CPIJ2026

Slides for Annual conference of the City Planning Institute of Japan about causal inference of land use-transport interactions.

Transcript

1. 2026೧11݆1ೖʤೖʥ ೖຌ౐ࢤ‫ܯ‬ժָճ 2026೧ౕસࠅ୉ճʤ୊61յ࿨ช൅නճʥ ౐ࢤ಼ಕ࿑੖ඍౖ͗ஏࢤ৖Ͷ༫͓ΖӪ‫ڻ‬ʁ নࢃ֐‫؂‬য়ಕ࿑͹ஊ֌ద੖ඍΝ༽͏ͪαϙʖφพࠫ͹ࠫ෾ੵ ‫ۿ‬ຌ୉ָ ͚Ή΍ͳਭ१‫؂‬ʀ‫گڂݜࡄݰ‬үιϱνʖ ଁీ ‫ܝ‬ध Google Maps
2. ഐ‫ܢ‬ʁި௪΢ϱϓϧ੖ඍͶΓΖ౐ࢤߑଆ͹รԿ 2 ෾ੵ͹3ͯ͹ࢻ఼ ‡ ౐ࢤ಼ or Ҳൢಕɼరಕ ‡ ୻‫غ‬ 10೧ఖౕ or ౐ࢤؔ ౐ࢤؔ߶ଐɼ߶ଐరಕ ௗ‫غ‬ ਼ॉ೧ʛ ‡ Ӫ‫ڻ‬Νण͜Ζร਼͹झྪ ‡ ਕ޳ɼஏՃɼౖஏཤ༽ɼ‫༽ޑ‬ɼGDP ৭ీᖔΔ (2025)ΓΕɽસࠅ߶ଐಕ࿑໤ͳ1971ʛ2010೧͹ ౐ࢤ‫ࢤ಼ݏ༽ޑ‬৖Πέιη͹ଲ਼รԿི ‡ ࠅౖϪϗϩ͹΢ϱϓϧ͗Ϝέϫ͵౐ࢤॄ੷Ώ‫׈ࡃܨ‬ಊͶ༫͓ΖӪ‫ڻ‬Ν඲ՃͤΖɽ ‡ ૤ࡠร਼๑ɼDIDɼܑ޴ηαΠϜροϱή౵͹ҾՎਬ࿨घ๑ͶΓΖɼ΢ϱϓϧ ੖ඍްՎ͹ਬఈ͗൅ఴ
3. ഐ‫ܢ‬ʁި௪΢ϱϓϧ੖ඍͶΓΖ౐ࢤߑଆ͹รԿ ෾ੵ͹3ͯ͹ࢻ఼ ‡ ౐ࢤ಼ or Ҳൢಕɼరಕ ‡ ୻‫غ‬ 10೧ఖౕ or ౐ࢤؔ ౐ࢤؔ߶ଐɼ߶ଐరಕ ௗ‫غ‬ ਼ॉ೧ʛ ‡ Ӫ‫ڻ‬Νण͜Ζร਼͹झྪ ‡ ਕ޳ɼஏՃɼౖஏཤ༽ɼ‫༽ޑ‬ɼGDP ‡ ౐ࢤ‫ܯ‬ժ͹؏఼͖Δͺɼ౐ࢤ಼͹ಕ࿑बวͶ͕͏ͱ10೧ఖౕͲ൅ਫ਼ͤΖ ϝέϫ͵ཱིஏรԿͶଲԢͤΖචགྷ͍͗Ζ ྭʥ‫ײ‬તಕ࿑बวͲ͹ໃ஡঄͵֋൅ཊ੏ɼࢊ‫ཱིۂ‬ஏ͹ଇ਒ ਕ޳ଁՅΝ‫ݡ‬ӿͪ͢ޮ‫ިڠ‬௪੖ඍ ຌ‫Ͳڂݜ‬ͺɼ౐ࢤ಼͹ಕ࿑੖ඍ͗౐ࢤߑଆͶ༫͓Ζ୻‫غ‬ద͵Ӫ‫ڻ‬Ν ਕ޳ʀஏՃʀౖஏཤ༽͖Δ૱߻దͶ෾ੵ 3
