C E ௨৴ٕज़ͷਐԽɺAIٕज़ͷൃలʹΑΓΦϯϥΠϯγϣοϐϯάͷମݧߋʹ্͍ͯ͘͜͠ͱ͕༧͞Ε͍ͯ·͢ɻ·ͨۀք Λࢧ͑ΔΠϯϑϥͷൃలΦϯϥΠϯൢച͕͔ͬͨ͠ΧςΰϦʔͷEίϚʔεԽ͕ओྲྀʹͳ͍ͬͯ͘Մೳੑ͕͋Γ·͢ɻ 2040·ͰʹʰEίϚʔεʱάϩʔόϧࢢ300ஹԁن 13 The next big arenas of competition Exhibit E2 McKinsey & Company ¹Defined as net operating profit less adjusted taxes (NOPLAT). NOPLAT share based on most closely mappable industries from our database of 3,000 companies analyzed in chapters 1 and 2. Source: Company annual reports; McKinsey Value Intelligence; McKinsey Global Institute analysis The 18 potential arenas of tomorrow could generate $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues and $2 trillion to $6 trillion in profits. 1,900–6,100 7,250+ Total 29,000–48,000 (8–11) 18 potential arenas of tomorrow, by 2040 revenue estimate, $ billion 2040 estimate (CAGR, 2022–40, %) Revenue, 2022 AI software and services 230–920 (15–20) 85 1,500–4,600 (17–25) Cloud services 160–510 (10–15) 220 1,600–3,400 (12–17) Electric vehicles 100–320 (4–10) 450 2,500–3,200 (10–12) Digital advertisements 320–580 (15–20) 520 2,100–2,900 (8–10) Semiconductors 340–600 (20–25) 630 1,700–2,400 (6–8) Space 50–160 (5–10) 300 960–1,600 (7–10) Cybersecurity 90–240 (15–20) 160 590–1,200 (8–12) Batteries 40–110 (5–10) 98 810–1,100 (12–14) Shared autonomous vehicles 20–460 (4–20) n/a 610–2,300 Nuclear fission power plants 5–50 (5–30) 18 65–150 (7–13) Drugs for obesity and related conditions 30–100 (25–35) 24 120–280 (9–15) Robotics 20–180 (10–20) 21 190–910 (13–23) Industrial and consumer biotech 10–270 (4–30) 140 340–900 (5–11) Video games 80–180 (15–20) 230 550–910 (5–8) Streaming video 50–150 (10–15) 160 510–1,000 (6–11) Modular construction 20–220 (4–20) 180 540–1,100 (6–10) Future air mobility 10–70 (10–20) n/a 75–340 Profit, 2040 estimate,¹ $ billion (profit margin, %) E-commerce 14,000– 20,000 (7–9) 4,000 280– 1,000 (2–5) 18 future arenas in detail Arenas of today Arena- creation potion Arenas of tomorrow Technical appendix EVs Digital ads Semiconductors Shared AVs Space Cybersecurity E-commerce AI Cloud Batteries Modular construction Streaming video Video games Robotics Non-medical biotech Future air mobility Obesity drugs Nuclear fission ࢀরݩɿMcKinsey the-next-big-arenas-of-competition_ fi nal The next big arenas of competitionɹ2024.10 2024ݱࡏɺ4,000ԯυϧʢ㲈 *60ஹԁʣنͷࢢ͕ɺ 2040ʹ14,000ԯυϧʢ㲈 210ஹԁʣ- 20,000ԯυϧʢ㲈 300 ஹԁʣ·Ͱ֦େ͢Δͱ༧ଌ͞Ε͍ͯ·͢ɻ ͜ͷฏۉʮ7 - 9%ʯʹ૬͠ɺଞͷ࢈ۀͱൺֱͯ͠ ඇৗʹߴ͍ੑΛ͍ࣔͯ͠·͢ɻ͜ͷΑ͏ͳେ͖ͳࢢ֦ େ୯ͳΔطଘࢢͷΦϯϥΠϯԽ͚ͩͰͳ͘ɺ৽͍͠औҾܗ ଶΧςΰϦʔͷग़ΛؚΉɺแׅతͳ࢈ۀֵ৽Λࣔࠦ ͍ͯ͠·͢ɻ “Arenas are industries that transform the business landscape. Eighteen future arenas could reshape the global economy and generate $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues by 2040.” ※1υϧ=150ԁͰܭࢉ October 2024 The next big arenas of competition Arenas are industries that transform the business landscape. Eighteen future arenas could reshape the global economy and generate $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues by 2040. Authors Chris Bradley Michael Chui Kevin Russell Kweilin Ellingrud Michael Birshan Suhayl Chettih Editor Max Berley Data visualization Chuck Burke COPYRIGHT © 180 Inc. All rights reserved. ʛ ϒϥϯυͷ͍Λ͙ɺ॥ܕʢαʔΩϡϥʔʣEίϚʔε