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エクスポネンシャル・テクノロジーと未来 / exponential technologies ...

Sho Okiyama
October 11, 2017

エクスポネンシャル・テクノロジーと未来 / exponential technologies and the future

2017.10.11 日経ビジネススクール テクノロジーインパクト2030
for more info:http://okiyamasho.com

Sho Okiyama

October 11, 2017
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  1. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% ༧ఆ ࣮ࡍ ςΫϊϩδʔͷਐา͸ࢦ਺ؔ਺త 1997೥

    ήϊϜͷղಡୡ੒཰͸1% ଟ͕͘ܭըதࢭΛओு ͔͠͠ʮ 1% ऴΘͬͨͷͳΒɺ΋͏൒෼ऴΘͬͨʹ౳͍͠ʯ ώτήϊϜܭը ਐḿ ʢ60ԯUSD/15ϲ೥ʣ 1%
  2. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% ༧ఆ ࣮ࡍ ςΫϊϩδʔͷਐา͸ࢦ਺ؔ਺త 1997೥

    ήϊϜͷղಡୡ੒཰͸1% ଟ͕͘ܭըதࢭΛओு ͔͠͠ʮ 1% ऴΘͬͨͷͳΒɺ΋͏൒෼ऴΘͬͨʹ౳͍͠ʯ ώτήϊϜܭը ਐḿ ʢ60ԯUSD/15ϲ೥ʣ
  3. اۀͷฏۉण໋ “10೥ޙʹ͸ Fortune 500اۀͷ40% ͕ɺ΋͸΍ଘࡏ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ͩΖ͏” Babson Olin School of Business,

    Fast Company (2011) S&P 500ࡏ੶ظؒ͸ େ͖͘ݮগ 67೥ 15೥ ࢈ۀߏ଄ͷมԽͱɺ ϓϨΠϠʔͷೖΕସΘΓ 0 20 40 60 80 1920೥୅ ࠓ೔
  4. AIͷϨΠϠʔ ΋͸΍ਓ޻஌ೳͱݺ͹Εͳ͘ͳͬͨ΋ͷ ਓ޻஌ೳ ػցֶश σΟʔϓϥʔχϯά ϧʔϧϕʔευ l AlphaGo l ը૾ೝࣝ

    l AI in the 1980’s l ࣗಈυΞ l ϧϯό l ʮAͳΒ͹Bʯ l MS OfficeͷΠϧΧ ൚༻ਓ޻஌ೳʁ ݱঢ়ͷ Ԇ௕ઢ্ʹ͸ͳ͍
  5. σΟʔϓϥʔχϯά ͜Ε·Ͱ ཱ͕ࣖͬͯͯ… ໨͕2ͭ͋ͬͯ… ඓ͸ࡾ֯Ͱ… ͦͷԼʹޱ͕… ͢΂ͯਓ͕ڭ͍͑ͯͨ - ώή͸͋Δͷʁͳ͍ͷʁ -

    ޱ͸Կݸʁ - ͋Ε͸ʁ͜Ε͸ʁ ԿΛͲ͜·Ͱڭ͑Δ΂͖͔ෆ໌ ݱࡏ ػց͕উखʹڞ௨఺Λֶश - ࣅͨࣸਅ͝ͱʹ෼͚ͱ͍ͯʂ - ͋ɺ͜ͷࢁ͕ʮωίʯͶɻ αϯϓϧ਺͕૿͑Ε͹ݸମࠩ͸ٵऩɺ ฏۉ͢ΔͱʮೣΒ͠͞ʯ͕࢒Δ
  6. ʦᗡ஬ྨʧ τΧήͱͶɺϫχͱ ΧϝͱΠϞϦͱ… αϯϓϧ͑͞༩͑Ε͹ɺ ʮᗡ஬ྨͱ͍͏֓೦ʯͷநग़͸ AI೚ͤͰOK ʮಛ௃ྔʯͱ͸ ʦԁʧ ͋Δ఺͔Βͷڑ཭͕ ౳͍͠఺ͷू߹

