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Black Swans: What They Can Teach Us about the F...
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Lauren Tan
October 22, 2015
Technology
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Black Swans: What They Can Teach Us about the Future
DockYard hallway talk.
Lauren Tan
October 22, 2015
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Transcript
Black Swans h D O C K YA R D
h What they can teach us about the future
Lauren Elizabeth Tan @sugarpirate_ @poteto
“Rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno” –Juvenal
“A rare bird in the lands and very much like
a black swan” –Juvenal
None
None
None
“A rare bird in the lands and very much like
a black swan” –Juvenal
None
None
One single observation
Black Swan
–Donald Rumsfeld “There are known knowns. These are things we
know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.”
None
I. Is an outlier II.Has extreme impact III.Retrospective predictability
Black Swans explain almost everything
World War I
I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with
the benefit of hindsight
The Internet
I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with
the benefit of hindsight
9/11
I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with
the benefit of hindsight
MH17 / 370
Sub-prime mortgage crisis
Challenger
etc.
The Problem of Induction
Some men are doctors. Some doctors are tall. Therefore, some
men are tall.
If it rains, the street will be wet. The street
is wet. Therefore, it rained.
Half of my foreign neighbors are illegal immigrants. Therefore, half
of immigrants come illegally.
If P⇒Q and Q⇒R are true Then P→R is true
None
What we think we know
None
None
What is "normal"?
None
None
None
None
80/20 https://youtu.be/fCn8zs912OE?t=194
20% of people hold 80% of all wealth
20% of businesses generate 80% of all profits
None
Rule of 70
If your savings increase by 10% every year
Your savings will double in 7 years
How to think about the future
Moore's Law
None
Artificial Intelligence?
Artificial Super Intelligence
Artificial Super Intelligence
I. Will be an outlier II.Will have extreme impact III.Probably
predictable after the fact
How long until computers have the same power as the
human brain? https://youtu.be/MRG8eq7miUE
2025
How long until computers are twice as smart as humans?
2026
At what point were computers half as smart as humans?
2024
The future
None
None
None
None
None
Solar Energy
Solar Energy
Solar Energy
Solar Energy
Solar Energy
Singularity?
fin.