4. ‫ڂݜ‬͹໲͏ 4 ໲͏ 1. ౐ࢤ಼ಕ࿑੖ඍͺबว͹ਕ޳ʀஏՃʀౖஏཤ༽Ͷ୻‫غ‬దӪ‫ڻ‬Ν ༫͓Ζ͖ɽ༫͓Ζ৖߻ɼʹΗΆʹ͹୉͖͘͠ɽ 2. ౖஏཤ༽͹รԿͺɼಕ࿑Ԍત͹ʹ͹෨෾ͲಝͶ୉͘͏͖ 3. ௗ‫غ‬ʀ౐ࢤؔ͹ಕ࿑੖ඍͳ͹ҩ͏ͺՁ͖ घ๑ ‡ নࢃࢤ͹‫؂‬য়ಕ࿑֋અΝଲেͶɼ޽ࣆ஥घ઴‫ޛ‬15೧ؔ͹ਕ޳ʀஏՃʀ ౖஏཤ༽͹รԿΝ෾ੵͤΖɽ ‡ ಕ࿑͹ஊ֌ద੖ඍΝཤ༽ͪ͢ॴ஖‫܊‬ʀଲল‫܊‬અ‫ࠫͳܯ‬͹ࠫ (DID)ਬఈྖ Ν಍೘ɽ ‡ ஏਦ৏͹ϕϫρφΓΕɼಕ࿑Ԍત͹ౖஏཤ༽รԿ͹ஏཀྵదҡ࣯੓Ν෾ੵɽ ‡ ‫ع‬ԡ‫ڂݜ‬͹எ‫ͳݡ‬͹ྪࣇʀࠫҡΝߡࡱ
5. 5 ‫ع‬ԡ‫ڂݜ‬ ଲেஏҮʀ ෾ੵୱҒ ‫ؔغ‬ ‫ັڷ‬͹ ಕ࿑੖ඍ͹ްՎ ͍Ζร਼ Baum-Snow (2007) ธࠅ ౐ࢤ‫ݏ‬ 40೧ (1950-1990) ਕ޳ ߶ଐಕ࿑1ຌͺ౐ࢤ‫಼ݏ‬͹஦ৼࢤ ਕ޳Ν༁18%‫ݰ‬ঙͦͪ͠ɽ Duranton and Turner (2012) ธࠅ ౐ࢤ‫ݏ‬ 25೧ (1983-2003) ‫༽ޑ‬ ಕ࿑͹ଁՅ10%ͺɼ20೧ؔ͹౐ࢤ ‫༽ޑ‬Ν༁1.5%ଁՅͦͪ͠ɽ Garcia-López (2012) ώϩιϫψ Census-tract 15೧ (1991-2006) ਕ޳ ਕ޳ʀ‫༽ޑ‬͹߭֐ԿΝଇ਒ Garcia-López et al. (2015) ηϘ΢ϱ ౐ࢤ‫ݏ‬ 46೧ (1960-2006) ਕ޳, ‫ޑ‬ ༽ ౐ࢤ஦ৼ෨͖Δ߭֐΃͹ਕ޳Ңಊ Ν༙қͶଇͪ͢ɽ Baum-Snow et al. (2020) ஦ࠅ ‫ݟ‬ 28೧ (1982-2010) ਕ޳, GDP౵ ஦਽౐ࢤ͹ਕ޳ʀਫ਼ࢊΝଁΏͤҲ ๏ɼ‫ޛ‬ഐ౐ࢤͺηφϫʖްՎ ৭ీᖔΔ (2022) ೖຌ ౐ࢤ‫ݏ༽ޑ‬ 30೧ (1981-2011) ஏՃ ଠ౐ࢤ΃͹ΠέιηրવΏ‫ं༽ޑ‬ ືౕΝ௪ͣͱஏՃͶਜ਼͹ްՎ Aïkous et al. (2023) ϠϱφϨΨʖϩ ۢժ 19೧ (2000-2019) ޽‫ۂ‬ʀঐ Ԍત͹֋൅ʀ༽౏఺‫͓ଁ͗׷‬ɼް ‫ݒ༽ۂ‬஛ Վͺಕ࿑Ͷۛ͏৖ॶͲ୉͘͏ নࢃࢤ ௌʀ࣊ 15೧ (2008-2023) ਕ޳ɼ ऩགྷɼ‫ڇڛ‬ɼՃ֪΃͹Ӫ‫ڻ‬Ν ஏՃɼ ૱߻దͶ෾ੵ ৿‫ݒو‬஛ ຌ‫ڂݜ‬