    ఆٛͰ͖Δ΋ͷ͸ѻ͑Δ ͜Ε·Ͱ σΟʔϓϥʔχϯά ʦᗡ஬ྨʧ ͑ʔɺมԹಈ෺Ͱ ଍͕4ຊ͋ͬͯ… ੑ࣭ྻڍͷΈͰ͸ѻ͑ͳ͍ ఆٛͮ͠Β͍ந৅తͳ֓೦΋ ੑ࣭ͷ··ʢ=ಛ௃ྔʣѻ͑Δ
  7. - τϨʔμʔ৬͸ AI ʹͦͷ஍ҐΛৡͬͨ - ΞφϦετϨϙʔτͷʮߦؒΛಡΉྗʯ͸ਓؒҎ্ - Ӵ੕ࣸਅͷղੳɿறं৔ͷར༻཰ɺ೶࡞෺ͷ࠿ഓঢ়گ͔Β ౤ࢿ൑அ τϨʔμʔͷ਺ɿ600ਓ

    → 2ਓ NYΦϑΟεʹ͸200ਓͷAI։ൃऀ ਓ͕ؒར׆༻Ͱ͖ͳ͍σʔλͰ͕ࠩͭ͘ Ϧλʔϯ͸30೥લͷ2-5ഒ http://www.goldmansachs.com/
  8. - ମྗ૿ڧɿ࠲ͬͯखज़Ͱ͖Δ + ΞʔϜϨετ - ࢹྗ૿ڧɿ3D಺ࢹڸ + ζʔϜࢹ 15ഒ -

    ख͕3ຊʹɿ3ຊͷΞʔϜΛ1ਓͰૢΕΔ - ؔઅػೳ૿ڧɿؔઅՄಈҬ360౓ - ਆܦɺ ے೑ػೳ૿ڧɿࣗಈखͿΕิਖ਼ - খ೴ػೳ૿ڧɿϞʔγϣϯεέʔϧʢ1:5ʣ μɾϰΟϯνʢૢॎࣜϩϘοτʣ ಓ۩Λ௒͑ͨɺਓؒͷೳྗ૿ڧσόΠε https://www.intuitivesurgical.com/
  9. - ࣗಈֶशɿ͸͡ΊʹखΛऔͬͯ ՝୊Λڭ͑Δͱ͔࣍Βࣗ૸ - ൚༻ੑɿϓϩάϥϛϯάෆཁͰ ଟ༻్ - 2.5ສυϧ/ମɿ࣌څ300ԁ/365೔ ฏۉ౤ࢿճऩظؒ <

    1೥ όΫελʔʢࣗ૸ࣜϩϘοτʣ ௚ײతʹڭҭͰ͖Δࣗ૸ϩϘοτ ੡଄ۀͷίετߏ଄͕มԽ http://www.rethinkrobotics.com/
  10. ίϯϐϡʔλͷछྨ ݹయత ίϯϐϡʔλ ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλ (QC: Quantum Computer) ήʔτํࣜQC ΠδϯάϚγϯํࣜQC -

    ΞχʔϦϯάܕ - ϨʔβʔωοτϫʔΫܕ ͦͷଞͷ “ίϯϐϡʔλ” DNAίϯϐϡʔλ ೪ەίϯϐϡʔλ εύήςΟίϯϐϡʔλ etc. ݱࡏͷίϯϐϡʔλ σδλϧίϯϐϡʔλ Ξφϩάίϯϐϡʔλ
  11. ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλͷछྨ ήʔτํࣜ ΠδϯάϚγϯํࣜ - ࠓͷίϯϐϡʔλͱࠜຊతʹ֓೦͕ҟͳΔɺ෺ཧγϛϡϨʔλ - ༻్ݶΒΕΔ͕͜ͷܕͷΈʹղ͚Δ໰୊͕ଘࡏʢ࠷దԽ໰୊ʣ - D-WaveࣾΑΓ2011೥ʹൃച։࢝ -

