Lecture 5 - Harvest models

Transcript

1. Harvest Models
2. Today’s topics Sustainable harvest and geometric growth Sustainable harvest and logistic growth Definition of maximum sustainable yield (MSY) Limitations of MSY Additive vs compensatory mortality Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 2 / 20
3. Sustainable harvest A sustainable (and large) harvest is a common objective in game management Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 3 / 20
4. Sustainable harvest A sustainable (and large) harvest is a common objective in game management Sustainable harvest: A harvest that is balanced by population growth such that Nt+1 = Nt Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 3 / 20
5. Harvest and geometric growth Nt+1 = Nt + Nt r Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 4 / 20
6. Harvest and geometric growth Nt+1 = Nt + Nt r − Ht Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 4 / 20
7. Harvest and geometric growth Nt+1 = Nt + Nt r − Ht where Ht is the number of animals harvested at the end of year t Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 4 / 20
8. Harvest and geometric growth Nt+1 = Nt + Nt r − Ht where Ht is the number of animals harvested at the end of year t What value of Ht achieves equilibrium (i.e., Nt+1 = Nt )? Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 4 / 20
9. Sustainable harvest and geometric growth A sustainable harvest in this context is Ht = Nt r Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 5 / 20
10. Sustainable harvest and geometric growth A sustainable harvest in this context is Ht = Nt r Consequently, the sustainbale harvest rate (h) is: h = Ht Nt = r Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 5 / 20
11. Harvest and logistic growth Nt+1 = Nt + Nt rmax 1 − Nt K − Ht Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 6 / 20
12. Harvest and logistic growth Nt+1 = Nt + Nt rmax 1 − Nt K − Ht What value of Ht achieves equilibrium? Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 6 / 20
13. Sustainable harvest and logistic growth Ht = Nt rmax 1 − Nt K Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 7 / 20
14. Sustainable harvest and logistic growth Ht = Nt rmax 1 − Nt K In this case, the sustainable harvest rate (h) depends on population size Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 7 / 20
15. Sustainable harvest and logistic growth Ht = Nt rmax 1 − Nt K In this case, the sustainable harvest rate (h) depends on population size ht = Ht Nt = rmax 1 − Nt K Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 7 / 20
16. Example when K = 1000 and rmax = 0.1 Ht = Ntrmax 1 − Nt K 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 5 10 15 20 25 Population size (N) Sustainable harvest (H) Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 8 / 20
17. Example when K = 1000 and rmax = 0.5 Ht = Ntrmax 1 − Nt K 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Population size (N) Sustainable harvest (H) Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 9 / 20
18. Maximum sustainable yield • MSY is found when N = K/2 • The actual maximum yield is H = rmax K/4 • The optimal harvest rate is h = rmax /2 Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 10 / 20
19. Is MSY useful in practice? Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 11 / 20
20. Issues Larkin, P.A. 1977. An epitaph for the concept of maximum sustained yield. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 106: 1-11. Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 12 / 20
21. Issues Larkin, P.A. 1977. An epitaph for the concept of maximum sustained yield. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 106: 1-11. • Same assumptions as logistic growth model Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 12 / 20
22. Issues Larkin, P.A. 1977. An epitaph for the concept of maximum sustained yield. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 106: 1-11. • Same assumptions as logistic growth model K is constant No age/sex/individual variation No stochasticity Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 12 / 20
23. Issues Larkin, P.A. 1977. An epitaph for the concept of maximum sustained yield. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 106: 1-11. • Same assumptions as logistic growth model K is constant No age/sex/individual variation No stochasticity • Ecosystem impacts of reducing a population to half its carrying capacity? Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 12 / 20
24. Issues Larkin, P.A. 1977. An epitaph for the concept of maximum sustained yield. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 106: 1-11. • Same assumptions as logistic growth model K is constant No age/sex/individual variation No stochasticity • Ecosystem impacts of reducing a population to half its carrying capacity? • Evolutionary consequences? Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 12 / 20
25. Compensatory mortality Additive vs. compensatory mortality • One possible mechanism giving rise to logistic growth is density-dependence in survival Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 13 / 20
26. Compensatory mortality Additive vs. compensatory mortality • One possible mechanism giving rise to logistic growth is density-dependence in survival • For example, if population size is reduced, survival of the remaining individuals might increase Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 13 / 20