6. 6 ଲেஏʁনࢃ֐‫؂‬য়ಕ࿑ ࢤ֙ஏΝώ΢Ϗη͢ͱɼ নࢃ‫ͳߕۯ‬নࢃICΝ‫͛ܪ‬ ஏҮ߶‫֪و‬ಕ࿑ নࢃ‫ߕۯ‬बว͹ཱིஏ‫ۂة‬ নࢃIC͗ۛ͏͞ͳΏ ࠕ‫ޛ‬͹Ԉ৵Ν‫ݡ‬ੀ͓ɼ নࢃߕ෉ۛͶࢩవΝ ֋અ͢Ήͪ͢ɽ ࠕ‫ޛ‬ɼ߶Տۢؔ͗Ԉ৵ ͤΖ͞ͳͲɼনࢃICͶ ޴͖͑൘ૻ͗͠ΔͶส ཤͶ͵ΖͪΌɼ୉ร‫غ‬ ଶ͢ͱ͏Ήͤɽ ཱིஏ΃͹Ӫ‫ڻ‬Νࣖࠨ າ֋௪ 15֋௪ 16 ֋௪ 14 2֋௪ ֋௪ 2ଈಕ֋௪ 2޽ࣆ஥घ 08 ޽ࣆ஥घ ࠅౖި௪঴ ࢝ࠅஏ๏੖ඍ‫ ۃ‬নࢃՑઔࠅಕࣆແॶ. নࢃ֐‫؂‬য়ಕ࿑ʤ‫ߕۯ‬તଈಕ෨ʥͶ ֋௪1೧‫ޛ‬͹੖ඍްՎͶ າ֋௪ 21~༽ஏഛफ
7. घ๑ʁࠫ͹ࠫ๑ʤDiD; Difference-in-Differenceʥ 7 μʖϱ ݅ ͹ॴ஖͹༙ໃ ਬఈଲেʁ‫ ܶܶܣ‬ൌ ‫ܻ ܧ‬௜ ͳ െ ܻ௜ Ͳ ‫ܦ‬௜ ൌ ͳ ൌ ‫ܻ ܧ‬௜ ͳ ‫ܦ‬௜ ൌ ͳ െ ‫ܻ ܧ‬௜ Ͳ μʖϱ ݅ ͗ॴ஖Ν μʖϱ ݅ ͗ॴ஖Ν णͪ͜ͳ͘͹݃Վ ण͜͵͖ͮͪͳ͘͹݃Վ ‫ܦ‬௜ ൌ ͳ ಕ࿑ າॴ஖ ࣰࡏͶॴ஖Νणͪ͜ (=ಕ࿑੖ඍ͹Ӫ‫ڻ‬Νणͪ͜) μʖϱ ݅ Ͷͳͮͱɼ ಕ࿑੖ඍ͗͵͖ͮͪ৖߻͹ౖஏཤ༽ͳ͹ࠫ ॴ஖ ‫ܧ‬ሾܻሿ ‫ܦ‬௜ ൌ ͳ (ॴ஖‫)܊‬ ฑߨφϪϱχ͹Հఈ ‫ܻ ܧ‬௜ Ͳ ‫ܦ‬௜ ൌ ͳ ൌ ‫ܻ ܧ‬௜ Ͳ ‫ܦ‬௜ ൌ Ͳ ΍͢ॴ஖͗͵͖ͮͪ͵Δɼॴ஖‫܊‬ ͳଲল‫܊‬͹ฑ‫ۋ‬ΠΤφΩϞͺಋͣ ͫ͜รԿ͢ͱ͏ͪ ‫ܻ ܧ‬௜ ͳ ‫ܶܶܣ‬ ؏଎Ն೵ ‫ܻ ܧ‬௜ Ͳ ʃ ‫ܦ‬௜ ൌ ͳ ‫ܦ‬௜ ൌ ͳ ؏଎෈Ն೵ ‫ܦ‬௜ ൌ Ͳ (ଲল‫)܊‬ ‫ܻ ܧ‬௜ Ͳ ‫ܦ‬௜ ൌ Ͳ ؏଎Ն೵ ATT (ॴ஖‫܊‬ͶଲͤΖฑ‫ॴۋ‬஖ްՎ) Ν؏଎͖ΔࣟพՆ೵ ‫ݐ‬ൌͲ ‫ݐ‬ൌͳ ఼࣎
8. घ๑ʁαϙʖφพࠫ͹ࠫ๑ (Staggered DiD) 8 ಕ࿑ۢؔ͟ͳͶ੖ඍ࣎‫͗غ‬ҡ͵Ζ = μʖϱͶΓͮͱॴ஖ν΢ϝϱή͗ҡ͵Ζɽ ї ʹ͹μʖϱ͗ʹ͹఼࣎Ͳणͪ͜ްՎ͖ΝۢพͤΖචགྷ͍͗Ζɽ ਬఈଲেʁ‫݃ ܶܶܣ‬ǡ ‫ ݐ‬ൌ ‫ܻ ܧ‬௜௧ ͳ െ ܻ௜௧ Ͳ ‫ܩ‬௜ ൌ ݃ ˆ‘” ‫ ݐ‬൒ ݃ ಕ࿑ າॴ஖ ॴ஖2 μʖϱ ݅ ͗࠹ॵͶ ॴ஖Νण͜Ζ఼࣎ ॴ஖1 ఼࣎ ݃ Ͷॴ஖Νणͪ͜ (=ಕ࿑੖ඍ͹Ӫ‫ڻ‬Νणͪ͜) μʖϱ‫܊‬Ͷͳͮͱɼ ಕ࿑੖ඍ͗͵͖ͮͪ৖߻͹఼࣎ ‫ ݐ‬ሺ൒ ݃ሻ ͹ౖஏཤ༽ͳ͹ࠫ ॴ஖ࡃΊαϙʖφΝ ർֳଲেͶ͢͵͏ ܻ௜௧ ฑߨφϪϱχ͹Հఈ ॴ஖‫܊‬1 ‫ܩ ܶܶܣ‬ଵ ǡ ‫ݐ‬ ‫ܻ ܧ‬௜௧ Ͳ െ ܻ௜ǡ௧ିଵ ሺͲሻ ‫ܩ‬௜ ൌ ݃ ൌ ‫ܻ ܧ‬௜௧ Ͳ െ ܻ௜ǡ௧ିଵ ሺͲሻ ‫ܩ‬௜ ൐ ‫ݐ‬ ˆ‘” ‫ ݐ‬൏ ݃ ‫ܩ ܶܶܣ‬ଶ ǡ ‫ݐ‬ ॴ஖‫܊‬2 ݃ ‫غ‬Ͷॴ஖͠ΗΖαϙʖφͺɼॴ஖ ͠ΗΖ઴͹఼࣎ ‫Ͳ ݐ‬ͺɼͨ͹఼࣎Ͳ Ήͫາॴ஖͹αϙʖφͳฑ‫ۋ‬దͶ ಋͣͫ͜รԿ͢ͱ͏ͪ ଲল‫܊‬ ‫ܩ‬ଵ ‫ܩ‬ଶ ‫ݐ‬ ఼࣎
9. 9 ॴ஖‫܊‬ʀଲল‫܊‬͹અఈ ‡ ॴ஖ʁ֦ۢؔ͹޽ࣆ஥घ ‡ ֋௪઴͹ஊ֌Ͳ΍গཔ͹੖ඍΝ‫ݡ‬ӿౖͪ͢ஏཤ༽รԿ͗ਫ਼ͣ͑ΖͪΌ ‡ ฑߨφϪϱχ͹Հఈ͗੔Εཱིͯͳߡ͓ΔΗΖଲল‫܊‬ΝઅఈͤΖ ϛ΢ϱφᶅ ֐‫؂‬য়ಕ࿑͹ஊ֌దԈ৵Ν ཤ༽͢ɼາ‫ؔۢ༽ڛ‬͹Ԍત Νଲল‫܊‬Ͷઅఈ ‡ ॴ஖‫܊‬ʁ޽ࣆ஥घ͖ۢؔΔ ‫ʹ א ݎ‬ͷͲǡ ͷͲͲǡ ͹ͷͲǡ ͳͲͲͲ [m]Ґ಼͹ μʖϱ ‡ ଲল‫܊‬ʁ޽ࣆາ஥घ͖ۢؔΔಋ൥ ҕ͹μʖϱ ౐ࢤԓวɼकགྷ๎ࣻಕ࿑Ν݃΁ɼ ༽ஏखಚ͗༲ҝɼ౵͹‫ڠ‬௪ͤΖ ஏཀྵదʀ౐ࢤదಝ௅Νཤ༽ɽ ॴ஖ൔ‫ܚ‬500m͹ྭ ଲল‫܊‬ 08 ॴ஖‫܊‬ (΢ϱνʖત) 2ॴ஖‫܊‬ (‫ߕۯ‬ત)
10. घ๑ʁαϙʖφพࠫ͹ࠫ๑ (Staggered DiD) 10 ॴ஖‫ͳ܊‬ଲল‫Ͳ܊‬ਕ޳‫و‬ໝ౵͹ಝ௅͗ҡ͵Ζͳɼາॴ஖࣎͹รԿ͗ҡ͵ΖՆ೵੓ ї ϛ΢ϱφᶆʁ‫ڠ‬รྖ ࢄ࢏ Ͳড়݇Ͱ͜ͱ͖ΔർֳͤΖ μʖϱ ݅ ͗αϙʖφ݃Ͷ଒ͤΖ৖߻1 ‫ܶܶܣ‬ሺ݃ǡ ‫ݐ‬ሻ͹್॑‫݊ئ‬ਬఈྖΝ࢘༽ ௚ ෣ ‫ܣ‬ ܶܶ ݃ǡ ‫ ݐ‬ൌ ܻ௜௧ െ ܻ௜ǡ௚ିଵ െ ݉଴ǡ௚ǡ௧ ܺ௜ ‫ܦ‬௜ ߮ ൈ‫ܧ‬ െ ௚ ‫߮ܧ‬ ‫ܦ ܧ‬௜ ‫ڠ‬รྖܺ௜ ͹ଲল‫܊‬͹ รԿΝ༩଎ (յ‫ؾ‬Ϡυϩ) ௚ ‫݌‬௚ ܺ௜ ͳ െ ‫ܦ‬௜ ߮ൌ ͳ െ ‫݌‬௚ ܺ௜ ݉଴ Ͷ༩଎‫͍͗ࠫޣ‬Ζ৖߻Ͷɼώ΢ΠηΝ ܑ޴ηαΠͲ॑Ί෉͜ͱ଩ͬভͤߴ յ‫ؾ‬Ϡυϩͳܑ޴ηαΠ‫਼ؖ‬͹Ҳ๏͗Ҳ஗ਬఈͲ͘ΗͻɼATTͺҲ஗ਬఈͳ͵Ζɽ ܻ௜௧ ড়݇෉͘ฑߨφϪϱχ͹Հఈ ॴ஖‫܊‬1 ‫ܻ ܧ‬௜௧ Ͳ െ ܻ௜ǡ௧ିଵ ሺͲሻ ‫ܩ‬௜ ൌ ݃ǡ ܺ௜ ൌ ‫ܻ ܧ‬௜௧ Ͳ െ ܻ௜ǡ௧ିଵ ሺͲሻ ‫ܩ‬௜ ൐ ‫ݐ‬ǡ ܺ௜ ˆ‘” ‫ ݐ‬൏ ݃ ‫ܩ ܶܶܣ‬ଵ ǡ ‫ݐ‬ ݉଴ǡீభǡ௧ ܺ௜ ‫ܩ ܶܶܣ‬ଶ ǡ ‫ݐ‬ ॴ஖‫܊‬2 ݉଴ǡீభǡ௧ ܺ௜ ଲল‫܊‬ ‫ܩ‬ଵ ਬఈ ‫ܩ‬ଶ ‫ݐ‬ ఼࣎ େ༽