    ࠓͷίϯϐϡʔλͷ਺ສഒૣ্͍Ґޓ׵ʢཧ࿦্ʣ - ϋʔυ͸খϏοτ਺ͷϓϩτλΠϓͷΈଘࡏ - ιϑτ΋·ͩ·ͩݚڀஈ֊ͰΞϧΰϦζϜछྨগͳ͍
  12. ඇྔࢠͱྔࢠ 1 0 1 0 τϥϯδελʢ=εΠονʣ ήʔτํࣜ ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλ Ұ౓ʹ 24

    = 16௨ΓΛಉ࣌ॲཧ ʢNྔࢠϏοτͳΒ 2N ௨Γʣ 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 ैདྷͷίϯϐϡʔλ - 4ϏοτͰ “1101” Λද͍ͯ͠Δ - Ұ౓ʹҰ௨Γͣͭॲཧ ྔࢠͷฒߦॲཧੑ ʢ=଎͍ʣ Λར༻ͨ͠ͷ͕ήʔτํࣜQC
  13. ޲͍͍ͯΔ໰୊ ࠷దԽ໰୊ ༩͑ΒΕͨ৚݅಺Ͱ໨ඪ஋Λ࠷খԽ͢Δ໰୊ ८ճηʔϧεϚϯ໰୊ NΫΠʔϯ໰୊ ˒ ˒ ˒ ˒ ˒

    ˒ ˒ ˒ ˔ ˔ ˔ ˔ ˔ ˔ ˔ Ұචॻ͖ͷ૯ڑ཭Λ࠷খԽ͢Δ NʷN֨ࢠʹνΣεͷΫΠʔϯΛNݸฒ΂ɺ ܦ࿏্ͷॏෳΛ࠷খԽ͢Δʢແ͘͢ʣ
  14. ʮ༨ന͕ଟ͍ͱෆ҆ఆʹͳΔྔࢠϞσϧʯͷྫ ֤Ϛεʹʮࣗ਎ͷ্Լࠨӈͷ༨ന਺ʯΛ༩͑Δ ͦͷ૯࿨Λ࠷খԽ͢Δ͜ͱΛߟ͑Δ 1 2 1 1 1 1 2

    2 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 ࿨=25 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 ࿨=14 ్த·Ͱྑ͍͕ ख٧·Γ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ࿨=0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 2 1 1 1 ࿨=11 ࠷దղ ʢຊ౰͸͜͏ߦ͖͍ͨʣ
  15. ߴ͍ͱ͜Ζ͔Β௿͍ͱ͜Ζ΁ ← ϒϩοΫͷ഑ஔύλʔϯ → ྔࢠ ࠷Լ఺͕ ༨നθϩʹ૬౰ A B C

    D E F G H I J K L M N O P ߦ͖ࢭ·ΓͰ͸ɺ 2าԼ͕ͬͯ3าਐΉͷ͕ ैདྷ ʢඇྔࢠʣͷ΍Γํ ଟ ༨ ന ͷ ૯ ࿨ গ ࠷దղ
  16. ྔࢠ͸ΤωϧΪʔతʹ҆ఆ͢Δঢ়ଶΛ๬Ή ෆ ҆ ఆ Τ ω ϧ Ϊ ồ ҆

    ఆ ← ϒϩοΫͷ഑ஔύλʔϯ → ʢϏοτ͕ࣔ͢ύλʔϯʣ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̌ ྔࢠ ҆ఆՕॴ͸໰୊͔Β ࣗવʹఆ·Γɺ ྔࢠ͕ͦΕΛݟ͚ͭΔ ଟ ༨ ന ͷ ૯ ࿨ গ ྔࢠͷτϯωϧޮՌɿ ࠷దղʹࢸΔ·Ͱɺ ߦ͖ࢭ·ΓΛ͢Γൈ͚ͯ͠·͏
  17. - ॳ߸ػ͸2011೥ൃചɿ128ྔࢠϏοτ - 2000ྔࢠϏοτ - Google/NASA, ϩοΩʔυϚʔςΟϯ, VW͕ࣾར༻ - ࠃ಺Ͱ͸σϯιʔ͕ަ௨ܦ࿏ͷԋࢉʹಋೖ

