living in the year 2020

... short talk given in Berlin. Hotel Adlon, June 25-26, 2001.

Transcript

1. Living in the Year 2020 ???
2. predictions  very dangerous  non-scientific as good as extrapolations  Example: Club of Rome vs. common sense
3. how to tackle the world population problem ?  exponential growth since WW2  keep biomass constant  miniaturize human body size
4. extrapolation world population 0 20'000'000'000 40'000'000'000 60'000'000'000 80'000'000'000 100'000'000'000 120'000'000'000 140'000'000'000 160'000'000'000 180'000'000'000 200'000'000'000 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 year
5. miniaturizing humans body length 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 year
6. what is this now?  nonsense?  real possibility?  conclusions for our own research?
7. micro system technology for the life sciences a few thoughts Andreas Manz, London
8. a micro system: what is it? microfabricated device for handling of molecules and cells engineering a small space
9. micro chips
10. bioreactor
11. biochips, DNA array
12. on-line phosphate analyser
13. double stranded DNA separation
14. why? improved performance handling of small volumes / objects intellectual property mass fabrication
15. volume of 1µL 1nL 1pL (1mm)3 (100µm)3 (10µm)3 600,000,000 600,000 600 25 / cm2 2500 / cm2 250 ,000/ cm2 17 min 10s 100ms 1.5 /min / cm2 250 /s / cm2 2,500,000 /s / cm2 # molecules (1nM solution) # volumes In array diffusion time # reactions (diffusion controlled) is a cube of
16. history 1979 gas chromatograph, Stanford USA 1980´s titration, Twente NL 1980´s blood gas analyzer, Sendai J 1990´s capillary electrophoresis, Basel CH 1990´s polymerase chain reaction, Livermore USA since 1995 exponential growth 2001 no turning point yet
17. activity today (absolute) 1. USA 2. Japan 3. Great Britain 4. Sweden 5. Switzerland 6. Korea
18. activity today (per capita) 1. Switzerland 2. Sweden 3. Denmark 4. Netherlands 5. USA 6. Ireland 7. Taiwan 8. Japan 9. Great Britain 10.Korea 11.Canada 12.Singapore 13.Finland
19. potential applications pharmaceutical industry $$$ chemical industry $$ instrument manufacturers $$ clinical diagnostics $ environmental 0 ... more
20. predictions? micro system technology  Pressure, acceleration, light, ink jets market proportional to population saturated already less than 2x until 2020 no new parameters analyzed
24. predictions? MST for life sciences  DNA, proteins, cells, metabolism information needs are exploding right now just at the beginning, new parameters information density 1,000,000-times until 2020  new technology needed
25. products today vs. future
26. stock market  Affymetrix 1’255’000’000 US$  Caliper Technologies 400’000’000 US$  Evotec Biosystems 474’000’000 US$ surprisingly small number of companies, still
27. last century was the century of physics / engineering will this century be the century of biology ?