11. υʖν 11 ΠΤφΩϞร਼ ‡ ౖஏཤ༽ ‫ݒ‬஛֮೟ਅ੧͹ϛ΢ϱφυʖν їௌ࣊͟ͳͶे୒‫౏༽ܧ‬ɼঐ‫౏༽ܧۂ‬ɼ޽‫ܯॄͲ౏༽ܧۂ‬ ‡ ਕ޳ े຿‫خ‬ຌୈீΓΕɼ֦ௌ࣊͹೧࣏ਕ޳Νॄ‫ܯ‬ ‡ ஏՃ ஏՃޮࣖ (ࠅౖި௪঴ౖஏؓఈҗҽճ͗ޮࣖ)ͳஏՃ௒ࠬ(֦౐ಕැ‫ޮͲݟ‬න) ͹ϛ΢ϱφυʖνΝௌ࣊͟ͳͶฑ‫ۋ‬ɽ ྈ఼࣎ͲஏՃ؏଎ஏ఼͗ଚࡑ͢͵͏ௌ࣊ͺঈ֐ɽ ‫ڠ‬รྖ ‡ ஦ৼ෨͖Δ͹‫཯ړ‬ ‡ ॴ஖௜઴‫غ‬͹ਕ޳
12. 12 ݃Վʁ΢ϗϱφηνυΡ ޽ࣆ஥घ͖Δ͹૮ଲ఼࣎݁͟ͳ͹ްՎΝනͤɽ ‫ ܶܶܣ‬ௗ௬௡ ݁ ൌ ෍ ߱௚ǡ௘ ‫ܶܶܣ‬ሺ݃ǡ ݃ ൅ ݁ሻ ௚ ঐ‫ݒܧۂ‬஛֮೟਼݇ ޽ࣆ஥घ͖Δ͹‫ܨ‬գ೧਼ ޽ࣆ஥घ͖Δ͹‫ܨ‬գ೧਼ ฑ‫ॴۋ‬஖ްՎ ஏՃ (ԃ/m2) ʤ༙қ͵ࣆ઴φϪϱχͺ͵͏΍͹͹ʥ ॴ஖઴‫ݰͲޛ‬ঙφϪϱχ͗ଚࡑɽ ї ॴ஖ఈٝΝಕ࿑֋௪ͶรߍͤΖͳɼଁՅ φϪϱχͶรΚΕɼ‫Ͳ݊ئ‬ͺ͵͖ͮͪɽ ‫ܩ‬କద͵৏তܑ޴ʁ ޽ࣆ஥घ௜‫͖ޛ‬Δ৏তܑ޴͍͗Εɼ 10೧ؔ࣍କ
13. 13 ॴ஖‫܊‬ฑ‫ॴۋ‬஖ްՎ͹ਬఈ݃Վ ‡ ૮ଲ఼࣎݁͟ͳ͹ॴ஖‫ްޛ‬ՎΝฑ‫ۋ‬ɽ ‫ ܶܶܣ‬௣௢௦௧ ൌ ͳ ෍ ‫ ܶܶܣ‬ௗ௬௡ ݁ ࣟା ௘‫ࣟא‬శ ‡ ঐ‫ݒܧۂ‬஛֮೟਼݇ɼஏՃ͗Ҳؑͪ݃͢Վ ‡ ஏՃͶͺॴ஖઴‫ޛ‬͹‫ݰ‬ঙφϪϱχ͗ଚࡑͪͪ͢Όɼౕ֮ͺ߶͚͵͏ ‡ ঐ‫ݒܧۂ‬஛֮೟਼݇ͺɼ޽ࣆ஥घ‫ޛ‬Ͷ1μʖϱʀ1೧͍ͪΕ0.43ʛ0.54݇ ͗ଁՅ ‡ 500mώρϓΟͲ͹ܑ޴͹ҡ͵Ζ݃Վͺɼಝҡ͵μʖϱ͗‫؜‬ΉΗͪͳߡ ͓ΔΗΖ
14. 14 ঐ‫ݒܧۂ‬஛֮೟਼݇ͺʹ͞ͲଁՅ͖ͪ͢ ‫ߕۯ‬ત޽ࣆ஥घʀ΢ϱνʖત֋௪ (2014೧ࠔ)ΉͲʁ ‡ ‫ع‬ଚ͹๎ࣻ‫ײ‬તಕ࿑Ԍ͏΃͹ཱིஏ͗໪ཱིͯ ଲল‫܊‬ 08 ॴ஖‫܊‬ (΢ϱνʖત) 13 ॴ஖‫܊‬ (‫ߕۯ‬ત) 2008-2013೧ ‫ߕۯ‬ત޽ࣆ஥घʀ΢ϱνʖત֋௪ (2014೧ࠔ)Ґ߳ʁ ‡ ֐‫؂‬য়ಕ࿑ͶԌཱིͮͪஏ͗ड़‫ݳ‬ɽ ‡ ICबวͫ͜Ͳ͵͚ɼԌતસରͶ෾ාɽ ଲল‫܊‬ 08 ॴ஖‫܊‬ (΢ϱνʖત) 2014-2023೧ 13 ॴ஖‫܊‬ (‫ߕۯ‬ત)
