂઢ (YoY+100%) vs ίϯαϧςΟϯάϑΝʔϜ4ࣾͷ༧ଌ (McKinsey, Gartner, Forrester, Jupiter)
அͷޡṩ 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 2002
2004 2006 2008 2010 ܞଳిͷࢢ༧ଌ ʢ2002૬ରʣ ࣮ࡍ 2002༧ଌ 2004༧ଌ 2006༧ଌ ࣮ࡍͷۂઢ (YoY+100%) vs ίϯαϧςΟϯάϑΝʔϜ4ࣾͷ༧ଌ (McKinsey, Gartner, Forrester, Jupiter)
அͷޡṩ 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 2002
2004 2006 2008 2010 ܞଳిͷࢢ༧ଌ ʢ2002૬ରʣ ࣮ࡍ 2002༧ଌ 2004༧ଌ 2006༧ଌ 2008༧ଌ Exponential ͳΛݟͯɺ༧ଌ linear ͷ··
Exponential ͳੑ࣭Ͳ͔͜ΒདྷΔͷ͔ ࢈ۀֵ໋ͷݯઘԿ͔ (T: technology M: money P: people) -
ৠؾػؔɺͰͳ͘ɺੴ → ৠؾػؔ → ੴͷ ॥ߏ - ੴੜ࢈ྔɿ300ສτϯ/ (18ੈل) → 1ԯτϯ/ (19ੈل) - ςΫϊϩδʔ͕ςΫϊϩδʔΛਐาͤ͞Δ - ਖ਼ͷ॥ߏ ϙδςΟϒϑΟʔυόοΫ͕伴
“Thinking beyond the rules” - ण໋ͷน125ࡀ͔ʁ - ਓྨ100mͰ9ඵΛΕΔ͔ʁ8ඵΕΔ͔ʁ 65 70
75 80 85 90 ຊਓͷฏۉण໋ʢաڈ50ʣ உੑ ঁੑ
“The Fitness Model Without a Pulse” https://youtu.be/gNUATS8Jhuk ʢಈըʣ
ʷ3.0 ݄1ׂͷ༧ଌޡࠩ ʹ 2Ͱ3ഒͷޡࠩɻExponential ͳͷɺ ͦ͏ͱ͔͍ͬͯͯ࣌ظͱنͷ༧ଌ͕ࠔ ະདྷਖ਼֬ʹ༧ଌͰ͖ͳ͍ ʷ3.0 +10% ج४
-10%
༧ଌͰ͖ͳ͍ͷͷରॲ๏ Exponential ͔ͭ ༧ଌෆೳͳͷ Linear ͔ͭ ༧ଌෆೳͳͷ - ͲΕ͕৳ͼΔ͔ෆ໌ͷͨΊղແ͠ -
ίετϦλʔϯ linear Ͱ͋ΓɺΪϟϯϒϧ - ϙʔτϑΥϦΦԽ͢ΕɺͲΕ͔͕৳ͼΔ - ίετ linear ͕ͩɺϦλʔϯ exponential ࢿͷܦࡁ߹ཧੑ͕͋Δ = GAFA͕શͯʹखΛग़͢ཧ༝ ςΫϊϩδʔΛ ૣ͘ɺ͘ԡ͑͞Δ ͜ͱͷՁ
ਖ਼֬ͳ༧ଌͰ͖ͳͯ͘વ https://www.weforum.org/
୭ࣗ͠ͷ૾ྗͷݶք͕ɺ ੈքͷݶքͩͱޡղ͢Δ –– γϣʔϖϯϋΞʔʢֶऀʣ
ϒϩά http://okiyamasho.com ɾུྺ 2010 – ౦ژେֶҩֶ෦ଔۀ 2012 – ٹ໋ٹٸҩʢҩྍηϯλʔʣ 2013
– υΫλʔϔϦɺౡҩྍʢੴ֞ౡɺরؒౡʣ 2015 – גࣜձࣾϝυϨʔʢࣥߦһʣ 2017 – ϑϦʔʢݚڀऀ/ใֶʣ ɾॴଐֶձ ਓೳֶձɺใॲཧֶձɺ ຊٹٸҩֶձʢઐҩʣɺຊՊֶձ ԭࢁ ᠳʢ͓͖· ͠ΐ͏ʣ