The Perils of Prediction

We’re here. We did it. We won. At long last UX is mainstream. But as we march towards our brighter future, let’s take a moment to examine our practice. Our tools, processes and culture got us to where we are today, but what if they aren’t suitable for tomorrow?

Transcript

1. The Perils of Prediction James Box UX Munich 2013
3. Innovation is outpacing design * * a long hunch
4. NO. OF CONNECTIONS TIME COMPLEXITY
5. 1980 2004 8 BILLION PAGES 1998 25 MILLION PAGES
6. 1970s INTEL 4004 2500 PEOPLE 1980s INTEL 286 134,000 PEOPLE 2000s PENTIUM III 32 MILLION PEOPLE 2011 CORE i7 EXTREME 1.3 BILLION PEOPLE
7. “The central act of the coming era is to connect everything to everything. Kevin Kelly, Out of Control, 1994
8. “The value of a telelcommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system. Metcalfe’s Law
10. • Problems of simplicity c17,18,19th • Disorganised complexity First half c20th • Organised complexity Second half c20th until now
11. ““They are all problems which involve dealing simultaneously with a sizable number of factors which are interrelated into an organic whole. “ Warren Weaver, Science and Complexity, 1948.
12. The interconnectedness of everything
13. “I don’t see the Kindle as a device, I see it as a service. Jeff Bezos
14. READER HARDWARE SOFTWARE STORE & MARKETPLACE WRITER
15. Responsive design
16. So, what are we designing?
17. “Always design a thing by considering it in its next larger context – a chair in a room, a room in a house, a house in an environment, an environment in a city plan. Eliel Saarinen
18. Combinatorial explosion
19. ““We abhor complexity, and seek to simplify things whenever we can by whatever means we have at hand.” James Burke
22. Narrative
23. Narrative Fallacy
24. Map vs. Territory
25. We are designing for a VUCA world
26. INNOVATION CONTROL
27. “Beyond a certain critical mass, a building becomes a Big Building. Such a mass can no longer be controlled by a single architectural gesture, or even by any combination of architectural gestures… Rem Koolhaas, Bigness
28. “…This impossibility triggers the autonomy of its parts, but that is not the same as fragmentation: the parts remain commi!ed to the whole. Rem Koolhaas, Bigness
30. “I thought of objects being like biological cells…only able to communicate with messages. Alan Kay, The Meaning of “Object-Oriented Programming
31. Adaptive systems
32. Designing for emergence
34. • New vocabulary • Blocks, not buildings • Stewardship • Prototype • Just-enoughism • Desire lines • Wabi sabi
35. 1. New vocabulary
36. COMPS PAGES SPECIFICATIONS SITES
37. COMPS LANGUAGE PAGES PATTERNS SPECIFICATIONS PROTOTYPES SITES SERVICES
38. PLANNING PREDICTION NEGOTIATION CONTROL
39. PLANNING LEARNING PREDICTION ADAPTATION NEGOTIATION COLLABORATION CONTROL DISTRIBUTION
40. 2. Blocks, not buildings
43. onality traits are… , non-judgemental, like mine (as a ay it… smile while telling me something I , or at least am happy to know. day it… n, clichés, patronises me and makes pid. Worse still, it tries to sales pitch as advice. me by nding people other than Family.co.uk bering who I am and what I like. y I love it!) familynest.co.uk… Rejects jargon Financial organisations are plagued by nuanced terminology that confuses, patronises and ultimately excludes its intended audience. You won't find that here. And if you do, you're welcome to wrap our knuckles. Enables We aim to give our users the confidence to make informed decisions about their family finances. Is honest and impartial We're not here to sell you. You get enough of that from other companies. Any advice we give will be honest, even if that means recommending our competitors. Focuses on quality not quantity We know parents have limited time (most of us are parents ourselves) and are already bombarded by demands for their attention and money. We promise to keep it short and not outstay our welcome. Provides content of distinction Offers a collection of content that cannot be seen elsewhere in an engaging, easy to consume format. Design Principles
44. 3. Stewardship
45. ““In this operational model the lead designer need not play the role of Maestro. Rather, they initiate the design process with a provocation and continually curate the results. It’s more like editing a live broadcast than it is painting an image.” Bryan Boyer, Brute Force Architecture & its Discontents
46. 4. Prototype
47. USER EVIDENCE USER RESEARCH DESIGN THEORY
48. 5. Just–enoughism
50. 6. Desire Lines
52. 7. Wabi sabi
54. Thanks.
55. Icons • Telephone. Designed by Proletkult Graphik • China. Designed by Designed by James Keuning • City. Designed by Rémy Médard, from The Noun Project • Theatre. Designed by Jonathan C. Dietrich • Colosseum. Designed by Designed by Mark Macrory • Referigerator. Designed by Ambar Bhusari • Cell phone. Designed by Designed by Marwa Boukarim Courtesy of The Noun Project
56. Elsewhere • h p://people.physics.anu.edu.au/~tas110/Teaching/Lectures/ L1/Material/WEAVER1947.pdf • h p://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJmGrNdJ5Gw • h p://www.dachisgroup.com/2012/02/wrangling-complexity- the-service-oriented-company/ • h p://etc.ohiswearesure.com/2012/05/brute-force- architecture/ • h ps://vimeo.com/51132200 • h p://www.steelwedge.com/blog/control-and-growth-tipping- the-balance-in-a-vuca-world.html