15. 15 ৿‫ݒو‬અ͹‫ۂ‬झ͹ಝ௅ Google MapʀηφϨʖφϑϣʖ͖Δ֦‫ݒ‬஛͹༽౏Ν֮೟ͪ͢ɽ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ݒ‬஛અඍ αϱϑω ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ు‫ـ‬અඍ ༂‫ۃ‬ ༂‫ۃ‬ ऄྈ൤ജ ੣ଆ‫޽ۂ‬৖ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ۂة‬Ө‫ۂة ॶۂ‬Ө‫ॶۂ‬ ཀྵ༲వ ਭಕ޽ࣆ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ༂‫ۃ‬ ղ‫ޤ‬γʖϑη ‫ݒ‬஛અඍ ϧϱχϨʖ ༂‫ۃ‬ ඔ༲Ӆ ଁՅͪ͢ঐ‫౏༽ܧۂ‬͹͑ͬɼಕ࿑Ԍતͺ‫ݒ‬અ‫ंۂ‬͹ࣆແॶΏ૖‫͗ށ‬ଡ͏ ї ࣆແॶ͖Δ‫ٮޒ‬ΉͲ͹ΠέιηΝ॑ࢻͤΖ‫ۂ‬झཱི͗ஏ͢ͱ͏ΖՆ೵੓
16. 16 ৿‫ݒو‬અ͹‫ۂ‬झ͹ಝ௅ ཱིஏ͹ഐ‫ܢ‬ΝߡࡱͤΖͪΌɼ༽౏ஏҮΝ֮೟ͤΖɽ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ݒ‬஛અඍ αϱϑω ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ు‫ـ‬અඍ ༂‫ۃ‬ ༂‫ۃ‬ ऄྈ൤ജ ੣ଆ‫޽ۂ‬৖ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ۂة‬Ө‫ۂة ॶۂ‬Ө‫ॶۂ‬ ཀྵ༲వ ਭಕ޽ࣆ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬ ༂‫ۃ‬ ղ‫ޤ‬γʖϑη ‫ݒ‬஛અඍ ϧϱχϨʖ ༂‫ۃ‬ ඔ༲Ӆ ۛྣঐ‫ۂ‬ ޽‫ۂ‬ ६े‫ڋ‬ ୊Ҳझे‫ڋ‬ ୊Ҳझఁ૜े઒ ޽‫ۂ‬઒༽ ६޽‫ۂ‬ ঐ‫ۂ‬ ୊Ҳझ஦߶૜े઒ ୊್झे‫ڋ‬ ୊್झ஦߶૜े઒ ‡ ‫ߕۯ‬તԌતͺ६޽‫ۂ‬ஏҮɼ୊Ҳझे‫ڋ‬ஏҮΉͪͺࢤ֙Կ௒੖ۢҮ ‡ ΢ϱνʖતԌતͺɼ๼ଈ͗े‫ܧڋ‬ɼೈଈͺࢤ֙Կ௒੖ۢҮ ї ࣆແॶʀ૖‫ཱི͗ށ‬ஏ͢Ώͤ͏ഐ‫ ܢ‬+ ֐‫؂‬য়ಕ࿑ͶΓΖΠέιη޴৏ʃ
