Supply Chain Threat Models

Threat models are often used by security champions to discover flaws in application environments. Many threat models are built through a defensive lens, foregoing realistic attack patterns that reflect adversarial goals vs. simply using a limited, non-mutable threat category. VerSprite's approach to threat modeling uses a unique way to analysize, prioritize, and get visibility into an organization's complete threat landscape. VerSprite's method is called PASTA threat modeling as was pioneered by VerSprite CEO, Tony UV.

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1. Offensive Threat Models Against the Supply Chain
2. Components Raw Materials Retail Manufacturing Consumerism Raw materials are sourced from multiple global locations Raw materials used to make parts found in products Manufacturers assemble products using components from various sources Web, store retailers sell manufactured goods to consumers Consumers use products in home & businesses Defining Supply Chain
3. I have to maintain an RTO that is no more than 30 minutes! We maintain a lot of PII used for shipping...worried how we are keeping that data secure. Supply Chain Threat Models Blueprints for Security Security Blueprint encompasses multiple security/ IT disciplines: • Regulatory Risk Reviews/ Prior Risk Assessments • Business Impact Analysis • Asset Management • Security Hardening • Security Architecture Review • Threat Analysis • Vulnerability Assessment • Penetration Testing • Residual Risk Analysis Threat Modeling Weaknesses ≠ Threats • Inverse of a CWE or CVE ≠ Threat Where’s the data source? Did I secure my WLAN? Rogue assets? 3rd party devices? What’s my attack surface? Default configs on these Windows embedded system? Does my vendor do bounties on their devices?
4. Access Risk Aversion of Threat Agent Capabilities Probabilistic Analysis Intent Rewards Repudiation Threat Motives General Motives & Probabilistic Analysis
5. 3-5 times the value of the cargo, all told, because of opportunity cost of replacement, disruption to schedules, etc. Cargo Loss (COGs Loss) 3 Businesses estimate it takes over 60 hours to respond to a software supply chain attack. Time Loss Lost sales, charges run up by criminals using enterprise resources billed to the company, increased insurance premiums, fines /penalties for unreported breaches, costs of upgrading security, etc) – Average cost of an attack is $1.1 million Financial Loss Impact Considerations 1 2 Could result in deaths if people can’t reach 911 or other vital resources can’t be dispatched to emergencies Human Life/ Societal Loss 6 Threats when the targets are strategic assets (mail service, power grids, trains/roads) National Security Loss of customer trust reputational harm Loss of market share/market cap Associated Losses (Corporate) 4 5
6. Threat Motives Lulz, Practice for another target Misdirection - blame adversary Reduce credibility; revenge; disgruntlement Financing Obtain intel Leverage Data for it Value Shorten Product Development cycles Leverage PII for Impersonation, OSINT Intel of pattern Disruption Frameup - act of framing someone Sabotage Extortion Espionage Data Exfiltration Intellectual Property Sensitive Data Non-sensitive Data Threat Library Supply Chain Threat Library & Motives
7. • Surveys reflect escalating threats observed by 1,000 decision-makers from the public sector, private sector, academia and civil societies All can be impacted by supply chain focused threats and attack patterns • Supply chain threats in these risk areas ca by sanctioned by competing nation states aiming to create instability in the region. • Supply chain threats in these risk areas can be intended as attack vectors where malicious payloads are introduced into critical infrastructure. • Supply chain threats in these risk areas can preface other risks related to social infrastructure, financial markets, leading industries, & overall economy. World Economic Forum 2019 Risk Census
8. Supply chain-based threats look to usher in more long term, covert operations Layered attacks can begin with persistence or intelligence gathering Subsequent attack layers can expand to releasing realizing multiple types of strategic attack patterns: • Extortion by cyber-criminal groups • Denial of service by rival governments, interest groups • IP theft from rising global competitors • Info contamination in order to change public opinion Global Risk Interconnections (2019) Risks Become Interlinked
9. • For supply chain, look at correlated risks with high likelihood • Determine what part of your attack surface is relevant to the threat • Identify vulnerabilities/ weaknesses that live within your attack surface • Build a threat library based upon likely motives • Build an attack library that realize motives in your threat library • Determine success of attack patterns via security research or manual exploit testing Threat Models & Likelihood
10. Source: Annual 2019 Allianz Risk Barometer Report Business interruption topping cyber related incidents Top Industries Affected: • Utility/ Energy • Transportation • Media/ Communication • Financial Trading • Healthcare • Municipalities/ City Governments Importance of building proper threat library for AppSec environments in aforementioned sectors Supply Chain Risks & AppSec
