2025 ReSAKSS - Tracking Key CAADP Indicators and Implementation Processes: Mr. Wondwosen Tefera

Mr. Wondwosen Tefera, Senior Associate Scientist at AKADEMIYA2063

Transcript

1. ReSAKSS ANNUAL CONFERENCE Moving the Technology Frontiers in African Agrifood Systems. TRACKING KEY CAADP INDICATORS AND IMPLEMENTATION PROCESSES Wondwosen Tefera, Tsitsi Makombe, Paul Guthiga, and Julia Collins AKADEMIYA2063 January 22, 2026
2. Outline Introduction Progress in CAADP Implementation Processes Progress on CAADP Indicators Conclusion and implication for Kampala period
3. Introduction
4. Introduction CAADP has elevated agriculture on Africa’s development agenda since 2003 Tracking performance enables mutual accountability, learning, course correction, etc The ATOR is the official CAADP Monitoring and Evaluation report
5. Progress in CAADP Implementation Processes: Biennial Review
6. Progress in CAADP Implementation Processes: Biennial Review Biennial Review (BR) is Africa’s main mutual accountability mechanism Four cycles completed; final (Fifth) Malabo BR due in February 2026 Movement in the right direction— but not fast enough Gap between actual performance and targets widened BR score and performance (by BR cycle)
7. Progress in CAADP Implementation Processes: Biennial Review (continued) Data availability and quality remain binding constraints—40% of required data missing in the 4th BR Proportion of missing data in the fourth BR (percent, %) Only a few countries reported low missing data rates What do Malabo CAADP indicators tell us?
8. Progress on CAADP Indicators
9. Progress on CAADP Indicators Malabo CAADP uses a structured results framework (RF) The RF links inputs to outputs and to outcomes (38 indicators) ➢Level 1: Development outcomes (growth, poverty, food security) ➢Level 2: Agricultural transformation and trade ➢Level 3: Policies, institutions, and financing 27 of the 38 Malabo CAADP RF indicators are reported in the ATOR and the ReSAKSS website ➢Considerable overlap with the Malabo BR indicators
10. Progress on CAADP Indicators (cont’d) Africa: Strong growth early CAADP period; stagnation during Malabo $1,584.35 in 2003 to $1,994.12 in 2024 Most growth occurred in earlier CAADP phases Large differences across regions and country groups Wealth creation GDP percapit growth (%)
11. Progress on CAADP Indicators (cont’d) Undernourishment declined early, but rose again during Malabo period due to shocks and conflicts Food and Nutrition Security Child malnutrition declined during Malabo, but remains high Prevalence of undernourishment, average percentage change Prevalence in percent (children under 5 years) Nearly 20% of Africans undernourished in 2023
12. Progress on CAADP Indicators (cont’d) Poverty continued to fall, but at a slower pace during Malabo Poverty remains high in many regions Large differences across regions and country groups Poverty Poverty headcount ratio ($3.00 per day)
13. Progress on CAADP Indicators (cont’d) Agriculture value added grew steadily Agricultural Growth Performance Ag value added growth (annual average, %) Malabo period growth averaged ~3.5% for Africa, below the 6% target Only a few countries exceeded the target
14. Progress on CAADP Indicators (cont’d) Labor productivity improved during Malabo Agricultural Growth Performance Land productivity showed consistent gains Agricultural Labor Productivity Agricultural Land Productivity) Persistent productivity gaps across regions and income groups
15. Progress on CAADP Indicators (cont’d) Trade more than doubled since 2003—far below Malabo target of tripling trade Intra-African Agricultural Trade Consistently below 20% of total African agricultural trade Southern Africa dominates intra- African flows Intra-African agricultural export
16. Progress on CAADP Indicators (cont’d) GAE growth in Africa was highest in the early CAADP period—remained below the 10% CAADP target Government Expenditure on Agriculture Maputo ~3.1%; Malabo 2.5% Very few countries consistently met the 10% CAADP target Beyond the amount, the quality of spending is critical for triggering productivity growth in agriculture Share of GAE in total expenditure (%)
17. Summary and implication for Kampala period
18. Summary and implication for Kampala period Strong gains during early CAADP years; slowing or reversing trends in the Malabo period Agriculture grew, but productivity and trade gains fell short of CAADP ambitions Public investment remained insufficient compared to the target Biennial Review strengthened accountability, yet data gaps persist Shocks exposed vulnerabilities in the agrifood systems Summary: what the evidence shows
19. Summary and implication for Kampala period Strong gains during early CAADP years; slowing or reversing trends in the Malabo period Agriculture grew, but productivity and trade gains fell short of CAADP ambitions Public investment remained insufficient compared to the target Biennial Review strengthened accountability, yet data gaps persist Shocks exposed vulnerabilities in the agrifood systems Summary: what the evidence shows Implications for Kampala Strengthen political will and institutional capacity Accelerate agricultural productivity by prioritizing high impact subsecttors using evidence based NASIPs Leverage AfCFTA to boost intra-African agricultural trade and foster regional integration Increase and improve efficiency of public spending Strengthen national data ecosystem Strengthen agrifood system resilience to shocks
20. ReSAKSS ANNUAL CONFERENCE Moving the Technology Frontiers in African Agrifood Systems. THANK YOU Visit www.resakss.org