17. 17 ߡࡱ 1. ౐ࢤ಼ಕ࿑੖ඍͺबว͹ਕ޳ʀஏՃʀౖஏཤ༽Ͷ୻‫غ‬దӪ‫ڻ‬Ν༫͓Ζ͖ɽ ༫͓Ζ৖߻ɼʹΗΆʹ͹୉͖͘͠ɽ ‡ बว͹ঐ‫ౖܧۂ‬ஏཤ༽͗ɼ޽ࣆ஥घ‫ޛ‬Ͷ1ௌ࣊ʀ1೧͍ͪΕ0.43ʛ0.54݇ଁՅɽ і Aïkous et al. (2023)͹ϠϱφϨΨʖϩ͹౐ࢤ಼߶ଐ͹ࣆྭͳ੖߻ɽ ‡ Ҳ๏Ͳɼ޽‫ۂ‬ʀे୒‫ౖܧ‬ஏཤ༽Ώਕ޳΃͹୻‫غ‬దްՎͺ֮೟͠Η͵͖ͮͪɽ ஏՃ΃͹Ӫ‫ڻ‬ͺɼॴ஖ν΢ϝϱήͶଏ͢ͱ‫͚͵Ͳ݊ئ‬ɼߍ͵Ζ‫͗ৄݗ‬චགྷɽ і ‫ع‬ԡ‫ڂݜ‬͹౐ࢤؔ߶ଐಕ࿑੖ඍͶΊΔΗͪਕ޳͹߭֐Կͺ֮೟͠Ηͥɽ གྷҾᶅ ‫ؔۯ‬ηίʖϩ͹ҩ͏ (౐ࢤ‫ݏ‬஦ৼࢤ಼vs ౐ࢤ‫ݏ‬સର) གྷҾᶆ ࣎ؔηίʖϩ͹ҩ͏ (15೧ vs ਼ॉ೧) གྷҾᶇ ଈಕ + ߶Տ͹ಕ࿑ߑଆ͹Ӫ‫ڻ‬ 2. ౖஏཤ༽͹รԿͺɼಕ࿑Ԍત͹ʹ͹෨෾ͲಝͶ୉͘͏͖ɽ ‡ ICबวͫ͜Ͳ͵͚ɼ৿અಕ࿑ͶԌͮͱ৿‫و‬͹ঐ‫ౖ౏༽ۂ‬ஏཤ༽͗෾ාɽ і μʖωϱήΏஏՃ͹҈͠ͶΓΖཱིஏഐ‫͖ݫ͗ܢ‬Δ͍Ζͳ͞ΘͶɼ ಕ࿑੖ඍͶΓΖΠέιη޴৏͗ՅΚΕɼಝఈࢊ‫ۂ‬Ͷ‫͚ک‬Ӫ‫ͪ͢ڻ‬Ն೵੓
18. ΉͳΌ 18 ‡ নࢃࢤ͹֐‫؂‬য়ಕ࿑੖ඍ͹ஊ֌ద੖ඍΝଲেͶɼ౐ࢤ಼ಕ࿑͗बว͹ ౖஏཤ༽ʀஏՃʀਕ޳Ͷ༫͓ͪӪ‫ڻ‬ΝɼαϙʖφพDIDͲ෾ੵ ‡ ߶ଐಕ࿑बว͹ঐ‫ౖܧۂ‬ஏཤ༽͹ଁՅɼಝͶ‫ݒ‬અ‫ۂ‬͹ཱིஏ֮͗೟͠Ηͪ ‡ ࣎‫ؔۯ‬ηίʖϩ͹ҩ͏ɼಕ࿑ߑଆɼμʖωϱή੏༁ͶΓΕɼ౐ࢤؔ߶ଐ ಕ࿑͹੖ඍްՎͳҡ͵Ζܑ޴͗ଚࡑͪ͢ͳਬࡱ͠ΗΖɽ ࠕ‫ޛ‬͹ఴ๮ ‡ ಕ࿑ߑଆ (߶Տ or ฑ໚)ʀ༽౏ஏҮʀஏՃͶΓΕɼཱིஏϛτϱεϡϩ͹ ޴৏ͤΖ‫ۂ‬झͳ͢͵͏‫ۂ‬झ͗ଚࡑͤΖՆ೵੓͍͗Ζɽ ї ϝέϫ͵υʖνʀ௒ࠬͶΓΖཱིஏқࢧ݀ఈգఖ͹ཀྵմ͗චགྷ ‡ ްՎ͹ҡ࣯੓Ν෾ੵͤΖͶͺɼ෵਼ஏҮ͹ࣆྭΝԥஇదͶ෾ੵͤΖචགྷ ͍͗Ζɽ