27. Compensatory mortality Additive vs. compensatory mortality • One possible mechanism giving rise to logistic growth is density-dependence in survival • For example, if population size is reduced, survival of the remaining individuals might increase • If harvest is compensated for by improved survival, harvest is a form of compensatory mortality Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 13 / 20
28. Compensatory mortality Additive vs. compensatory mortality • One possible mechanism giving rise to logistic growth is density-dependence in survival • For example, if population size is reduced, survival of the remaining individuals might increase • If harvest is compensated for by improved survival, harvest is a form of compensatory mortality • However, if harvest is not compensated for by improved survival, harvest is a form of additive mortality Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 13 / 20
29. Compensatory mortality Additive vs. compensatory mortality • One possible mechanism giving rise to logistic growth is density-dependence in survival • For example, if population size is reduced, survival of the remaining individuals might increase • If harvest is compensated for by improved survival, harvest is a form of compensatory mortality • However, if harvest is not compensated for by improved survival, harvest is a form of additive mortality If harvest mortality is additive, extra caution is needed to ensure that harvest doesn’t cause long-term population declines. Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 13 / 20
30. Compensatory mortality example Suppose a population of 100 white-tailed deer is subjected to harvest Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 14 / 20
31. Compensatory mortality example Suppose a population of 100 white-tailed deer is subjected to harvest Harvest takes place prior to any natural mortality Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 14 / 20
32. Compensatory mortality example Suppose a population of 100 white-tailed deer is subjected to harvest Harvest takes place prior to any natural mortality Natural mortality occurs in a density dependent fashion, such that survival probability (S) declines as N increases. Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 14 / 20
33. Compensatory mortality example Suppose a population of 100 white-tailed deer is subjected to harvest Harvest takes place prior to any natural mortality Natural mortality occurs in a density dependent fashion, such that survival probability (S) declines as N increases. A simple model is S = β0 − β1 × N Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 14 / 20
34. Compensatory mortality example Suppose a population of 100 white-tailed deer is subjected to harvest Harvest takes place prior to any natural mortality Natural mortality occurs in a density dependent fashion, such that survival probability (S) declines as N increases. A simple model is S = β0 − β1 × N Let’s assume β0 = 0.8 and β1 = 0.005, so S = 0.8 − 0.005 × N Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 14 / 20
35. Individual survival vs. population size 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Population size (N) Survival (S) Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 15 / 20
36. S = 0.8 − 0.005 × N • If 20 individuals are harvested, what is S for remaining individuals? 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Population size (N) Survival (S) Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 16 / 20
37. S = 0.8 − 0.005 × N • If 20 individuals are harvested, what is S for remaining individuals? • How many individuals will remain at the end of the year? 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Population size (N) Survival (S) Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 16 / 20
38. S = 0.8 − 0.005 × N • If 20 individuals are harvested, what is S for remaining individuals? • How many individuals will remain at the end of the year? • How many would remain at the end of the year if no hunting occurred? 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Population size (N) Survival (S) Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 16 / 20
39. Overall survival vs. harvest rate The overall survival rate ( ¯ S) is product of survival throughout the hunting season (1 − h) and survial after the hunting season ¯ S = (1 − h)(β0 − β1 (N − Nh)) Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 17 / 20
40. Overall survival vs. harvest rate 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 β0 = 0.8, β1 = 0.005, N=100 Harvest rate (h) Overall survival rate Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 18 / 20
41. Overall survival vs. harvest rate 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 β0 = 0.8, β1 = 0.005, N=100 Harvest rate (h) Overall survival rate Conclusion: Because harvest mortality is compensatory, the harvest rate (h) can be as high as 0.2 without negatively impacting overall survival. Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 18 / 20
42. Summary Key points • If growth is geometric, sustainable harvest occurs when h = r • If growth is logisitic, maximum sustainable yield occurs at N = K/2 • If survival is density-dependent, harvest mortality can be compensated for by increased survival of remaining individuals (up to a point) • If mortality is additive, extra caution is needed because harvest is adding to natural mortality without any compensation • Managers need to understand population dynamics when setting harvest regulations Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 19 / 20
43. Assignment Read pages 22–25 in Conroy and Carroll Geometric growth Logistic growth Compensatory mortality 20 / 20