Early Stage Investing: 1999 All Over Again?

Transcript

1. Early Stage Investing: 1999 All Over Again? tytusm@frescoca.com
2. DISCLAIMER Source of all data in this presentation: wild guesses and random numbers found on the Internet.
3. Why 1999?
4. Because 2001
5. Basics: Cost of Build 1999 2012 Software >US$5mln <US$50k Hardware >US$30mln <US$1mln
6. Basics: Time to Market 1999 2012 Software 24 months 6 months Hardware 48 months 18 months
7. Basics: Market Size 1999 2012 Mobile subs 500mln 6bn Internet users 250mln 2.5bn Social users what? 1.2bn
8. Basics: Massive Change 1999 2012 Cost of build 50x cheaper Time to market 3x faster Market size 10x bigger
9. Basics: Hard to Comprehend 1999 2012 Total change ~1,500x improvement
10. Capital: VC Investment 1999 2012 US ~US$38bn ~US$36bn Outside US ~US$12bn ~US$17bn Global Total ~US$50bn ~US$53bn
11. Capital: Angel Investment 1999 2012 US ~US$36bn ~US$25bn Outside US ~US$8bn ~US$15bn Global Total ~US$44bn ~US$40bn
12. Capital: Some Comparisons 1999 2012 Global R&D ~US$550bn ~US$1,400bn Global capex ~US$7,000bn ~US$16,000bn Global GDP ~US$32,000bn ~US$69,000bn
13. Capital: Less Than Hyped 1999 2012 VC 10-12 year hangover Angel Guesstimate an entire generation was burned
14. Wildcards: Emerging Areas Some Examples as of 2011 Genomics 30k human genomes sequenced 3D printing 30k 3D printers installed base Space 500 visitors to space
15. Wildcards: Coming Soon Within 0-12 Months Genomics US$1,000 genome sequencing 3D printing US$200 3D printer Space US$500 rent a satellite / week
16. Wildcards: New Possibilities Fearless Predictions for 2020 Genomics 1bn human genomes sequenced 3D printing 100mln 3D printers installed base Space 10mln people rented a satellite
17. Conclusion: 1999 vs. 2012 Not Even Close Basics 1,500x improvement Capital Less than hyped Wildcards New possibilities
18. “Compared with what we ought to be, we are only half-awake.” - William James tytusm@frescoca.com