19. ࢂߡช‫ݛ‬ 19 ‡ Baum-Snow, N. (2007). Did highways cause suburbanization?. The quarterly journal of economics, 122(2), 775-805. ‡ Duranton, G., & Turner, M. A. (2012). Urban growth and transportation. Review of Economic Studies, 79(4), 1407-1440. ‡ Garcia-López, M. À. (2012). Urban spatial structure, suburbanization and transportation in Barcelona. Journal of Urban Economics, 72(2-3), 176-190. ‡ Garcia-López, M. À., Holl, A., & Viladecans-Marsal, E. (2015). Suburbanization and highways in Spain when the Romans and the Bourbons still shape its cities. Journal of Urban Economics, 85, 52-67. ‡ Baum-Snow, N. (2020). Urban transport expansions and changes in the spatial structure of us cities: Implications for productivity and welfare. Review of Economics and Statistics, 102(5), 929-945. ‡ ৭ీᖔཤग, ଏཱིཀྵࢢ, ࠦ౽‫ืܔ‬, & ঘஓ५࢚. (2022). ౐ࢤؔ߶ଐಕ࿑໤੖ඍ͗ஏ๏෨͹౐ ࢤ‫ݏ༽ޑ‬͹ஏՃͶ‫ͤ·ٶ‬ҾՎްՎ͹ਬఈ. ౖ໨ָճ࿨ชॄ D3 (ౖ໨‫ܯ‬ժָ), 77(5), I_95I_105. ‡ Aikous, M., Dube, J., Brunelle, C., & Champagne, M. P. (2023). Highway expansion and impacts on land use changes: An event study approach. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 119, 103730.