    ΄͔ݚڀࢪઃʢ౦๺େɺૣҴాେʣ D-Wave 2QʢΞχʔϦϯάܕʣ https://www.dwavesys.com/ ઌߦ౤ࢿϕʔεͰͷ঎ۀར༻͕ਐΉ
  18. ARʢ֦ுݱ࣮ʣ vs MRʢࠞ߹ݱ࣮ʣ AR (augmented), MR (mixed) ݱ࣮ͷ֦ுͱ͍͏ཱ৔ͷ AR ʹରͯ͠ɺ

    ݱ࣮ɺԾ૝ੈքͷڥքͷͳ͞Λڧௐͨ͠ͷ͕ MRɻ ࢓૊Έ͸ಉ͡ɺੈք؍ͷҧ͍ ʢຊࢿྉ಺Ͱ͸ “AR” ʹ౷Ұʣ
  19. 2016/4~ɿϧʔϜεέʔϧػೳͰ෦԰ΛVRۭؒʹ ୅දతͳVRϋʔυ Oculus Rift HTC Vive PlayStation VR Google Cardboard

    2014/6~ɿຊମ͸εϚϗΛར༻ 2016/10~ɿ೔ຊޠɺ௿Ձ֨ɺPS4Ͱ࡞ಈ 2016/3~ɿFacebookʹΑΔങऩ (2014, $2B)
  20. খܕԽͷޙʹى͜Δ࣭తస׵ 1973 2007 1995 ? ??? 2013 1990 σΟεϓϨΠͷมԽ ɾڸɺ૭

    ɾ໢ບ౤Ө ɾίϯλΫτϨϯζ ɾϓϩδΣΫγϣϯϚοϐϯά ɾϗϩάϥϜ ɾBCI ϞμϦςΟͷ౷߹ ɾϋϓςΟΫε ɾBCI σόΠεͷ༥߹ ɾεϚϗɺPCɺςϨϏ vs ؟ڸɺڸɺՈ۩ɺۭؒ
  21. ࢓૊ΈʢϏοτίΠϯΛྫʹʣ A → B A → B → C A

    → B → C → D ɾ ɾ ɾ ʷ Z (10min) ෆਖ਼ॻ͖׵͑͸10෼Ҏ಺ʹࡁ·ͤͳ͍ͱɺ
  22. ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯͷ΋ͨΒ͢Ձ஋ ৘ใͷσδλϧԽ - ෳ੡ɺվมͷڪΕ͕ݮΓɺσδλϧԽ͕ଅਐ - ྫɿ໾ॴखଓ͖ɺ਎෼ূ໌ɺࢿ֨΍੒੷ɺܖ໿ॻ ೿ख͞͸ͳ͍͕ࣾձͷΠϯϑϥͱͳΔٕज़ தԝ؅ཧऀͷෆࡏ ݖྗମ͔Βͷ୤ґଘ -

    ࠃɺେاۀʹཔΒͳ͍ࣾձ΁ ݖྗମʹཔΔϦεΫɿಠࡋԽɺτοϓͱͷڞ౗Ε - ϦεΫྫɿ՟ฎ → ੓෎͕౗ΕͯϋΠύʔΠϯϑϨ - ϦεΫྫɿ೥ۚ → ؅ཧෆඋʹΑΓೲ෇ه࿥͕ফࣦ
  23. ΤετχΞ ʢਓޱ 100ສਓʣ ిࢠډॅొ࿥ʹΑͬͯ୭Ͱ΋ެڞαʔϏε͕ར༻Մೳ ిࢠखଓ͖ͷΈͰձࣾઃཱʢ๏ਓ੫ 0-20%ʣ e-Residency Ծ૝௨՟ estcoin ͷൃߦ

    (ICO) ݕ౼த ΤετίΠϯ 99%͕ΠϯλʔωοτͰ׬݁ʢిࢠIDɺిࢠαΠϯʣ ߦ੓खଓ ిࢠډॅऀ 1,000ສਓͷిࢠࠃՈΛ໨ࢦ͢ (~2025)
  24. Brain Computer Interfaceͱ͸ ೴ͦͷ΋ͷΛσόΠεͱͯ͠࢖͏ٕज़ ະདྷͷSFٕज़Ͱ͸ͳ͘ɺݱࡏਐߦܗͷςΫϊϩδʔ ೴͔ΒͷΞ΢τϓοτ - 1998೥ αϧ͕ࢥߟͷΈͰΞʔϜΛૢ࡞ʢ1,000kmԕִʣ -

