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living in the year 2020
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andreas manz
June 25, 2001
Research
2
58
living in the year 2020
... short talk given in Berlin. Hotel Adlon, June 25-26, 2001.
andreas manz
June 25, 2001
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Transcript
Living in the Year 2020 ???
predictions very dangerous non-scientific as good as extrapolations
Example: Club of Rome vs. common sense
how to tackle the world population problem ? exponential
growth since WW2 keep biomass constant miniaturize human body size
extrapolation world population 0 20'000'000'000 40'000'000'000 60'000'000'000 80'000'000'000 100'000'000'000 120'000'000'000
140'000'000'000 160'000'000'000 180'000'000'000 200'000'000'000 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 year
miniaturizing humans body length 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 year
what is this now? nonsense? real possibility?
conclusions for our own research?
micro system technology for the life sciences a few thoughts
Andreas Manz, London
a micro system: what is it? microfabricated device for handling
of molecules and cells engineering a small space
micro chips
bioreactor
biochips, DNA array
on-line phosphate analyser
double stranded DNA separation
why? improved performance handling of small volumes / objects intellectual
property mass fabrication
volume of 1µL 1nL 1pL (1mm)3 (100µm)3 (10µm)3 600,000,000 600,000
600 25 / cm2 2500 / cm2 250 ,000/ cm2 17 min 10s 100ms 1.5 /min / cm2 250 /s / cm2 2,500,000 /s / cm2 # molecules (1nM solution) # volumes In array diffusion time # reactions (diffusion controlled) is a cube of
history 1979 gas chromatograph, Stanford USA 1980´s titration, Twente NL
1980´s blood gas analyzer, Sendai J 1990´s capillary electrophoresis, Basel CH 1990´s polymerase chain reaction, Livermore USA since 1995 exponential growth 2001 no turning point yet
activity today (absolute) 1. USA 2. Japan 3. Great Britain
4. Sweden 5. Switzerland 6. Korea
activity today (per capita) 1. Switzerland 2. Sweden 3. Denmark
4. Netherlands 5. USA 6. Ireland 7. Taiwan 8. Japan 9. Great Britain 10.Korea 11.Canada 12.Singapore 13.Finland
potential applications pharmaceutical industry $$$ chemical industry $$ instrument manufacturers
$$ clinical diagnostics $ environmental 0 ... more
predictions? micro system technology Pressure, acceleration, light, ink jets
market proportional to population saturated already less than 2x until 2020 no new parameters analyzed
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predictions? MST for life sciences DNA, proteins, cells, metabolism
information needs are exploding right now just at the beginning, new parameters information density 1,000,000-times until 2020 new technology needed
products today vs. future
stock market Affymetrix 1’255’000’000 US$ Caliper Technologies 400’000’000
US$ Evotec Biosystems 474’000’000 US$ surprisingly small number of companies, still
last century was the century of physics / engineering will
this century be the century of biology ?
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