APD Lecture 1 - Course Overview

Transcript

1. Applied Population Dynamics WILD 5700/7700
2. Central Questions (1) What causes spatial and temporal variation in population size and structure? Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 2 / 18
3. Central Questions (1) What causes spatial and temporal variation in population size and structure? (2) How do environmental change and human activities (including management actions) affect population viability? Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 2 / 18
4. Learning objectives By the end of the semester, you should be able to: (1) Develop a population model that Describes variation in demographic parameters over time Predicts how the population will respond to management/conservation actions Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 3 / 18
5. Learning objectives By the end of the semester, you should be able to: (1) Develop a population model that Describes variation in demographic parameters over time Predicts how the population will respond to management/conservation actions (2) Design a study to collect the data necessary to estimate the demographic parameters of the model Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 3 / 18
6. Learning objectives By the end of the semester, you should be able to: (1) Develop a population model that Describes variation in demographic parameters over time Predicts how the population will respond to management/conservation actions (2) Design a study to collect the data necessary to estimate the demographic parameters of the model (3) Use software (e.g., PRESENCE, DISTANCE, MARK) to estimate parameters from field data Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 3 / 18
7. Themes Theory • Population models Practice (Application) • Study design • Data collection • Parameter estimation • Harvest management • Small population management • Population viability analysis Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 4 / 18
8. Example I – Louisiana black bear Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 5 / 18
9. Estimated demographic parameters Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 6 / 18
10. Example II – Black-throated blue warbler Rodenhouse et al. (2003, Proceedings of the Royle Society) Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 7 / 18
11. Example II – Black-throated blue warbler Why are dynamics so different in the southern part of the range? Data courtesy of Dr. RJ Cooper Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 8 / 18
12. Example III – Chiricahua Leopard Frog Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 9 / 18
13. Recovery Plan Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 10 / 18
14. Estimated extinction risk • We estimated extinction probability to be 2% by 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Proportion of sites occupied 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 Metapopulation extinction probability Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 11 / 18
15. Estimated extinction risk • We estimated extinction probability to be 2% by 2100 • What can be done about it? 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Proportion of sites occupied 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 Metapopulation extinction probability Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 11 / 18
16. Estimated extinction risk • We estimated extinction probability to be 2% by 2100 • What can be done about it? Control predators 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Proportion of sites occupied 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 Metapopulation extinction probability Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 11 / 18
17. Estimated extinction risk • We estimated extinction probability to be 2% by 2100 • What can be done about it? Control predators Increase hydroperiod in existing wetlands 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Proportion of sites occupied 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 Metapopulation extinction probability Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 11 / 18
18. Estimated extinction risk • We estimated extinction probability to be 2% by 2100 • What can be done about it? Control predators Increase hydroperiod in existing wetlands Create new wetlands. . . 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Proportion of sites occupied 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 Metapopulation extinction probability Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 11 / 18
19. Extinction risk Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 12 / 18
20. Colonization Probability Maps Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 13 / 18
21. Example IV – South Florida Deer Study Objectives (1) Understand effects of hydrology, hunting, and predation on deer population dynamics (2) Develop a camera trapping study for large-scale investigation and monitoring of deer populations Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 14 / 18
22. Camera study • 180 cameras • Operated since January 2015 • Spanning hunting and hydrology gradients Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 15 / 18
23. Telemetry data >250 deer collared since January 2015 Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 16 / 18
24. Assignment (1) Read Chapters 1 and 2 of Conroy and Carroll (2) Complete the introductory “quiz” found here: https://goo.gl/forms/OpmugP5lmMrrXTIY2 Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 17 / 18
25. Syllabus Applied Population Dynamics WILD 5700/5700L, 7700/7700L Lecture: Mon, Wed 9:05–9:55 AM; Room 4-517 Lab: Mon 1:25–4:25; Room 1-201 Instructor Teaching Assistant Dr. Richard Chandler Heather Levy Office: 3-409-B Office: 3-402 Phone: 706-542-5818 — email: rchandler@warnell.uga.edu email: heather.levy@uga.edu Office hours: Wed 10:00-11:00 & 1:30–2:30 Office hours: Tues 2:00-3:00 Course Description This course will present the theory necessary for understanding wildlife population dynamics, and it will explain how to use theory and data to inform management and conservation efforts. Course Objectives and Learning Outcomes By the end of the course, students should know how to develop models to forecast the impacts of environmental change and management actions on wildlife populations. Students will learn how to design wildlife studies, collect data, and estimate parameters such as abundance, survival, and recruitment. Textbook Conroy, M.J. and J.P. Carroll. 2009. Quantitative Conservation of Vertebrates. Wiley- Blackwell. Digital copies are available for free through the UGA library: http://preproxy. galib.uga.edu/login?url=http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/book/10.1002/9781444303155 Grading Quantity Grade percentage Quizzes 10 10% Lab assignments∗ 13 35% Final paper∗∗ 1 20% Exams 3 30% Class participation 5% ∗Late assignments will be penalized 3 points/day ∗∗Graduate students will analyze a real dataset and summarize the results in their final paper. Academic Honesty UGA Student Honor Code: “I will be academically honest in all of my academic work and will not tolerate academic dishonesty of others.” A Culture of Honesty, the University’s policy and procedures for handling cases of suspected dishonesty, can be found at www.uga.edu/ovpi. Cell Phones and Laptops Cell phones are not allowed during class unless explicit permission is granted. Laptop com- puters should be brought to class for quizzes and exercises. 1 Introduction Examples Assignment Syllabus 18 / 18