    1999೥ ҙࢥද͕ࣔͰ͖ͳ͍ױऀ ೴೾ʹΑΔจࣈձ࿩࣮ݱ ೴΁ͷΠϯϓοτ - 1961೥ ਓ޻಺ࣖͷୈҰྫ໨ - 1968೥ ਓ޻໢ບͷୈҰྫ໨
  25. 2017೥্൒ظͷಈ͖ - ΠʔϩϯϚεΫ૑ઃ (Tesla, SpaceX) - ২ࠐΈܕBCI - ʮ݈߁ਓͷBCIΛ10೥Ҏ಺ ʹ࣮ݱʯ

    (2017/3) Google, Microsoft, Intel΋ࣾ಺ʹ BCI ෦໳Λ༗͢Δ ΠʔϩϯϚεΫ͸࠷ऴతʹਓؒͱAIͷ༥߹ΛݟࠐΉ - ࢥߟʹΑΔλΠϐϯά σόΠε - ૷ணܕBCI - ʮ100ޠ/minͷػثΛ 2೥Ͱ࡞੒ʯ (2017/4)
  26. ʮࢥߟ͕͹Εͯ͠·͏ͷͰ͸ʁʯ ೴ͷ͋ΒΏΔిؾత׆ಈ ࢥߟɾҙਤ ࿦ཧ ײ৘ ໋ྩɾࢦࣔ ʮ࿹Λಈ͔ͤʯ ʮ੠Λग़ͤʯ ʮจࣈΛଧͯʯ ग़ྗର৅͸͜ͷϨΠϠʔɻ

    ໨ͷલͷਓΛ - ࿹͕উखʹԥͬͯ͠·Θͳ͍ - ແ֮ࣗʹޱઆ͍ͯ͠·Θͳ͍ ͷͱಉ͡Α͏ʹ੍ࣗ͸Մೳ ͜ͷϨΠϠʔ͕޷͖উखʹ ग़ྗ͞ΕΔΘ͚Ͱ͸ͳ͍
  27. جૅݚڀͷ৔͸େֶ͔Βاۀ΁ ੡඼։ൃ R & D جૅݚڀ ੡඼ ςΫϊϩδʔ Պֶ๏ଇ -

    େֶͷݚڀࣨ͝ͱ acqui-hire ͷର৅ʹ - ׶͑ͯϞϯτϦΦʔϧʹAIݚڀॴΛͭ͘ΔFacebookࣾ اۀ಺෦໳ͷൣғ֦େ
  28. ௚ۙ500೥ͷมԽ ੈքਓޱ ૯ੜ࢈ ফඅ೤ྔ 5ԯਓ 2500ԯUSD 130ԯkcal/day 70ԯਓ 60ஹUSD 1.5ஹkcal/day

    աڈ500೥ͷඇ࿈ଓతͳมԽ ͦͯ͠มԽͷϖʔε͸େ෯ʹՃ଎ 14ഒ 240ഒ 115ഒ 1500೥ vs ݱ୅ ʢʰαϐΤϯεશ࢙ʱ Yuval Noah Harari – 2011೥ݪஶʣ
  29. ੈքਓޱʢԯਓʣ 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

    ͍·50ࡀɿੈքਓޱ͸ 40ԯਓ ͱڭΘͬͨੈ୅ ͍· 0 ࡀɿੈքਓޱ͸ 85ԯਓ ͱڭΘΔੈ୅
  30. ൑அͷޡṩ 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 2002

    2004 2006 2008 2010 ܞଳి࿩ͷࢢ৔༧ଌ ʢ2002೥૬ର஋ʣ ࣮ࡍ 2002༧ଌ ࣮ࡍͷ੒௕ۂઢ (YoY+100%) vs ίϯαϧςΟϯάϑΝʔϜ4ࣾͷ༧ଌ (McKinsey, Gartner, Forrester, Jupiter)
  31. ൑அͷޡṩ 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 2002