11. Sample Threat Models
12. • The U.S. postal service handles more mail than any other postal system in the world • Retail network is larger than McDonald’s, Starbucks and Walmart combined • Traditionally, the largest provider of last mile delivery in the U.S USPS Threat Model
13. Threat Model Overview Associated Threats Attack Surface Establish Persistence Exfiltrate PII Harvest employee info Extortion Cryptojacking Sabotage Threats Threat Motives Establish persistence across multiple sites in order to leverage infrastructure for multiple objectives. Siphon out PII from analytics platforms in order to harvest and share on black market forums. Collect USPS user info for the purposes of perpetration & illicit access to USPS systems. Hold hostage systems that are responsible for fulfillment of key processing activities, generally via ransomware. Obtain unauthorized access to infrastructure in order to mine crypto currency. Disrupt operations, particularly in areas where there is a single point of failure in order to interrupt USPS services Countermeasures Employees/ Contractors Endpoints Informeddelivery.usps.com Mail Sorters Domain Controllers AFCS Systems Email Network Associated Attack Patterns Collusion | Insider Threat Drive-by-Download | Phishing Injection Based Attacks | Auth Bypass Supply chain compromise |Malicious component Pass the Hash Auth Attacks Supply chain compromise |Malicious component Phishing attacks Network MITM | Botnets Preventive Detective Reactive
14. • High-speed machine used by the US Postal Service to cull, face, and cancel letter mail through a series of automated operations. • Capable of processing 30,000 pieces of mail per hour. • Downtime is escalated if after 10 minutes • Pre-program boards control movement of parcels • Sabotage Example: Time based attack programmed into PLC board Advanced Facer Cancellation System (AFCS)
15. I am here because I love to design presentations. Intro You can contact me at @username Prepare incoming and outgoing mail for distribution. Examine, sort, and route mail. Load, operate, and occasionally adjust and repair mail processing, sorting, and canceling machinery. Keep records of shipments, pouches, and sacks; and other duties related to mail handling within the postal service. Delivery Bar Mail Sorters (DBMS)
16. • High-speed machine used by the US Postal Service to cull, face, and cancel letter mail through a series of automated operations. • Capable of processing 30,000 pieces of mail per hour. • Downtime is escalated if after 10 minutes • Pre-program boards control movement of parcels • Sabotage Example: Time based attack programmed into PLC board Advanced Facer Cancellation System (AFCS)
17. Code, Package, Infiltrate Target components (example): • RSLogix 5000 • RSView Studio • Drive Executive • RSNetWorx • RSSql • Response usually means swapping out PLC component • Advanced attack pattern would be to make code persistent to local filesystem where privileges are inherited. • Most binary files are not signed in similar environments; no assurance • Open Trust Boundaries to other Callers or storage components
18. Motives centered around targets that serve as a single point of failure. *Integer overflow in the _authenticate function in svc_auth.c in Wind River VxWorks 5.5 through 6.9.4.1, when the Remote Procedure Call (RPC) protocol is enabled, allows remote attackers to cause a denial of service . *Complete (There is a total shutdown of the affected resource. The attacker can render the resource completely unavailable.) Threat of Sabotage – Attack Tree Example
19. Supply Chain Target Selection Select Objective • Steal data • Persist in target environment • IP Theft for overseas competitor • Sabotage • Extort • Chaining objectives for more intricate attack plans Target Selection
20. Supply Chain Target Selection Select Objective Steal data Persist in target environment IP Theft for overseas competitor Sabotage Extort Chaining objectives for more intricate attack plans Target Selection
21. Defining Intended Attack Surface Select Objective • APIs • HW components w/ PLC • Environments rich for collusion • Human operators as targets • Components that support Create- Read-Update-Delete rights needed • Components w/ write access to storage locations Vigilance on Target Assets
22. Abusing Trust in Automation Exploiting Weak System/ Component Architecture • Implicit system trust models • No request inspection • No cert validation to compiled code objects • No code inspection • No security assurance in product/ code upstream
23. Sustaining Threats • Personal data continues to be an inherent threat for sources of PII • Probabilistic analysis can be done on events at USPS • For other unrealized threats would required predictive analysis • Sabotage (realized) • Extortion (unrealized) • Cryptomining (unrealized)
24. • Wrap exploitation testing into your threat model • Identify the attack surface that causes intended impact (PASTA Stage II) • Build attack patterns to exercise from threat library developed (PASTA Stage IV) • Correlate identified vulns to attack surface (PASTA – Stage V) • Identify branches of attack that fulfill threat objectives & exploit identified vulns (PASTA – Stage VI) • Conduct exploit testing on these abuse cases to identify viability and factor into probabilistic analysis (PASTA – Stage VII) • 0-Day development against target components that fulfill threat objectives (PASTA - Stage VI) Blueprint for Vuln Identification & Attacks (Prescriptive Guidance)
