Becoming More Curious About the Future: ReadySetFuture_

Presentation of a paper given at the Human Computer Interaction International conference in Washington, DC on July 3, 2024.

This paper shows how a tool that explore future possibilities, ReadySet-Future_, helped a major automotive maker understand how shifts in consumer values may impact the features and use cases that surprise and delight future vehicle consumers in the year 2033. It contrasts two common mindsets when thinking about the future: a there is no alternative (TINA) mindset and a there are many alternatives (TAMA) mindset. The future contains numerous alternatives and possibilities, ripe for exploration and proactive planning.

Read the paper at https://www.academia.edu/121015232.

Transcript

1. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 1 Becoming More Curious About the Future: ReadySetFuture_ Evoking curiosity and exploring future possibilities Cassini Nazir, University of North Texas Kuo-Wei Lee, Georgia Institute of Technology Mike Courtney, Aperio Insights Human Computer Interaction International · HCII2024 Design, User Experience, and Usability · DUXU 3 July 2024 · Washington, DC https:/ /youtu.be/uD4izuDMUQA
2. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 2 All design work negotiates with the future. Introduction “To design is to devise courses of action aimed at changing existing situations into preferred ones.” — Herbert Simon, The Sciences of the Artificial “The future is by no means empty — [It] is already loaded with our fantasies, aspirations and fears.” — Ramia Mazé Herbert, S.A.: The Sciences of the Artificial. MIT Press, Cambridge (1996) Mazé, R.: Design and the Future. Design Anthropological Futures. Bloomsbury (2016).
3. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 3 Countervailing Mindsets • The future will be much like the present. • Underlying assumptions stable. • No work of visualization is needed. • Requires little imagination. There is no alternative (TINA) Two countervailing mindsets about the future: Berlinski, C.: There Is No Alternative: Why Margaret Thatcher Matters. Basic Books, NY (2011). Thatcher felt there was no alternative to the market economy. • The future has many possibilities. • Prevailing assumptions are subverted. • Requires the hard work of visualizing alternatives. • Demands imagination and discovery. There are many alternatives (TAMA) Paul Atreides in Dune discerns future alternatives and traces the best path.
4. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 4 Plausible What may happen Designers are integrating futures thinking into practice. Foresight Process Framework Possible What could happen Wild Card Scenario Preferable What desire to happen Probable What is likely to happen Voros, J. 2003. A generic foresight process framework. Foresight. 5(3). pp. 10-21. The Futures Cone: What’s possible, plausible, probable and preferable. Time Today
5. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 5 Lesser known but equally useful is Dator’s Four Forces model. Foresight Process Framework Dator, J. (1979). The futures of culture or cultures of the future. Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, (369- 388). Model adapted from the Extrapolation Factory Continuation Growth The system stays stable along its current trajectory despite change happening around it. Collapse Decline The system falls apart under the weight of negative forces, but effects may carry forward. Transformation Discipline The former system is discarded in favor of a new structure with a new set of rules. New Equilibrium Transform The primary system is disrupted, forcing a new normal.
6. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 6 Futures work is challenging: resist the push of the present and the weight of the past. The Futures Triangle Inayatullah, S.: Alternative Futures of Genetics and Disability. J. Fut. Stud. 7(4), 67–72 (2003). Fry,T.: Design as Politics. Bloomsbury, NY ( ). Pull of future The Futures Triangle Envision future possibilities. Current expectations based on past understanding. How we comprehend our current reality around us. Push of present W eight of past
7. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 7 A workshop exploring vehicles of 2033. Background Four workshops in summer 2023: • Taught participants how to utilize basic foresight methods. • Created future scenarios and stories on appropriate time horizons. • Challenged present assumptions and identified both possibilities and problems. [[[[ ReadySetFuture_
8. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 8 ReadySetFuture_: Interface Prototype ReadySetFuture.com is an online futures game that helped participants ideate 100+ future vehicle scenarios. AI-generated thought starters provide longer descriptions Prompts capture experiences, consumer needs, and feelings related to the cards in the hand Timeless Needs and Driving Forces cards intersect with other factors that shape the consumer experience
9. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 9 ReadySetFuture_ was one workshop exercise among many. Futures Tools Assumption Reversal(s) “Vehicles have four wheels” “No wheels needed” “Vehicles can fly” EXCHANGE RETRIEVE REVERSE OBSOLESCE TECH Futures Wheel Examines results of a change. Assumption Reversal Alternatives to the predominant paradigm Technology Two Ways Explores technological affordances IDEA/ CHANGE 1 2 2 2
10. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 10 Inspiration behind ReadySetFuture_ Futures Tools The Thing From the Future Candy & Watson, 2015 Create scenarios that incorporate all four cards. Near Future Laboratory Work Kit Bleecker, 2022 Balance optimism, pragmatism, and critics from multiple perspectives First Five Minutes of the Future McGonigal, 2020 Imagine the first moments of a future scenario. e Future Can Be Hard to _______ e Future Can Be Hard to _______ e Future Can Be Hard to _______ e Future Can Be Hard to _______ VERB VERB VERB VERB
11. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 11 Inspiration from past workshop (2019) Introduction Cards Enabling tech Future scenarios Levels of autonomous vehicle
12. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 12 ReadySetFuture_: Gameplay Introduction The Five Suits encapsulate important aspects of modern life that have long arcs into the future and resonate with enduring societal dynamics. Consumer Segment Used to gain consumer mindsets: how they think, feel, act and place value. Timeless Need Used to explore new ways of satisfying current or future needs using technology. Driving Forces Used to explain current trends and explore possible future changes. Emerging Technologies Used to address Timeless Needs and solve problems in new ways. Context & Scenarios Used to explore how small factors impact user experience.
13. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC How all five suits work together in one (long) sentence. Introduction Consumer Segments have Timeless Needs which are affected by Driving Forces that can be addressed with Emerging Technologies —all happening in unique Contexts and Scenarios. Service + Repair Vehicle → Traditionals → Graying of America → Autonomous Vehicles → Learning vehicle →
14. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC ReadySetFuture_: Three prompts Introduction Key Prompt: In 2033, what new experiences might be created using these cards? What are some wants, needs or problems that someone in this situation might have? What are some outcomes + feelings that someone in this situation might have? • Older customers don't want to worry about their vehicle being able function. • Want to be able to complete service/maintenance automatically, e.g. vehicle can drive to dealer for maintenance while customer is at doctor's appointment. • Vehicle should know what it's pre-approved to have completed (e.g. new air filter OK, but replace transmission not OK). • Want expansion from dealer network. • Customer doesn't have to worry about vehicle maintenance/service. • Customer doesn't have to spend their time taking the vehicle for service/maintenance, waiting for the service to be completed, etc. Website AirTable Database • Vehicle predicts the service needed & will make the appointment and take care of vehicle, working around the owner's schedule. • Vehicle knows service/maintenance is required and will drive itself to the dealer for service. • Vehicle schedules other appointments, like dentist or doctor appointments - can drop off customer at "human service appointment" then take care of vehicle service autonomously. • Mobile service company comes to the vehicle when it needs service.
15. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 15 Timeless Needs dislodge us from thinking in terms of current technologies. Introduction Universal human needs ingrained in the context of a domain that transcend temporal and geographic boundaries. Domain Timeless Need Past Present Future The home Clean and odor free We kept the home clean through manual effort and/or hard chemicals Harsh chemical cleaners give some way to natural cleaners ? Mobility Communicate to and from the mobility vehicle We communicated by honking the horn, flashing lights, or through hand gestures Vehicles now sync with the phone, allowing calls and other communication ? Indoor Climate Maintain a comfortable indoor temperature We maintained temperature by building fires or using clothing to keep warm or cool We now use heating, ventilation, and air conditioning units ? Characteristics • Are not based on time, technology, or culture. • Can be a foundation for personas and products. • Free us from thinking in terms of current tech. • Require thinking in longer time horizons. • Complement Maslow's Hierarchy and Pace Layers. • Commonly paired with assumption-reversal activity.
16. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 16 Curiosity: the backbone of gameplay. Introduction trust surprise invitation response reward aha (novelty) play perceive reveal obscure alternative challenge haha A P P R O A C H Nazir, C., & Wang, J.: Designing Curiosity: A Beginner’s Guide. User Experience Magazine: UXPA Magazine
17. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 17 At least eight ways exist to invite curiosity. Introduction create a new moment of discovery invite playfulness through games engage through the senses show over time delay, hide, or tease provide a different view create an appropriate challenge use humor to delight aha play perceive reveal obscure alternative challenge haha A P P R O A C H
18. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 18 At least eight ways exist to invite curiosity. Introduction create a new moment of discovery invite playfulness through games engage through the senses show over time delay, hide, or tease provide a different view create an appropriate challenge use humor to delight aha play perceive reveal obscure alternative challenge haha A P P R O A C H
19. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 19 Delay can ensure our first response is not our only response. Introduction 165 alternatives were identified from the 96 scenarios generated. What are ways… How might we… Problem Solution From To Issue Idea Idea Idea Solution set What else? What else? What else? What else? APPROACH
20. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 20 Strange can be fun. Introduction create a new moment of discovery invite playfulness through games engage through the senses show over time delay, hide, or tease provide a different view create an appropriate challenge use humor to delight aha play perceive reveal obscure alternative challenge haha A P P R O A C H
21. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 21 What is “strange” is a matter of perspective. Introduction APPROACH Rapidly warming climate Ubiquitous surveillance Social media
22. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 22 Participants engaged in strange-making. Introduction Rapidly warming climate Ubiquitous surveillance Social media My vehicle has incognito mode. My vehicle is a refuge in a wildfire. My vehicle contracted a virus. APPROACH
23. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 23 Understand the future from more than just the neck up. Introduction A P P R O A C H create a new moment of discovery invite playfulness through games engage through the senses show over time delay, hide, or tease provide a different view create an appropriate challenge use humor to delight aha play perceive reveal obscure alternative challenge haha
24. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 25 Proper stimuli can help us envision future scenarios. Introduction Lincoln Mark VIII sliding door concept (1993) makes entry and exit easier APPROACH Haval concept video (2015) features multiple mobility options
25. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 26 TL;DR – A summary of our presentation. Introduction 1. Two countervailing mindsets about the future exist: TINA and TAMA. 2. We can resist the weight of the past and the push of the present. 3. We demonstrated aspects of gameplay in ReadySetFuture_. 4. Explored how Timeless Needs dislodge us from current thinking. 5. Identified eight approaches to inviting curiosity about the future. 6. Simple, practical changes: • Use the phrase “What are ways…” instead of “How might we…” • Engage with the strange. • Use the whole body to think about the future.
26. Becoming More Curious About the Future · HCII 2024 · Washington, DC 27 Become more curious about the future… Cassini Nazir University of North Texas cassini@unt.edu Kuo-Wei Lee Georgia Institute of Technology wade.lee@gatech.edu Mike Courtney Aperio Insights mike@aperioinsights.com Download the paper Learn about curiosity