    2004 2006 2008 2010 ܞଳి࿩ͷࢢ৔༧ଌ ʢ2002೥૬ର஋ʣ ࣮ࡍ 2002༧ଌ 2004༧ଌ ࣮ࡍͷ੒௕ۂઢ (YoY+100%) vs ίϯαϧςΟϯάϑΝʔϜ4ࣾͷ༧ଌ (McKinsey, Gartner, Forrester, Jupiter)
  32. ൑அͷޡṩ 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 2002

    2004 2006 2008 2010 ܞଳి࿩ͷࢢ৔༧ଌ ʢ2002೥૬ର஋ʣ ࣮ࡍ 2002༧ଌ 2004༧ଌ 2006༧ଌ ࣮ࡍͷ੒௕ۂઢ (YoY+100%) vs ίϯαϧςΟϯάϑΝʔϜ4ࣾͷ༧ଌ (McKinsey, Gartner, Forrester, Jupiter)
  33. ൑அͷޡṩ 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 2002

    2004 2006 2008 2010 ܞଳి࿩ͷࢢ৔༧ଌ ʢ2002೥૬ର஋ʣ ࣮ࡍ 2002༧ଌ 2004༧ଌ 2006༧ଌ 2008༧ଌ Exponential ͳ੒௕Λݟͯ΋ɺ༧ଌ͸ linear ͷ··
  34. Exponential ͳੑ࣭͸Ͳ͔͜ΒདྷΔͷ͔ ࢈ۀֵ໋ͷݯઘ͸Կ͔ (T: technology M: money P: people) -

    ৠؾػؔɺͰ͸ͳ͘ɺੴ୸ → ৠؾػؔ → ੴ୸ͷ ॥؀ߏ଄ - ੴ୸ੜ࢈ྔɿ300ສτϯ/೥ (18ੈل) → 1ԯτϯ/೥ (19ੈل) - ςΫϊϩδʔ͕ςΫϊϩδʔΛਐาͤ͞Δ - ਖ਼ͷ॥؀ߏ଄ ϙδςΟϒϑΟʔυόοΫ͕伴
  35. ༧ଌͰ͖ͳ͍΋ͷ΁ͷରॲ๏ Exponential ͔ͭ ༧ଌෆೳͳ΋ͷ Linear ͔ͭ ༧ଌෆೳͳ΋ͷ - ͲΕ͕৳ͼΔ͔ෆ໌ͷͨΊղແ͠ -

    ίετ΋Ϧλʔϯ΋ linear Ͱ͋ΓɺΪϟϯϒϧ - ϙʔτϑΥϦΦԽ͢Ε͹ɺͲΕ͔͕৳ͼΔ - ίετ͸ linear ͕ͩɺϦλʔϯ͸ exponential ౤ࢿͷܦࡁ߹ཧੑ͕͋Δ = GAFA͕શͯʹखΛग़͢ཧ༝ ςΫϊϩδʔΛ ૣ͘ɺ޿͘ԡ͑͞Δ ͜ͱͷՁ஋
  36. ϒϩά http://okiyamasho.com ɾུྺ 2010 – ౦ژେֶҩֶ෦ଔۀ 2012 – ٹ໋ٹٸҩʢ೔੺ҩྍηϯλʔʣ 2013

    – υΫλʔϔϦɺ཭ౡҩྍʢੴ֞ౡɺ೾রؒౡʣ 2015 – גࣜձࣾϝυϨʔʢࣥߦ໾һʣ 2017 – ϑϦʔʢݚڀऀ/৘ใֶʣ ɾॴଐֶձ ਓ޻஌ೳֶձɺ৘ใॲཧֶձɺ ೔ຊٹٸҩֶձʢઐ໳ҩʣɺ೔ຊ಺Պֶձ ԭࢁ ᠳʢ͓͖΍· ͠ΐ͏ʣ