25. • Identify the attack surface that causes intended impact (PASTA Stage II) • Review what regulatory requirements affect processes or technology components within the scope of your threat model (PASTA Stage II) • Pre-emptively considers regulations in system/ solution design • Inspect & harden controls that reduce attack vectors or vulns (PASTA – Stage II) • Understand where the logical and physical trust boundaries exist for your attack surface (PASTA – STAGE III) • Consider probability values for attack patterns to be successful based upon prevalence of threat intel & data + CVSS (PASTA – Stage VII) • Determine residual risk per attack pattern that is tested against associated vulns, and that correlates to current threat data/ threat advisories Blueprint for Mitigation Prescriptive Guidance
26. Final Thoughts
27. 3-5 times the value of the cargo, all told, because of opportunity cost of replacement, disruption to schedules, etc. Cargo Loss (COGs Loss) 3 Businesses estimate it takes over 60 hours to respond to a software supply chain attack. Time Loss lost sales, charges run up by criminals using enterprise resources billed to the company, increased insurance premiums, fines /penalties for unreported breaches, costs of upgrading security, etc) – Average cost of an attack is $1.1 million Financial Loss Impact Considerations 1 2 Could result in deaths if people can’t reach 911 or other vital resources can’t be dispatched to emergencies Human Life/ Societal Loss 6 Threats when the targets are strategic assets (mail service, power grids, trains/roads) National Security Loss of customer trust reputational harm Loss of market share/market cap Associated Losses (Corporate) 4 5 “Software- and hardware-based supply chain attacks are also trending up… Consequently, monitoring higher layers for behavior indicative of an attack is crucial to obtain better protection against advanced adversaries.” - Gartner June 2018
28. • 2017 saw a dramatic rise in supply chain attacks, over the previous years- 200% increase • Typical attacks costs a business $1.1 million • While physical attackers can hijack a truck, harm a driver, and steal cargo, attacks on payment pages, a company’s IT provider, etc, can lead to much longer-term attacks that may siphon off much more money before they are discovered • Amazon going down costs ~ $230,000+ per minute • More executives report planning to be more directly involved in the planning, detection, and response to such incidents Risks Escalating & Changing
29. Process for Attack Simulation & Threat Analysis (PASTA)
30. Offensive Intel to Consider • Similar to aggregating compromised PII into a marketplace, a marketplace for companies vulns and attack surface exists • Attack Surface profiles for target entities • Government groups, private hacker syndicates for hire most mature in this area The following is currently is being carried out: • Re-calibrating attack surface Attack Surface is a living information source • Steal IP: Identify IP sources from public private repos via logical & human based attacks • Extort: Identify mission critical systems / data sources that have weak redundancy/ failover capabilities • Framing: Create attack pattern with ‘signatures’ of known adversary to target for diversion attacks • Cyberwar: Disrupt critical infrastructure that impedes delivery, social services, communication • Map attack service components to above and maintain DB of vulns associated w/ component nodes Map Threat Objective to Attack Surface
31. Threat Modeling Supply Chain Environments with STRIDE • Threat models necessitate accurate threat libs • STRIDE doesn’t factor in any threat intel/ data • Threat modelers can’t be limited by 6 constant threat classes • Organizing threats less important than substantiating them • Threats, motives, threat actors are unique to industry, business
32. • Leverage a Risk Based approach to threat modeling to blueprint adversarial exercises and simulations • Qualify Threats and incorporate into your model • Substantiate threats with intel and threat data • Where are you weakest against a threat lib for supply chain? • Architecture & Physical Security (low hanging fruit) • Recommend onboarding teams include you to supplier meetings in order to address security assurance • Assess your logical risks for over the network-based attacks • Feed log repos with log events that monitor attack or recon patterns from supply chain threat model • Manage open risks with broader team • Don’t be a security sheep - no one knows your business, industry better than you. Build your own threat library Whitehat Guidance to Supply Chain Threat Models Prescriptive Guidance
33. Tony UcedaVélez CEO & Founder, VerSprite VerSprite.com - Global Security Firm • OWASP Atlanta Chapter Leader (past 10 years) • Author, “Risk Centric Threat Modeling – Process for Attack Simulation & Threat Analysis,” Wiley June 2015 • Passionate global, threat modeling evangelist • Dreams of bankrupting #infosec with intelligent, threat inspired DevSecOps automation