The Consolations of Complexity

Learning about complexity has changed the way I think about what I do. It's helped me appreciate why certain ways of working feel more effective and more natural to me. It's helped me act (and not act) more decisively. It's helped me better understand the weird, sometimes irrational world of government. Above all, it's made me feel a whole lot better and more positive about stuff.

First given at SDinGov - 29th September 2022
https://govservicedesign.net/programme/consolations-complexity-or-how-i-learned-stop-worrying-love-chaos

Transcript

1. The Consolations of Complexity SDinGov — 29th September 2022
3. Tom Morgan Lead Designer
4. previously… on Tom’s career
5. the consolations of complexity @tsmz • a lot of time working on web things • a lot of time advocating for UCD • a lot of time failing to do it before 2015
6. I started working in Government 2015
7. the consolations of complexity @tsmz • sense of purpose • lots of open goals for design • fit my skills & experience • the argument had been won
8. Then things started to get hard
13. complicated /ˈkɒmplɪkeɪtɪd/ adjective 1. consisting of many interconnecting parts or elements; intricate. "a complicated stereo system" complex /ˈkɒmplɛks/ adjective 1. consisting of many different and connected parts. "a complex network of water channels"
14. Rainforest / Ferrari
15. It’s like the difference between, say, a Ferrari and the Brazilian rainforest. Ferraris are complicated machines, but an expert mechanic can take one apart and reassemble it without changing a thing. The car is static, and the whole is the sum of its parts. The rainforest, on the other hand, is in constant flux—a species becomes extinct, weather patterns change, an agricultural project reroutes a water source—and the whole is far more than the sum of its parts. This is the realm of ‘unknown unknowns,’ and it is the domain to which much of contemporary business has shifted.” — Dave Snowden “
16. The Cynefin Framework
17. kuh-NEV-in (WELSH WORDS FTW BTW) “habitat” “place of your multiple belongings”
18. The Cynefin Framework
24. How does this relate to my work?
25. problems anyone could probably solve, admin & logistics problems I can solve using my knowledge of design, my skills and expertise as a designer. problems I solve with user-centred design, eg. user research, prototypes, hypotheses, iteration & co-design etc JFDI
27. The organisation around me was acting as if the problem was complicated
29. what is complexity?
30. the consolations of complexity @tsmz chaos theory
31. the consolations of complexity @tsmz strange patterns and unpredictable behaviour
32. complex adaptive systems
33. nonlinear dynamics
34. cause effect
35. cause effect
36. cause effect
37. cause effect
38. cause effect effect effect effect
39. the consolations of complexity @tsmz everything is in constant flux
40. the consolations of complexity @tsmz everything affects everything else
41. ecosystems
42. the consolations of complexity @tsmz susceptible to feedback loops
43. stock markets
44. the consolations of complexity @tsmz things are unpredictable
45. emergence
47. the consolations of complexity @tsmz there is no central control, no leader
48. the consolations of complexity @tsmz whole is more than the sum of the parts
50. “The entire mound—insects plus structure—is thus a living thing: a self-regulating physiological and cognitive system, with a sense of its own boundaries, a memory, and a kind of collective intentionality.”
51. emergent properties complex adaptive systems entangled constantly changing unpredictable nonlinear feedback loops self- organising uncontrollable
53. the consolations of complexity @tsmz is the design of government services a complex problem?
54. the consolations of complexity @tsmz is the organisation I’m working in a complex system?
55. government is a complex system
56. the consolations of complexity @tsmz • my place within it • the work I was doing • the effect it would have
57. working in a complex environment
58. we expect problems to be like dragons that once slain will leave us to live happily ever after
59. the consolations of complexity @tsmz problems are perennial, ever changing and need constant attention
60. gardening the problem
61. we expect success to be something that will happen at some point in the future
62. the consolations of complexity @tsmz we cannot control the future so we must think differently about success
63. success as balance
64. We expect to clearly see the results of the things we do
65. the consolations of complexity @tsmz we might never know the effects we’ve caused, but we will always have an effect
66. a butterfly flaps its wings
67. We expect the thing that worked last time to work again this time
68. the consolations of complexity @tsmz the same cause could have a different effect, but also new opportunities to affect things will always arise
69. the same river twice
71. “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” — George Box
72. the consolations of complexity @tsmz All user needs are wrong but some are useful
73. the consolations of complexity @tsmz All personas are wrong but some are useful
74. the consolations of complexity @tsmz All prototypes are wrong but some are useful
75. the consolations of complexity @tsmz All maps are wrong but some are useful
76. useful needs balance
77. useful keeps changing
78. useful needs constant attention
79. useful in ways you didn’t expect
80. the consolations of complexity @tsmz All metaphors are wrong but some are useful
82. the consolations of complexity @tsmz They are undoubtedly wrong but they have been useful in enabling me to maintain a little bit of that initial optimism and resilience in the face of the complexity of Government.
84. the consolations of complexity @tsmz thank you! @tsmz